CSX Intrinsic Value

CSX

CSX Corp. – Line-Haul Railroads

csx corporation, together with its subsidiaries based in jacksonville, fla., is one of the nation's leading transportation suppliers. the company’s rail and intermodal businesses provide rail-based transportation services including traditional rail service and the transport of intermodal containers and trailers. overall, the csx transportation network encompasses about 21,000 route miles of track in 23 states, the district of columbia and the canadian provinces of ontario and quebec. our transportation network serves some of the largest population centers in the nation. nearly two-thirds of americans live within csx’s service territory. csx serves major markets in the eastern united states and has access to over 70 ocean, river and lake port terminals along the atlantic and gulf coasts, the mississippi river, the great lakes and the st. lawrence seaway. the company also has access to pacific ports through alliances with western railroads. csx moves a broad portfolio of products across

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$105.83
Latest Price	$33.40
Relative Value	68% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 13.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 13.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	4.58	4.41
2024	5.22	4.83
2025	5.94	5.28
2026	6.76	5.78
2027	7.7	6.33

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 231 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 183 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 26.6 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 209 billion.

There are presently 1.98 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 105.83.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	3,849,000,000
Current Cash	2,087,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,471,000,000
Current Debt	151,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-558,000,000
Change in NCWC	-63,000,000
EBIT	5,785,000,000
Tax Provision	1,248,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,500,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,133,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,755,479,497

Current Assets	3,873,000,000
Current Cash	2,316,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,233,000,000
Current Debt	181,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-495,000,000
Change in NCWC	-187,000,000
EBIT	5,140,000,000
Tax Provision	1,170,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,420,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,791,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,367,336,295

Current Assets	4,441,000,000
Current Cash	3,131,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,019,000,000
Current Debt	401,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-308,000,000
Change in NCWC	274,000,000
EBIT	4,362,000,000
Tax Provision	862,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,383,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,626,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,356,318,444

Current Assets	3,278,000,000
Current Cash	1,954,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,151,000,000
Current Debt	245,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-582,000,000
Change in NCWC	-139,000,000
EBIT	4,965,000,000
Tax Provision	985,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,349,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,657,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,384,884,847

Current Assets	2,565,000,000
Current Cash	1,111,000,000
Current Liabilities	1,915,000,000
Current Debt	18,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-443,000,000
Change in NCWC	-64,000,000
EBIT	4,869,000,000
Tax Provision	995,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,331,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,745,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,265,383,131

Current Assets	1,915,000,000
Current Cash	419,000,000
Current Liabilities	1,894,000,000
Current Debt	19,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-379,000,000
Change in NCWC	-137,000,000
EBIT	3,992,000,000
Tax Provision	-2,329,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,315,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,040,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,130,000,000

Current Assets	2,487,000,000
Current Cash	1,020,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,040,000,000
Current Debt	331,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-242,000,000
Change in NCWC	162,000,000
EBIT	3,389,000,000
Tax Provision	1,027,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,301,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,398,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,184,206,858

Current Assets	2,966,000,000
Current Cash	1,438,000,000
Current Liabilities	1,952,000,000
Current Debt	20,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-404,000,000
Change in NCWC	-136,000,000
EBIT	3,584,000,000
Tax Provision	1,170,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,208,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,562,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	757,709,369

Current Assets	2,572,000,000
Current Cash	961,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,107,000,000
Current Debt	228,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-268,000,000
Change in NCWC	100,000,000
EBIT	3,613,000,000
Tax Provision	1,117,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,151,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,449,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,089,204,664

Current Assets	2,602,000,000
Current Cash	1,079,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,424,000,000
Current Debt	533,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-368,000,000
Change in NCWC	49,000,000
EBIT	3,473,000,000
Tax Provision	1,058,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,104,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,313,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,055,493,497

Current Assets	2,801,000,000
Current Cash	1,371,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,627,000,000
Current Debt	780,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-417,000,000
Change in NCWC	134,000,000
EBIT	3,457,000,000
Tax Provision	1,105,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,059,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,341,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,020,206,140

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