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Dollar Tree Inc – All Other General Merchandise Stores
Dollar Tree, a Fortune 200 Company, operated 15,606 stores across 48 states and five Canadian provinces as of October 31, 2020. Stores operate under the brands of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, and Dollar Tree Canada.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $312.77
Latest Price $142.45
Relative Value 54% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 12.1%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 12.1%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 2.42 2.27
2025 2.71 2.38
2026 3.04 2.51
2027 3.41 2.63
2028 3.83 2.77
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 83.2 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 56.4 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 12.6 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 68.9 billion.

There are presently 220.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 312.77.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 6,367,100,000
Current Cash 642,800,000
Current Liabilities 4,225,200,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,499,100,000
Change in NCWC 1,051,400,000
EBIT 2,236,300,000
Tax Provision 495,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 767,900,000
Capital Expenditure -1,248,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,282,107,609
Current Assets 5,609,200,000
Current Cash 984,900,000
Current Liabilities 4,176,600,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 447,700,000
Change in NCWC 543,900,000
EBIT 1,811,400,000
Tax Provision 304,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 716,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,021,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,712,390,760
Current Assets 5,050,800,000
Current Cash 1,416,700,000
Current Liabilities 3,730,300,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -96,200,000
Change in NCWC -529,900,000
EBIT 1,887,900,000
Tax Provision 397,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization 686,600,000
Capital Expenditure -898,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 714,028,871
Current Assets 4,269,400,000
Current Cash 539,200,000
Current Liabilities 3,546,500,000
Current Debt 250,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 433,700,000
Change in NCWC -1,341,800,000
EBIT 1,575,200,000
Tax Provision 271,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 645,400,000
Capital Expenditure -1,034,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -545,534,759
Current Assets 4,293,300,000
Current Cash 422,100,000
Current Liabilities 2,095,700,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,775,500,000
Change in NCWC 240,200,000
EBIT 1,787,500,000
Tax Provision 281,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 621,100,000
Capital Expenditure -817,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,831,700,000
Current Assets 4,576,300,000
Current Cash 1,097,800,000
Current Liabilities 2,859,100,000
Current Debt 915,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,535,300,000
Change in NCWC 421,500,000
EBIT 1,999,100,000
Tax Provision -10,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 611,200,000
Capital Expenditure -632,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,399,600,000
Current Assets 3,938,000,000
Current Cash 870,400,000
Current Liabilities 2,105,900,000
Current Debt 152,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,113,800,000
Change in NCWC -94,600,000
EBIT 1,704,800,000
Tax Provision 433,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 637,500,000
Capital Expenditure -564,700,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,127,471,671
Current Assets 3,935,900,000
Current Cash 740,100,000
Current Liabilities 2,095,400,000
Current Debt 108,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,208,400,000
Change in NCWC 939,500,000
EBIT 1,049,700,000
Tax Provision 165,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 487,600,000
Capital Expenditure -480,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,607,990,629
Current Assets 1,994,600,000
Current Cash 864,100,000
Current Liabilities 861,600,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 268,900,000
Change in NCWC -168,400,000
EBIT 1,040,200,000
Tax Provision 355,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 205,900,000
Capital Expenditure -325,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 365,104,611
Current Assets 1,378,500,000
Current Cash 267,700,000
Current Liabilities 686,300,000
Current Debt 12,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 437,300,000
Change in NCWC 25,600,000
EBIT 970,300,000
Tax Provision 357,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 190,500,000
Capital Expenditure -330,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 492,404,401
Current Assets 1,473,500,000
Current Cash 399,900,000
Current Liabilities 676,200,000
Current Debt 14,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 411,700,000
Change in NCWC 56,100,000
EBIT 920,100,000
Tax Provision 359,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 175,300,000
Capital Expenditure -312,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 501,300,245

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