ALRM
Analysis Results
| Intrinsic Value | $57.87 |
|---|---|
| Latest Price | $62.04 |
| Relative Value | 7% overvalued |
Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
New TickerAnalysis Details
Growth Rate Projection
An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.3%.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
The calculated WACC is 8.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.
Value of Future Flows
Assuming a growth rate of 17.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.
The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.
| Year | Future flow (million) | Present value (million) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 125 | 115 |
| 2024 | 146 | 124 |
| 2025 | 171 | 134 |
| 2026 | 201 | 145 |
| 2027 | 236 | 156 |
Terminal Value
Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 3640 million. This corresponds to a present value of 2210 million.
Intrinsic Value Per Share
The total present value of the projected cash flows is 673 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 2890 million.
There are presently 49.9 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 57.87.
Financial Statements
The following data was to determine the past cash flows.
| Current Assets | 891,088,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 622,165,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 164,936,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 103,987,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 26,327,000 |
| EBIT | 51,037,000 |
| Tax Provision | 962,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 42,728,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -28,640,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 90,584,444 |
| Current Assets | 917,620,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 710,621,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 129,339,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 77,660,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 23,949,000 |
| EBIT | 61,572,000 |
| Tax Provision | -5,106,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 40,647,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -15,424,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 110,744,000 |
| Current Assets | 397,414,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 253,459,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 90,244,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 53,711,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 5,461,000 |
| EBIT | 56,298,000 |
| Tax Provision | 3,500,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 37,290,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -16,141,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 80,449,878 |
| Current Assets | 243,674,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 119,629,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 75,795,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 48,250,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 41,518,000 |
| EBIT | 50,413,000 |
| Tax Provision | 5,566,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 22,834,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -19,324,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 90,676,690 |
| Current Assets | 228,063,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 146,061,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 75,270,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 6,732,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -16,372,000 |
| EBIT | 12,202,000 |
| Tax Provision | -9,825,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 22,621,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11,015,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 7,436,000 |
| Current Assets | 163,936,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 96,329,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 44,503,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 23,104,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 13,253,000 |
| EBIT | 33,374,000 |
| Tax Provision | 2,990,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 18,699,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10,464,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 51,766,926 |
| Current Assets | 190,184,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 140,634,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 39,699,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 9,851,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 6,238,000 |
| EBIT | 14,058,000 |
| Tax Provision | 4,227,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 7,276,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -9,055,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 14,384,939 |
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.