DCF Tool

AVAV

AeroVironment Inc. – Small Arms Ammunition Manufacturing
since aerovironment's beginnings more than 45 years ago, our scientists and engineers have sought innovative solutions to many of our most difficult security, energy and infrastructure management challenges. but as remarkable as our products are, it's the actionable intelligence they provide our customers that most clearly defines our company. from the moment we developed our breakthrough unmanned aircraft systems, we understood their primary benefit—giving people the ability to see the situation ahead. with aerovironment's sophisticated eyes in the sky, we could provide life-saving intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance for our troops on the battlefield. today, aerovironment has become the acknowledged expert and largest supplier of small, unmanned aircraft systems (uas) to the pentagon and to dozens of allied nations. as effective as our small uas have become on the battlefront, they promise to be equally life-saving on the home front. aerovironment's family of integrated and
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $260.45
Latest Price $139.71
Relative Value 46% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 20.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 20.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2024 124 118
2025 149 137
2026 179 158
2027 216 182
2028 260 210
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 7810 million. This corresponds to a present value of 6040 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 805 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 6850 million.

There are presently 26.3 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 260.45.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 477,002,000
Current Cash 132,859,000
Current Liabilities 121,334,000
Current Debt 7,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 230,309,000
Change in NCWC 54,738,000
EBIT -25,099,000
Tax Provision -14,663,000
Depreciation and Amortization 99,999,000
Capital Expenditure -14,868,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 114,770,000
Current Assets 368,909,000
Current Cash 101,947,000
Current Liabilities 101,391,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 175,571,000
Change in NCWC 40,830,000
EBIT -5,298,000
Tax Provision -10,369,000
Depreciation and Amortization 60,825,000
Capital Expenditure -22,289,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 74,068,000
Current Assets 401,638,000
Current Cash 180,712,000
Current Liabilities 96,185,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 134,741,000
Change in NCWC 416,000
EBIT 32,832,000
Tax Provision 539,000
Depreciation and Amortization 19,262,000
Capital Expenditure -11,263,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 40,506,066
Current Assets 503,927,000
Current Cash 302,649,000
Current Liabilities 66,953,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 134,325,000
Change in NCWC 32,798,000
EBIT 41,648,000
Tax Provision 5,848,000
Depreciation and Amortization 9,888,000
Capital Expenditure -11,220,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 67,952,024
Current Assets 469,588,000
Current Cash 323,195,000
Current Liabilities 44,866,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 101,527,000
Change in NCWC 20,043,000
EBIT 29,882,000
Tax Provision 4,641,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,669,000
Capital Expenditure -8,896,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 46,177,602
Current Assets 399,147,000
Current Cash 257,166,000
Current Liabilities 60,497,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 81,484,000
Change in NCWC -24,663,000
EBIT 30,346,000
Tax Provision 10,177,000
Depreciation and Amortization 5,982,000
Capital Expenditure -9,563,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -7,389,693
Current Assets 354,085,000
Current Cash 199,875,000
Current Liabilities 48,063,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 106,147,000
Change in NCWC 30,480,000
EBIT 12,531,000
Tax Provision 1,752,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,054,000
Capital Expenditure -9,862,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 38,657,900
Current Assets 349,703,000
Current Cash 227,691,000
Current Liabilities 46,345,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 75,667,000
Change in NCWC 22,161,000
EBIT 9,735,000
Tax Provision -898,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,074,000
Capital Expenditure -6,829,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 31,141,000
Current Assets 329,032,000
Current Cash 228,791,000
Current Liabilities 46,735,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 53,506,000
Change in NCWC -18,008,000
EBIT 1,774,000
Tax Provision -1,002,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,366,000
Capital Expenditure -5,429,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -13,297,000
Current Assets 306,857,000
Current Cash 197,608,000
Current Liabilities 37,735,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 71,514,000
Change in NCWC -1,180,000
EBIT 12,389,000
Tax Provision 1,178,000
Depreciation and Amortization 9,155,000
Capital Expenditure -7,893,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,491,257
Current Assets 263,454,000
Current Cash 148,573,000
Current Liabilities 42,187,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 72,694,000
Change in NCWC -3,998,000
EBIT 3,802,000
Tax Provision 347,000
Depreciation and Amortization 10,937,000
Capital Expenditure -12,684,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -2,065,463
Current Assets 281,769,000
Current Cash 141,372,000
Current Liabilities 63,705,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 76,692,000
Change in NCWC 29,645,000
EBIT 43,076,000
Tax Provision 13,087,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,973,000
Capital Expenditure -14,992,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 53,753,871

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