DCF Tool

AVAV

AeroVironment Inc. – Small Arms Ammunition Manufacturing
AeroVironmentprovides technology solutions at the intersection of robotics, sensors, software analytics and connectivity that deliver more actionable intelligence so you can Proceed with Certainty. Celebrating 50 years of innovation, AeroVironment is a global leader in unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems, and serves defense, government and commercial customers.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $75.32
Latest Price $83.36
Relative Value 11% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 14.1%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 14.1%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2023 82.0 75.9
2024 93.6 80.1
2025 107 84.6
2026 122 89.3
2027 139 94.3
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 2330 million. This corresponds to a present value of 1460 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 424 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1880 million.

There are presently 25.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 75.32.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 368,909,000
Current Cash 101,947,000
Current Liabilities 101,391,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 175,571,000
Change in NCWC 40,830,000
EBIT -5,298,000
Tax Provision -10,369,000
Depreciation and Amortization 60,825,000
Capital Expenditure -22,289,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 74,068,000
Current Assets 401,638,000
Current Cash 180,712,000
Current Liabilities 96,185,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 134,741,000
Change in NCWC 416,000
EBIT 32,832,000
Tax Provision 539,000
Depreciation and Amortization 19,262,000
Capital Expenditure -11,263,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 40,506,066
Current Assets 503,927,000
Current Cash 302,649,000
Current Liabilities 66,953,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 134,325,000
Change in NCWC 32,798,000
EBIT 41,648,000
Tax Provision 5,848,000
Depreciation and Amortization 9,888,000
Capital Expenditure -11,220,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 67,952,024
Current Assets 469,588,000
Current Cash 323,195,000
Current Liabilities 44,866,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 101,527,000
Change in NCWC 20,043,000
EBIT 29,882,000
Tax Provision 4,641,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,669,000
Capital Expenditure -8,896,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 46,177,602
Current Assets 399,147,000
Current Cash 257,166,000
Current Liabilities 60,497,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 81,484,000
Change in NCWC -24,663,000
EBIT 30,346,000
Tax Provision 10,177,000
Depreciation and Amortization 5,982,000
Capital Expenditure -9,563,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -7,389,693
Current Assets 354,085,000
Current Cash 199,875,000
Current Liabilities 48,063,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 106,147,000
Change in NCWC 30,480,000
EBIT 12,531,000
Tax Provision 1,752,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,054,000
Capital Expenditure -9,862,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 38,657,900
Current Assets 349,703,000
Current Cash 227,691,000
Current Liabilities 46,345,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 75,667,000
Change in NCWC 22,161,000
EBIT 9,735,000
Tax Provision -898,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,074,000
Capital Expenditure -6,829,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 31,141,000
Current Assets 329,032,000
Current Cash 228,791,000
Current Liabilities 46,735,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 53,506,000
Change in NCWC -18,008,000
EBIT 1,774,000
Tax Provision -1,002,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,366,000
Capital Expenditure -5,429,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -13,297,000
Current Assets 306,857,000
Current Cash 197,608,000
Current Liabilities 37,735,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 71,514,000
Change in NCWC -1,180,000
EBIT 12,389,000
Tax Provision 1,178,000
Depreciation and Amortization 9,155,000
Capital Expenditure -7,893,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,491,257
Current Assets 263,454,000
Current Cash 148,573,000
Current Liabilities 42,187,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 72,694,000
Change in NCWC -3,998,000
EBIT 3,802,000
Tax Provision 347,000
Depreciation and Amortization 10,937,000
Capital Expenditure -12,684,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -2,065,463
Current Assets 281,769,000
Current Cash 141,372,000
Current Liabilities 63,705,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 76,692,000
Change in NCWC 29,645,000
EBIT 43,076,000
Tax Provision 13,087,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,973,000
Capital Expenditure -14,992,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 53,753,871

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