DCF Tool

ALGN

Align Technology, Inc. – Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing
Align Technology designs, manufactures and offers the Invisalign® system, the most advanced clear aligner system in the world, iTero® intraoral scanners and services, and exocad CAD/CAM software. These technology building blocks enable enhanced digital orthodontic and restorative workflows to improve patient outcomes and practice efficiencies for over 200 thousand doctor customers, and is key to accessing Align's 500 million consumer market opportunity worldwide. Align has helped doctors treat over 9.6 million patients with the Invisalign system and is driving the evolution in digital dentistry through the Align Digital Platform, its integrated suite of unique, proprietary technologies and services delivered as a seamless, end-to-end solution for patients and consumers, orthodontists and GP dentists, and lab/partners.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $52.98
Latest Price $275.04
Relative Value 419% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 14.9%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 12.5%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 14.9%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 320 284
2023 367 291
2024 422 297
2025 485 304
2026 558 310
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 5440 million. This corresponds to a present value of 2690 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1490 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 4180 million.

There are presently 78.8 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 52.98.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,494,075,000
Current Cash 1,171,342,000
Current Liabilities 1,924,071,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -601,338,000
Change in NCWC -164,432,000
EBIT 976,400,000
Tax Provision 240,403,000
Depreciation and Amortization 108,729,000
Capital Expenditure -401,098,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 287,749,773
Current Assets 1,849,538,000
Current Cash 960,843,000
Current Liabilities 1,325,601,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -436,906,000
Change in NCWC -230,728,000
EBIT 387,171,000
Tax Provision -1,396,939,000
Depreciation and Amortization 93,538,000
Capital Expenditure -154,916,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 95,065,000
Current Assets 1,633,419,000
Current Cash 868,627,000
Current Liabilities 970,970,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -206,178,000
Change in NCWC -81,225,000
EBIT 506,955,000
Tax Provision 112,347,000
Depreciation and Amortization 78,990,000
Capital Expenditure -149,707,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 252,414,344
Current Assets 1,302,479,000
Current Cash 735,359,000
Current Liabilities 692,073,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -124,953,000
Change in NCWC -62,598,000
EBIT 457,871,000
Tax Provision 57,723,000
Depreciation and Amortization 54,727,000
Capital Expenditure -223,312,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 168,975,965
Current Assets 1,157,003,000
Current Cash 721,542,000
Current Liabilities 497,816,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -62,355,000
Change in NCWC -20,742,000
EBIT 350,392,000
Tax Provision 130,162,000
Depreciation and Amortization 37,739,000
Capital Expenditure -195,695,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 45,559,469
Current Assets 952,978,000
Current Cash 640,256,000
Current Liabilities 354,335,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -41,613,000
Change in NCWC 25,344,000
EBIT 247,237,000
Tax Provision 51,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 24,002,000
Capital Expenditure -70,576,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 173,456,230
Current Assets 732,010,000
Current Cash 527,295,000
Current Liabilities 271,672,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -66,957,000
Change in NCWC -67,648,000
EBIT 188,634,000
Tax Provision 42,081,000
Depreciation and Amortization 18,004,000
Capital Expenditure -53,451,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 42,885,240
Current Assets 657,160,000
Current Cash 454,658,000
Current Liabilities 201,811,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 691,000
Change in NCWC 1,346,000
EBIT 193,576,000
Tax Provision 44,537,000
Depreciation and Amortization 17,856,000
Capital Expenditure -24,092,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 143,398,719
Current Assets 544,676,000
Current Cash 369,993,000
Current Liabilities 175,338,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -655,000
Change in NCWC 4,194,000
EBIT 161,225,000
Tax Provision 28,844,000
Depreciation and Amortization 16,825,000
Capital Expenditure -19,412,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 112,902,605
Current Assets 485,793,000
Current Cash 334,871,000
Current Liabilities 155,771,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -4,849,000
Change in NCWC 6,522,000
EBIT 122,183,000
Tax Provision 25,605,000
Depreciation and Amortization 17,811,000
Capital Expenditure -38,333,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 71,069,783

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