AAON
Analysis Results
| Intrinsic Value | $116.30 |
|---|---|
| Latest Price | $90.19 |
| Relative Value | 22% undervalued |
Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
New TickerAnalysis Details
Growth Rate Projection
An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.8%.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
The calculated WACC is 3.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.
Value of Future Flows
Assuming a growth rate of 17.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.
The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.
| Year | Future flow (million) | Present value (million) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 120 | 116 |
| 2024 | 142 | 131 |
| 2025 | 167 | 149 |
| 2026 | 197 | 169 |
| 2027 | 232 | 192 |
Terminal Value
Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 6960 million. This corresponds to a present value of 5560 million.
Intrinsic Value Per Share
The total present value of the projected cash flows is 758 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 6310 million.
There are presently 54.3 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 116.3.
Financial Statements
The following data was to determine the past cash flows.
| Current Assets | 349,116,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 5,451,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 145,567,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 198,098,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 69,645,000 |
| EBIT | 126,749,000 |
| Tax Provision | 24,157,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 35,430,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -76,024,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 131,213,138 |
| Current Assets | 218,080,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 2,859,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 86,768,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 128,453,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 46,260,000 |
| EBIT | 69,232,000 |
| Tax Provision | 10,424,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 30,416,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -55,362,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 80,114,466 |
| Current Assets | 220,251,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 79,025,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 59,033,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 82,193,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -22,531,000 |
| EBIT | 95,358,000 |
| Tax Provision | 22,966,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 25,634,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -67,802,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 9,183,228 |
| Current Assets | 187,549,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 26,797,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 56,028,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 104,724,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 13,928,000 |
| EBIT | 67,348,000 |
| Tax Provision | 13,320,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 22,766,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -37,166,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 53,493,007 |
| Current Assets | 140,861,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 1,994,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 48,071,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 90,796,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 17,548,000 |
| EBIT | 55,778,000 |
| Tax Provision | 13,367,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 17,655,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -37,268,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 40,384,472 |
| Current Assets | 153,727,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 30,414,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 50,065,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 73,248,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 15,057,000 |
| EBIT | 74,148,000 |
| Tax Provision | 19,994,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 15,007,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -41,713,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 42,597,331 |
| Current Assets | 140,981,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 43,748,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 39,042,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 58,191,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 7,823,000 |
| EBIT | 79,529,000 |
| Tax Provision | 26,615,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 13,035,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -26,604,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 47,321,718 |
| Current Assets | 124,213,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 30,432,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 43,413,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 50,368,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 2,020,000 |
| EBIT | 71,243,000 |
| Tax Provision | 25,611,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 11,741,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -20,967,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 38,460,464 |
| Current Assets | 131,083,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 40,022,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 42,713,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 48,348,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 7,289,000 |
| EBIT | 67,701,000 |
| Tax Provision | 24,088,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 11,553,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -16,127,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 46,520,362 |
| Current Assets | 113,623,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 36,235,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 36,329,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 41,059,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -1,751,000 |
| EBIT | 55,803,000 |
| Tax Provision | 18,747,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 12,312,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -9,041,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 38,739,512 |
| Current Assets | 91,546,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 9,111,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 39,625,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 42,810,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -7,452,000 |
| EBIT | 44,238,000 |
| Tax Provision | 16,868,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 13,407,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14,147,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 19,208,069 |
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