DCF Tool

CNQ

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. – Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
Canadian Natural is a senior oil and natural gas production company, with continuing operations in its core areas located in Western Canada, the U.K. portion of the North Sea and Offshore Africa.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $366.76
Latest Price $53.86
Relative Value 85% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 33.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 33.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 7.0 6.59
2023 9.32 8.25
2024 12.4 10.3
2025 16.5 12.9
2026 21.9 16.2
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 523 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 363 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 54.3 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 417 billion.

There are presently 1.14 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 366.76.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 4,667,307,092
Current Cash 827,107,769
Current Liabilities 5,829,813,740
Current Debt 785,477,464
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,204,136,952
Change in NCWC -1,311,650,079
EBIT 7,471,461,640
Tax Provision 1,764,967,862
Depreciation and Amortization 4,496,073,005
Capital Expenditure -3,529,150,247
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,432,821,060
Current Assets 3,422,370,421
Current Cash 383,751,235
Current Liabilities 3,985,048,612
Current Debt 1,053,942,553
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 107,513,127
Change in NCWC 404,895,624
EBIT -349,221,471
Tax Provision -343,728,100
Depreciation and Amortization 4,744,703,408
Capital Expenditure -2,009,004,420
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,791,373,141
Current Assets 3,439,059,964
Current Cash 482,096,883
Current Liabilities 5,086,926,896
Current Debt 1,832,581,318
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -297,382,497
Change in NCWC 602,021,445
EBIT 4,285,986,922
Tax Provision -352,566,878
Depreciation and Amortization 4,250,730,234
Capital Expenditure -2,765,350,646
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,373,387,955
Current Assets 2,215,497,478
Current Cash 458,505,272
Current Liabilities 3,493,443,374
Current Debt 837,047,226
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -899,403,943
Change in NCWC -487,959,888
EBIT 3,556,533,700
Tax Provision 682,989,454
Depreciation and Amortization 3,786,153,140
Capital Expenditure -3,257,955,066
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,656,643,301
Current Assets 3,897,178,982
Current Cash 819,704,788
Current Liabilities 4,982,690,955
Current Debt 1,493,772,707
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -411,444,054
Change in NCWC -504,917,246
EBIT 1,858,262,798
Tax Provision 378,815,028
Depreciation and Amortization 4,127,173,820
Capital Expenditure -3,640,125,926
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,532,515,586
Current Assets 3,216,664,781
Current Cash 689,921,182
Current Liabilities 3,777,503,936
Current Debt 1,344,233,529
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 93,473,192
Change in NCWC -14,688,057
EBIT -948,827,088
Tax Provision -637,249,780
Depreciation and Amortization 3,603,910,864
Capital Expenditure -2,821,258,340
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -180,862,621
Current Assets 2,926,843,425
Current Cash 752,081,225
Current Liabilities 3,313,339,625
Current Debt 1,246,738,675
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 108,161,250
Change in NCWC 708,386,806
EBIT -535,037,650
Tax Provision -21,632,250
Depreciation and Amortization 3,953,654,225
Capital Expenditure -3,391,936,800
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 735,066,581
Current Assets 3,000,267,858
Current Cash 21,498,050
Current Liabilities 4,421,718,924
Current Debt 842,723,560
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -600,225,556
Change in NCWC 885,807,524
EBIT 4,172,341,544
Tax Provision 1,061,143,748
Depreciation and Amortization 4,196,419,360
Capital Expenditure -8,778,083,776
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -520,739,726
Current Assets 2,071,100,192
Current Cash 14,953,792
Current Liabilities 4,891,759,208
Current Debt 1,349,579,728
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,486,033,080
Change in NCWC -179,048,480
EBIT 2,943,611,928
Tax Provision 715,912,792
Depreciation and Amortization 4,527,260,528
Capital Expenditure -6,739,487,132
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -192,670,833
Current Assets 1,922,804,400
Current Cash 37,170,200
Current Liabilities 3,994,289,600
Current Debt 801,670,800
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,306,984,600
Change in NCWC -398,827,096
EBIT 3,058,002,400
Tax Provision 720,298,200
Depreciation and Amortization 4,347,908,800
Capital Expenditure -6,132,078,400
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 34,611,790

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