CNQ Intrinsic Value

CNQ

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. – Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction

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Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$1,484.58
Latest Price	$67.89
Relative Value	95% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 46.3%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 46.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	13.3	12.9
2024	19.5	18.1
2025	28.6	25.5
2026	41.8	36.0
2027	61.2	50.7

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 1840 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 1470 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 143 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1610 billion.

There are presently 1.08 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1484.58.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	5,200,633,774
Current Cash	1,039,831,976
Current Liabilities	6,375,327,020
Current Debt	297,726,519
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-1,916,798,703
Change in NCWC	-712,661,750
EBIT	10,877,335,200
Tax Provision	2,039,131,876
Depreciation and Amortization	5,418,770,035
Capital Expenditure	-3,784,958,915
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	9,602,221,691

Current Assets	4,667,307,092
Current Cash	827,107,769
Current Liabilities	5,829,813,740
Current Debt	785,477,464
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-1,204,136,952
Change in NCWC	-1,311,650,079
EBIT	7,471,461,640
Tax Provision	1,764,967,862
Depreciation and Amortization	4,496,073,005
Capital Expenditure	-3,529,150,247
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	5,432,821,060

Current Assets	3,422,370,421
Current Cash	383,751,235
Current Liabilities	3,985,048,612
Current Debt	1,053,942,553
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	107,513,127
Change in NCWC	404,895,624
EBIT	-349,221,471
Tax Provision	-343,728,100
Depreciation and Amortization	4,744,703,408
Capital Expenditure	-2,009,004,420
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	2,791,373,141

Current Assets	3,439,059,964
Current Cash	482,096,883
Current Liabilities	5,086,926,896
Current Debt	1,832,581,318
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-297,382,497
Change in NCWC	602,021,445
EBIT	4,285,986,922
Tax Provision	-352,566,878
Depreciation and Amortization	4,250,730,234
Capital Expenditure	-2,765,350,646
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	6,373,387,955

Current Assets	2,215,497,478
Current Cash	458,505,272
Current Liabilities	3,493,443,374
Current Debt	837,047,226
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-899,403,943
Change in NCWC	-487,959,888
EBIT	3,556,533,700
Tax Provision	682,989,454
Depreciation and Amortization	3,786,153,140
Capital Expenditure	-3,257,955,066
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	2,656,643,301

Current Assets	3,897,178,982
Current Cash	819,704,788
Current Liabilities	4,982,690,955
Current Debt	1,493,772,707
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-411,444,054
Change in NCWC	-504,917,246
EBIT	1,858,262,798
Tax Provision	378,815,028
Depreciation and Amortization	4,127,173,820
Capital Expenditure	-3,640,125,926
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,532,515,586

Current Assets	3,216,664,781
Current Cash	689,921,182
Current Liabilities	3,777,503,936
Current Debt	1,344,233,529
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	93,473,192
Change in NCWC	-14,688,057
EBIT	-948,827,088
Tax Provision	-637,249,780
Depreciation and Amortization	3,603,910,864
Capital Expenditure	-2,821,258,340
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-180,862,621

Current Assets	2,926,843,425
Current Cash	752,081,225
Current Liabilities	3,313,339,625
Current Debt	1,246,738,675
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	108,161,250
Change in NCWC	708,386,806
EBIT	-535,037,650
Tax Provision	-21,632,250
Depreciation and Amortization	3,953,654,225
Capital Expenditure	-3,391,936,800
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	735,066,581

Current Assets	3,000,267,858
Current Cash	21,498,050
Current Liabilities	4,421,718,924
Current Debt	842,723,560
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-600,225,556
Change in NCWC	885,807,524
EBIT	4,172,341,544
Tax Provision	1,061,143,748
Depreciation and Amortization	4,196,419,360
Capital Expenditure	-8,778,083,776
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-520,739,726

Current Assets	2,071,100,192
Current Cash	14,953,792
Current Liabilities	4,891,759,208
Current Debt	1,349,579,728
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-1,486,033,080
Change in NCWC	-179,048,480
EBIT	2,943,611,928
Tax Provision	715,912,792
Depreciation and Amortization	4,527,260,528
Capital Expenditure	-6,739,487,132
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-192,670,833

Current Assets	1,922,804,400
Current Cash	37,170,200
Current Liabilities	3,994,289,600
Current Debt	801,670,800
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-1,306,984,600
Change in NCWC	-398,827,096
EBIT	3,058,002,400
Tax Provision	720,298,200
Depreciation and Amortization	4,347,908,800
Capital Expenditure	-6,132,078,400
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	34,611,790

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