DCF Tool

ADM

Archer Daniels Midland Co. – Flour Milling
ADM unlocks the power of nature to provide access to nutrition worldwide. With industry-advancing innovations, a complete portfolio of ingredients and solutions to meet any taste, and a commitment to sustainability, ADM gives customers an edge in solving the nutritional challenges of today and tomorrow. ADM is a global leader in human and animal nutrition and the world's premier agricultural origination and processing company. Its breadth, depth, insights, facilities and logistical expertise give ADM unparalleled capabilities to meet needs for food, beverages, health and wellness, and more.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $304.97
Latest Price $87.38
Relative Value 71% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 15.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 15.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 3.81 3.62
2023 4.41 3.97
2024 5.09 4.36
2025 5.89 4.79
2026 6.81 5.25
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 204 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 150 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 22.0 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 172 billion.

There are presently 563.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 304.97.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 31,909,000,000
Current Cash 943,000,000
Current Liabilities 21,948,000,000
Current Debt 1,528,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 10,546,000,000
Change in NCWC 64,000,000
EBIT 3,588,000,000
Tax Provision 578,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 996,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,169,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,853,022,336
Current Assets 27,286,000,000
Current Cash 666,000,000
Current Liabilities 18,182,000,000
Current Debt 2,044,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 10,482,000,000
Change in NCWC 2,512,000,000
EBIT 2,345,000,000
Tax Provision 101,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 976,000,000
Capital Expenditure -823,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,884,219,330
Current Assets 21,347,000,000
Current Cash 852,000,000
Current Liabilities 13,734,000,000
Current Debt 1,209,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 7,970,000,000
Change in NCWC 471,000,000
EBIT 2,108,000,000
Tax Provision 209,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 993,000,000
Capital Expenditure -828,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,466,561,712
Current Assets 20,588,000,000
Current Cash 2,003,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,776,000,000
Current Debt 690,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 7,499,000,000
Change in NCWC 78,000,000
EBIT 2,534,000,000
Tax Provision 245,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 941,000,000
Capital Expenditure -842,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,409,626,213
Current Assets 19,925,000,000
Current Cash 804,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,570,000,000
Current Debt 870,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 7,421,000,000
Change in NCWC 37,000,000
EBIT 1,969,000,000
Tax Provision 7,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 924,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,049,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,872,433,809
Current Assets 21,045,000,000
Current Cash 915,000,000
Current Liabilities 13,173,000,000
Current Debt 427,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 7,384,000,000
Change in NCWC 310,000,000
EBIT 1,931,000,000
Tax Provision 534,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 900,000,000
Capital Expenditure -882,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,693,053,787
Current Assets 21,829,000,000
Current Cash 1,348,000,000
Current Liabilities 13,505,000,000
Current Debt 98,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 7,074,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,870,000,000
EBIT 2,400,000,000
Tax Provision 438,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 882,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,125,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -173,245,183
Current Assets 26,028,000,000
Current Cash 1,614,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,602,000,000
Current Debt 132,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 8,944,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,897,000,000
EBIT 3,233,000,000
Tax Provision 877,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 894,000,000
Capital Expenditure -894,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 430,140,255
Current Assets 28,530,000,000
Current Cash 3,554,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,658,000,000
Current Debt 1,523,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 10,841,000,000
Change in NCWC -3,805,000,000
EBIT 2,541,000,000
Tax Provision 670,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 909,000,000
Capital Expenditure -913,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -2,109,141,304
Current Assets 26,954,000,000
Current Cash 1,467,000,000
Current Liabilities 14,626,000,000
Current Debt 3,785,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 14,646,000,000
Change in NCWC -339,000,000
EBIT 2,514,000,000
Tax Provision 523,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 848,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,477,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 801,058,356

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