DCF Tool

BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, or Alibaba, is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, Internet, and technology.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $229.49
Latest Price $71.29
Relative Value 69% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 38.1%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 38.1%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 13.3 12.3
2025 18.3 15.6
2026 25.3 19.9
2027 35.0 25.4
2028 48.3 32.4
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 780 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 483 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 106 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 589 billion.

There are presently 2.57 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 229.49.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 101,729,485,497
Current Cash 76,442,209,590
Current Liabilities 56,165,427,780
Current Debt 1,787,786,037
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -29,090,365,835
Change in NCWC 1,068,861,808
EBIT 13,846,669,581
Tax Provision 2,266,287,713
Depreciation and Amortization 2,789,535,053
Capital Expenditure -5,006,850,313
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 10,044,165,867
Current Assets 100,566,195,233
Current Cash 71,673,701,453
Current Liabilities 60,444,136,455
Current Debt 1,392,415,031
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -30,159,227,644
Change in NCWC 923,138,205
EBIT 17,186,348,316
Tax Provision 4,223,233,691
Depreciation and Amortization 3,190,380,193
Capital Expenditure -8,398,273,852
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,664,930,479
Current Assets 98,022,366,464
Current Cash 73,657,707,901
Current Liabilities 57,494,286,502
Current Debt 2,047,262,089
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -31,082,365,849
Change in NCWC -11,753,057,991
EBIT 14,727,427,858
Tax Provision 4,460,797,757
Depreciation and Amortization 7,299,417,985
Capital Expenditure -6,579,669,074
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,195,366,835
Current Assets 65,308,964,173
Current Cash 51,242,205,339
Current Liabilities 34,123,190,644
Current Debt 727,123,952
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -19,329,307,857
Change in NCWC -1,734,701,177
EBIT 12,171,355,206
Tax Provision 2,900,877,513
Depreciation and Amortization 5,985,581,669
Capital Expenditure -6,403,036,029
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,463,893,627
Current Assets 40,267,133,504
Current Cash 30,268,921,344
Current Liabilities 30,939,958,293
Current Debt 3,347,139,452
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -17,594,606,680
Change in NCWC -4,370,129,219
EBIT 8,589,094,162
Tax Provision 2,466,179,976
Depreciation and Amortization 5,524,433,851
Capital Expenditure -7,396,156,140
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 878,292,530
Current Assets 40,857,538,257
Current Cash 33,437,788,312
Current Liabilities 21,603,092,292
Current Debt 958,864,887
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -13,224,477,460
Change in NCWC -6,373,058,958
EBIT 7,796,901,346
Tax Provision 2,894,887,538
Depreciation and Amortization 3,502,688,257
Capital Expenditure -4,745,967,613
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,601,801,309
Current Assets 26,516,539,777
Current Cash 21,908,877,660
Current Liabilities 13,623,367,000
Current Debt 2,164,286,380
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -6,851,418,502
Change in NCWC -2,299,325,496
EBIT 6,251,252,895
Tax Provision 2,001,423,721
Depreciation and Amortization 2,076,389,941
Capital Expenditure -2,549,142,031
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,913,463,882
Current Assets 20,786,046,432
Current Cash 17,937,364,272
Current Liabilities 8,068,061,984
Current Debt 667,286,819
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -4,552,093,005
Change in NCWC -1,028,004,797
EBIT 4,314,263,549
Tax Provision 1,309,922,475
Depreciation and Amortization 1,038,914,724
Capital Expenditure -843,100,771
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,024,935,421
Current Assets 23,215,494,676
Current Cash 20,583,700,636
Current Liabilities 6,480,976,608
Current Debt 325,094,360
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -3,524,088,208
Change in NCWC -2,832,063,459
EBIT 3,548,266,080
Tax Provision 1,048,143,424
Depreciation and Amortization 721,252,060
Capital Expenditure -1,258,719,620
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -561,949,321
Current Assets 11,016,689,697
Current Cash 7,320,423,266
Current Liabilities 6,071,498,056
Current Debt 1,683,206,876
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -692,024,749
Change in NCWC 694,224,551
EBIT 4,021,409,249
Tax Provision 519,059,164
Depreciation and Amortization 268,624,486
Capital Expenditure -775,665,384
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,725,400,903

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