DCF Tool

CSX

CSX Corp. – Line-Haul Railroads
CSX Corporation, based in Jacksonville, Florida, is a premier transportation company. It provides rail, intermodal and rail-to-truck transload services and solutions to customers across a broad array of markets, including energy, industrial, construction, agricultural and consumer products. For nearly 200 years, CSX has played a critical role in the nation's economic expansion and industrial development. Its network connects every major metropolitan area in the eastern United States, where nearly two-thirds of the nation's population resides. It also links more than 230 short-line railroads and more than 70 ocean, river and lake ports with major population centers and farming towns alike.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $62.50
Latest Price $31.58
Relative Value 49% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 16.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 16.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 4.45 4.16
2023 5.18 4.52
2024 6.01 4.91
2025 6.99 5.34
2026 8.12 5.8
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 167 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 111 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 24.7 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 136 billion.

There are presently 2.17 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 62.5.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 3,873,000,000
Current Cash 2,316,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,233,000,000
Current Debt 181,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -495,000,000
Change in NCWC -187,000,000
EBIT 5,140,000,000
Tax Provision 1,170,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,420,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,791,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,367,336,295
Current Assets 4,441,000,000
Current Cash 3,131,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,019,000,000
Current Debt 401,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -308,000,000
Change in NCWC 274,000,000
EBIT 4,362,000,000
Tax Provision 862,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,383,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,626,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,356,318,444
Current Assets 3,278,000,000
Current Cash 1,954,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,151,000,000
Current Debt 245,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -582,000,000
Change in NCWC -139,000,000
EBIT 4,965,000,000
Tax Provision 985,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,349,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,657,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,384,884,847
Current Assets 2,565,000,000
Current Cash 1,111,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,915,000,000
Current Debt 18,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -443,000,000
Change in NCWC -64,000,000
EBIT 4,869,000,000
Tax Provision 995,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,331,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,745,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,265,383,131
Current Assets 1,915,000,000
Current Cash 419,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,894,000,000
Current Debt 19,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -379,000,000
Change in NCWC -137,000,000
EBIT 3,992,000,000
Tax Provision -2,329,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,315,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,040,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,130,000,000
Current Assets 2,487,000,000
Current Cash 1,020,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,040,000,000
Current Debt 331,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -242,000,000
Change in NCWC 162,000,000
EBIT 3,389,000,000
Tax Provision 1,027,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,301,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,398,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,184,206,858
Current Assets 2,966,000,000
Current Cash 1,438,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,952,000,000
Current Debt 20,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -404,000,000
Change in NCWC -136,000,000
EBIT 3,584,000,000
Tax Provision 1,170,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,208,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,562,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 757,709,369
Current Assets 2,572,000,000
Current Cash 961,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,107,000,000
Current Debt 228,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -268,000,000
Change in NCWC 100,000,000
EBIT 3,613,000,000
Tax Provision 1,117,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,151,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,449,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,089,204,664
Current Assets 2,602,000,000
Current Cash 1,079,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,424,000,000
Current Debt 533,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -368,000,000
Change in NCWC 49,000,000
EBIT 3,473,000,000
Tax Provision 1,058,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,104,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,313,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,055,493,497
Current Assets 2,801,000,000
Current Cash 1,371,000,000
Current Liabilities 2,627,000,000
Current Debt 780,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -417,000,000
Change in NCWC 134,000,000
EBIT 3,457,000,000
Tax Provision 1,105,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,059,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,341,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,020,206,140

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