ALSN
Analysis Results
| Intrinsic Value | $178.89 |
|---|---|
| Latest Price | $59.43 |
| Relative Value | 67% undervalued |
Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
New TickerAnalysis Details
Growth Rate Projection
An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 4.5%.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
The calculated WACC is 6.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.
Value of Future Flows
Assuming a growth rate of 4.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.
The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.
| Year | Future flow (million) | Present value (million) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 685 | 643 |
| 2024 | 716 | 632 |
| 2025 | 748 | 620 |
| 2026 | 782 | 609 |
| 2027 | 817 | 598 |
Terminal Value
Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 18800 million. This corresponds to a present value of 12900 million.
Intrinsic Value Per Share
The total present value of the projected cash flows is 3100 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 16000 million.
There are presently 89.5 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 178.89.
Financial Statements
The following data was to determine the past cash flows.
| Current Assets | 866,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 232,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 480,000,000 |
| Current Debt | 6,000,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 160,000,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 69,000,000 |
| EBIT | 784,000,000 |
| Tax Provision | 114,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 155,000,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -167,000,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 702,432,558 |
| Current Assets | 671,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 127,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 459,000,000 |
| Current Debt | 6,000,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 91,000,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 12,000,000 |
| EBIT | 669,000,000 |
| Tax Provision | 130,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 150,000,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -175,000,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 503,954,545 |
| Current Assets | 756,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 310,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 373,000,000 |
| Current Debt | 6,000,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 79,000,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -4,000,000 |
| EBIT | 534,000,000 |
| Tax Provision | 94,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 148,000,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -115,000,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 435,274,809 |
| Current Assets | 686,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 192,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 417,000,000 |
| Current Debt | 6,000,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 83,000,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 15,000,000 |
| EBIT | 886,000,000 |
| Tax Provision | 164,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 167,000,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -173,000,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 705,802,083 |
| Current Assets | 725,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 231,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 426,000,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 68,000,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 40,000,000 |
| EBIT | 927,000,000 |
| Tax Provision | 166,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 164,000,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -103,000,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 836,842,236 |
| Current Assets | 632,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 199,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 417,000,000 |
| Current Debt | 12,000,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 28,000,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 15,400,000 |
| EBIT | 684,000,000 |
| Tax Provision | 23,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 170,000,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -94,000,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 745,548,007 |
| Current Assets | 547,600,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 204,700,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 342,200,000 |
| Current Debt | 11,900,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 12,600,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -72,500,000 |
| EBIT | 451,500,000 |
| Tax Provision | 126,400,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 175,900,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -71,600,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 316,087,576 |
| Current Assets | 616,800,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 251,600,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 304,600,000 |
| Current Debt | 24,500,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 85,100,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -81,900,000 |
| EBIT | 524,200,000 |
| Tax Provision | 106,500,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 185,400,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -60,000,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 374,392,174 |
| Current Assets | 758,000,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 263,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 345,900,000 |
| Current Debt | 17,900,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 167,000,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 114,100,000 |
| EBIT | 527,500,000 |
| Tax Provision | 139,500,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 192,600,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -69,900,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 564,391,687 |
| Current Assets | 606,900,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 184,700,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 387,200,000 |
| Current Debt | 17,900,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 52,900,000 |
| Change in NCWC | 1,100,000 |
| EBIT | 409,900,000 |
| Tax Provision | 100,700,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 204,000,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -83,200,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 376,681,886 |
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