DLTR Intrinsic Value

DLTR

Dollar Tree Inc – All Other General Merchandise Stores

at dollar tree, it’s really all about the thrill of the hunt. as a fortune 150 company and the nation’s leading operator of single-price-point dollar stores, we operate more than 6,000 stores and 11 distribution centers across 48 contiguous u.s. states and five canadian provinces. we hunt the world over to find the most exciting merchandise for our customers, who are always telling us that they can’t believe the cool items they find in our stores for just $1.00. from party supplies and home décor to health & beauty, seasonal items, food & snacks, and so much more, we offer a huge selection — everything you need and want for every day, every holiday, and every occasion... and every single item is only $1 (or less)! we are experts in creative ideas and sound business management. for over 28 years, our price, philosophy, and mission have not changed, yet we are constantly adapting to an ever-changing marketplace with innovative and creative ideas. we understand the value of a dollar, plus

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$474.14
Latest Price	$127.76
Relative Value	73% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 12.1%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 12.1%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2024	2.42	2.32
2025	2.71	2.5
2026	3.04	2.69
2027	3.41	2.9
2028	3.83	3.12

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 115 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 89.8 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 13.5 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 103 billion.

There are presently 218.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 474.14.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	6,367,100,000
Current Cash	642,800,000
Current Liabilities	4,225,200,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,499,100,000
Change in NCWC	1,051,400,000
EBIT	2,236,300,000
Tax Provision	495,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization	767,900,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,248,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	2,282,107,609

Current Assets	5,609,200,000
Current Cash	984,900,000
Current Liabilities	4,176,600,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	447,700,000
Change in NCWC	543,900,000
EBIT	1,811,400,000
Tax Provision	304,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization	716,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,021,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,712,390,760

Current Assets	5,050,800,000
Current Cash	1,416,700,000
Current Liabilities	3,730,300,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-96,200,000
Change in NCWC	-529,900,000
EBIT	1,887,900,000
Tax Provision	397,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization	686,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-898,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	714,028,871

Current Assets	4,269,400,000
Current Cash	539,200,000
Current Liabilities	3,546,500,000
Current Debt	250,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	433,700,000
Change in NCWC	-1,341,800,000
EBIT	1,575,200,000
Tax Provision	271,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	645,400,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,034,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-545,534,759

Current Assets	4,293,300,000
Current Cash	422,100,000
Current Liabilities	2,095,700,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,775,500,000
Change in NCWC	240,200,000
EBIT	1,787,500,000
Tax Provision	281,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	621,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-817,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,831,700,000

Current Assets	4,576,300,000
Current Cash	1,097,800,000
Current Liabilities	2,859,100,000
Current Debt	915,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,535,300,000
Change in NCWC	421,500,000
EBIT	1,999,100,000
Tax Provision	-10,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization	611,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-632,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	2,399,600,000

Current Assets	3,938,000,000
Current Cash	870,400,000
Current Liabilities	2,105,900,000
Current Debt	152,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,113,800,000
Change in NCWC	-94,600,000
EBIT	1,704,800,000
Tax Provision	433,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization	637,500,000
Capital Expenditure	-564,700,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,127,471,671

Current Assets	3,935,900,000
Current Cash	740,100,000
Current Liabilities	2,095,400,000
Current Debt	108,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,208,400,000
Change in NCWC	939,500,000
EBIT	1,049,700,000
Tax Provision	165,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	487,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-480,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,607,990,629

Current Assets	1,994,600,000
Current Cash	864,100,000
Current Liabilities	861,600,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	268,900,000
Change in NCWC	-168,400,000
EBIT	1,040,200,000
Tax Provision	355,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	205,900,000
Capital Expenditure	-325,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	365,104,611

Current Assets	1,378,500,000
Current Cash	267,700,000
Current Liabilities	686,300,000
Current Debt	12,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	437,300,000
Change in NCWC	25,600,000
EBIT	970,300,000
Tax Provision	357,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	190,500,000
Capital Expenditure	-330,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	492,404,401

Current Assets	1,473,500,000
Current Cash	399,900,000
Current Liabilities	676,200,000
Current Debt	14,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	411,700,000
Change in NCWC	56,100,000
EBIT	920,100,000
Tax Provision	359,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	175,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-312,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	501,300,245

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