DCF Tool

CSX

CSX Corp. – Line-Haul Railroads
csx corporation, together with its subsidiaries based in jacksonville, fla., is one of the nation's leading transportation suppliers. the company’s rail and intermodal businesses provide rail-based transportation services including traditional rail service and the transport of intermodal containers and trailers. overall, the csx transportation network encompasses about 21,000 route miles of track in 23 states, the district of columbia and the canadian provinces of ontario and quebec. our transportation network serves some of the largest population centers in the nation. nearly two-thirds of americans live within csx’s service territory. csx serves major markets in the eastern united states and has access to over 70 ocean, river and lake port terminals along the atlantic and gulf coasts, the mississippi river, the great lakes and the st. lawrence seaway. the company also has access to pacific ports through alliances with western railroads. csx moves a broad portfolio of products across
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $65.11
Latest Price $34.16
Relative Value 48% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 11.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 11.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 4.61 4.32
2025 5.14 4.51
2026 5.73 4.72
2027 6.39 4.93
2028 7.13 5.15
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 154 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 104 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 23.6 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 127 billion.

There are presently 1.96 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 65.11.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 3,384,000,000
Current Cash 1,436,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,224,000,000
Current Debt 558,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -718,000,000
Change in NCWC -160,000,000
EBIT 5,527,000,000
Tax Provision 1,176,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,611,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,281,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,368,079,124
Current Assets 3,849,000,000
Current Cash 2,087,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,471,000,000
Current Debt 151,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -558,000,000
Change in NCWC -63,000,000
EBIT 5,785,000,000
Tax Provision 1,248,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,500,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,133,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,755,479,497
Current Assets 3,873,000,000
Current Cash 2,316,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,233,000,000
Current Debt 181,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -495,000,000
Change in NCWC -187,000,000
EBIT 5,140,000,000
Tax Provision 1,170,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,420,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,791,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,367,336,295
Current Assets 4,441,000,000
Current Cash 3,131,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,019,000,000
Current Debt 401,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -308,000,000
Change in NCWC 274,000,000
EBIT 4,362,000,000
Tax Provision 862,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,383,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,626,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,356,318,444
Current Assets 3,278,000,000
Current Cash 1,954,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,151,000,000
Current Debt 245,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -582,000,000
Change in NCWC -139,000,000
EBIT 4,965,000,000
Tax Provision 985,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,349,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,657,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,384,884,847
Current Assets 2,565,000,000
Current Cash 1,111,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,915,000,000
Current Debt 18,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -443,000,000
Change in NCWC -64,000,000
EBIT 4,869,000,000
Tax Provision 995,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,331,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,745,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,265,383,131
Current Assets 1,915,000,000
Current Cash 419,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,894,000,000
Current Debt 19,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -379,000,000
Change in NCWC -137,000,000
EBIT 3,992,000,000
Tax Provision -2,329,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,315,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,040,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,130,000,000
Current Assets 2,487,000,000
Current Cash 1,020,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,040,000,000
Current Debt 331,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -242,000,000
Change in NCWC 162,000,000
EBIT 3,389,000,000
Tax Provision 1,027,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,301,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,398,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,184,206,858
Current Assets 2,966,000,000
Current Cash 1,438,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,952,000,000
Current Debt 20,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -404,000,000
Change in NCWC -136,000,000
EBIT 3,584,000,000
Tax Provision 1,170,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,208,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,562,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 757,709,369
Current Assets 2,572,000,000
Current Cash 961,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,107,000,000
Current Debt 228,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -268,000,000
Change in NCWC 100,000,000
EBIT 3,613,000,000
Tax Provision 1,117,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,151,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,449,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,089,204,664
Current Assets 2,602,000,000
Current Cash 1,079,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,424,000,000
Current Debt 533,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -368,000,000
Change in NCWC 49,000,000
EBIT 3,473,000,000
Tax Provision 1,058,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,104,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,313,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,055,493,497
Current Assets 2,801,000,000
Current Cash 1,371,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,627,000,000
Current Debt 780,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -417,000,000
Change in NCWC 134,000,000
EBIT 3,457,000,000
Tax Provision 1,105,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,059,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,341,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,020,206,140

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