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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill – Food Service Contractors
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is cultivating a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. Chipotle had over 2,700 restaurants as of September 30, 2020, in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany and is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants. With more than 94,000 employees passionate about providing a great guest experience, Chipotle is a longtime leader and innovator in the food industry. Chipotle is committed to making its food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose as it leads the way in digital, technology and sustainable business practices. Steve Ells, founder and former executive chairman, first opened Chipotle with a single restaurant in Denver, Coloradoin 1993.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $380.21
Latest Price $1,627.96
Relative Value 328% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 4.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 4.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2023 308 298
2024 322 301
2025 336 304
2026 350 307
2027 366 310
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 11000 million. This corresponds to a present value of 8980 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1520 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 10500 million.

There are presently 27.6 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 380.21.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 1,175,837,000
Current Cash 899,136,000
Current Liabilities 921,880,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -645,179,000
Change in NCWC -76,742,000
EBIT 1,181,542,000
Tax Provision 282,430,000
Depreciation and Amortization 286,826,000
Capital Expenditure -479,164,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 630,029,370
Current Assets 1,381,564,000
Current Cash 1,076,319,000
Current Liabilities 873,682,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -568,437,000
Change in NCWC -214,872,000
EBIT 824,234,000
Tax Provision 159,779,000
Depreciation and Amortization 254,657,000
Capital Expenditure -442,475,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 259,509,945
Current Assets 1,420,237,000
Current Cash 951,603,000
Current Liabilities 822,199,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -353,565,000
Change in NCWC 121,606,000
EBIT 320,741,000
Tax Provision -61,985,000
Depreciation and Amortization 423,072,000
Capital Expenditure -373,352,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 492,067,000
Current Assets 1,072,204,000
Current Cash 880,782,000
Current Liabilities 666,593,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -475,171,000
Change in NCWC -163,177,000
EBIT 467,052,000
Tax Provision 108,127,000
Depreciation and Amortization 212,778,000
Capital Expenditure -333,912,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 72,545,528
Current Assets 814,794,000
Current Cash 676,798,000
Current Liabilities 449,990,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -311,994,000
Change in NCWC -108,685,000
EBIT 325,007,000
Tax Provision 91,883,000
Depreciation and Amortization 201,979,000
Capital Expenditure -287,390,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 19,664,303
Current Assets 629,535,000
Current Cash 508,951,000
Current Liabilities 323,893,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -203,309,000
Change in NCWC -26,174,000
EBIT 284,139,000
Tax Provision 99,490,000
Depreciation and Amortization 163,348,000
Capital Expenditure -216,777,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 102,016,664
Current Assets 522,374,000
Current Cash 417,716,000
Current Liabilities 281,793,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -177,135,000
Change in NCWC -48,636,000
EBIT 58,444,000
Tax Provision 15,801,000
Depreciation and Amortization 146,368,000
Capital Expenditure -258,842,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -126,504,344
Current Assets 814,647,000
Current Cash 663,204,000
Current Liabilities 279,942,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -128,499,000
Change in NCWC -3,211,000
EBIT 776,783,000
Tax Provision 294,265,000
Depreciation and Amortization 130,368,000
Capital Expenditure -257,418,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 349,613,508
Current Assets 878,479,000
Current Cash 758,057,000
Current Liabilities 245,710,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -125,288,000
Change in NCWC -14,193,000
EBIT 717,776,000
Tax Provision 268,929,000
Depreciation and Amortization 110,474,000
Capital Expenditure -252,590,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 291,230,445
Current Assets 666,307,000
Current Cash 578,174,000
Current Liabilities 199,228,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -111,095,000
Change in NCWC 1,866,000
EBIT 539,471,000
Tax Provision 207,033,000
Depreciation and Amortization 96,054,000
Capital Expenditure -199,926,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 228,495,197
Current Assets 546,607,000
Current Cash 472,859,000
Current Liabilities 186,852,000
Current Debt 143,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -112,961,000
Change in NCWC -585,000
EBIT 460,892,000
Tax Provision 179,685,000
Depreciation and Amortization 84,130,000
Capital Expenditure -197,037,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 166,455,946

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