DCF Tool

ALRM

Alarm.com Holdings Inc – Software Publishers
Alarm.com is the leading platform for the intelligently connected property. Millions of consumers and businesses depend on Alarm.com's technology to manage and control their property from anywhere. Alram,com's platform integrates with a growing variety of Internet of Things (IoT) devices through its apps and interfaces. Its security, video, access control, intelligent automation, energy management, and wellness solutions are available through a network of thousands of professional service providers in North America and around the globe.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $107.34
Latest Price $48.86
Relative Value 54% undervalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Ad
Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
%
%
%
New Ticker
Ad
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 32.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 32.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 147 136
2023 195 166
2024 259 202
2025 343 247
2026 454 301
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 7050 million. This corresponds to a present value of 4310 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1050 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 5360 million.

There are presently 49.9 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 107.34.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 917,620,000
Current Cash 710,621,000
Current Liabilities 129,339,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 77,660,000
Change in NCWC 23,949,000
EBIT 61,572,000
Tax Provision -5,106,000
Depreciation and Amortization 40,647,000
Capital Expenditure -15,424,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 110,744,000
Current Assets 397,414,000
Current Cash 253,459,000
Current Liabilities 90,244,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 53,711,000
Change in NCWC 5,461,000
EBIT 56,298,000
Tax Provision 3,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 37,290,000
Capital Expenditure -16,141,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 80,449,878
Current Assets 243,674,000
Current Cash 119,629,000
Current Liabilities 75,795,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 48,250,000
Change in NCWC 41,518,000
EBIT 50,413,000
Tax Provision 5,566,000
Depreciation and Amortization 22,834,000
Capital Expenditure -19,324,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 90,676,690
Current Assets 228,063,000
Current Cash 146,061,000
Current Liabilities 75,270,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 6,732,000
Change in NCWC -16,372,000
EBIT 12,202,000
Tax Provision -9,825,000
Depreciation and Amortization 22,621,000
Capital Expenditure -11,015,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,436,000
Current Assets 163,936,000
Current Cash 96,329,000
Current Liabilities 44,503,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 23,104,000
Change in NCWC 13,253,000
EBIT 33,374,000
Tax Provision 2,990,000
Depreciation and Amortization 18,699,000
Capital Expenditure -10,464,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 51,766,926
Current Assets 190,184,000
Current Cash 140,634,000
Current Liabilities 39,699,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 9,851,000
Change in NCWC 6,238,000
EBIT 14,058,000
Tax Provision 4,227,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,276,000
Capital Expenditure -9,055,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 14,384,939

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.