DCF Tool

AMGN

AMGEN Inc. – Biological Product (except Diagnostic) Manufacturing
Amgen is committed to unlocking the potential of biology for patients suffering from serious illnesses by discovering, developing, manufacturing and delivering innovative human therapeutics. This approach begins by using tools like advanced human genetics to unravel the complexities of disease and understand the fundamentals of human biology. Amgen focuses on areas of high unmet medical need and leverages its expertise to strive for solutions that improve health outcomes and dramatically improve people's lives. A biotechnology pioneer since 1980, Amgen has grown to be one of the world's leading independent biotechnology companies, has reached millions of patients around the world and is developing a pipeline of medicines with breakaway potential.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $768.26
Latest Price $247.50
Relative Value 68% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 6.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 6.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 11.9 11.4
2023 12.7 11.6
2024 13.6 11.8
2025 14.4 12.0
2026 15.4 12.3
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 462 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 351 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 59.1 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 410 billion.

There are presently 534.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 768.26.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 19,385,000,000
Current Cash 8,037,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,184,000,000
Current Debt 87,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -749,000,000
Change in NCWC 316,000,000
EBIT 9,144,000,000
Tax Provision 808,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,398,000,000
Capital Expenditure -880,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 10,875,425,458
Current Assets 21,144,000,000
Current Cash 10,647,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,653,000,000
Current Debt 91,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,065,000,000
Change in NCWC -712,000,000
EBIT 9,139,000,000
Tax Provision 869,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,601,000,000
Capital Expenditure -608,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 10,443,510,266
Current Assets 18,440,000,000
Current Cash 8,911,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,835,000,000
Current Debt 2,953,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -353,000,000
Change in NCWC 402,000,000
EBIT 9,674,000,000
Tax Provision 1,296,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,206,000,000
Capital Expenditure -618,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 10,291,981,615
Current Assets 37,618,000,000
Current Cash 29,304,000,000
Current Liabilities 13,488,000,000
Current Debt 4,419,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -755,000,000
Change in NCWC -685,000,000
EBIT 10,263,000,000
Tax Provision 1,151,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,946,000,000
Capital Expenditure -738,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 9,548,418,753
Current Assets 49,476,000,000
Current Cash 41,678,000,000
Current Liabilities 9,020,000,000
Current Debt 1,152,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -70,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,194,000,000
EBIT 9,973,000,000
Tax Provision 7,618,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,955,000,000
Capital Expenditure -664,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,153,535,063
Current Assets 46,010,000,000
Current Cash 38,085,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,204,000,000
Current Debt 4,403,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,124,000,000
Change in NCWC 405,000,000
EBIT 9,794,000,000
Tax Provision 1,441,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,105,000,000
Capital Expenditure -837,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 9,926,767,106
Current Assets 38,518,000,000
Current Cash 31,382,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,667,000,000
Current Debt 2,250,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 719,000,000
Change in NCWC -460,000,000
EBIT 8,470,000,000
Tax Provision 1,039,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,108,000,000
Capital Expenditure -649,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,365,925,294
Current Assets 34,713,000,000
Current Cash 27,026,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,008,000,000
Current Debt 500,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,179,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,345,000,000
EBIT 6,191,000,000
Tax Provision 427,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,092,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,003,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,461,668,397
Current Assets 27,367,000,000
Current Cash 19,401,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,947,000,000
Current Debt 2,505,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,524,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,072,000,000
EBIT 5,867,000,000
Tax Provision 184,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,286,000,000
Capital Expenditure -693,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,326,961,443
Current Assets 31,209,000,000
Current Cash 24,061,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,191,000,000
Current Debt 2,495,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,452,000,000
Change in NCWC 170,000,000
EBIT 5,577,000,000
Tax Provision 664,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,088,000,000
Capital Expenditure -689,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,406,705,130

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