FAST Intrinsic Value

FAST

Fastenal Co. – Industrial Supplies Merchant Wholesalers

Fastenal helps customers simplify and realize product and process savings across their supply chain. It sells a broad oCering of products spanning more than nine major product lines - from fasteners and tools to safety and janitorial supplies. These products are eciently distributed to manufacturing facilities, job sites, and other customer locations through local service teams and point-of-use inventory solutions, including industrial vending technology and bin stock programs (Fastenal Managed Inventory or FMI®). Its distribution system centers on over 3,200 in-market locations (a combination of public branches and customer-speci c Onsite locations), primarily in North America but also in Asia, Europe, and Central and South America, each providing tailored inventory, exible service, and custom solutions to drive the unique goals of local customers. These in-market servicing locations are supported by Vfteen regional distribution centers, a captive logistics Deet, robust sourcing, quality and manufacturing resources, and multiple teams of industry specialists and support personnel - all working toward Fastenal's common goal of Growth Through Customer Service®.

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$136.57
Latest Price	$53.14
Relative Value	61% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 15.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 15.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	1.58	1.53
2024	1.82	1.7
2025	2.1	1.9
2026	2.41	2.11
2027	2.78	2.36

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 83.4 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 68.4 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 9.6 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 78.0 billion.

There are presently 571.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 136.57.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	3,124,800,000
Current Cash	230,100,000
Current Liabilities	789,800,000
Current Debt	201,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	2,306,700,000
Change in NCWC	308,500,000
EBIT	1,453,600,000
Tax Provision	353,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	176,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-173,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,408,465,166

Current Assets	2,856,600,000
Current Cash	236,200,000
Current Liabilities	682,200,000
Current Debt	60,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,998,200,000
Change in NCWC	317,000,000
EBIT	1,217,400,000
Tax Provision	282,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	170,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-156,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,263,452,210

Current Assets	2,499,600,000
Current Cash	245,700,000
Current Liabilities	612,700,000
Current Debt	40,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,681,200,000
Change in NCWC	-59,400,000
EBIT	1,140,400,000
Tax Provision	273,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	162,400,000
Capital Expenditure	-168,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	799,840,090

Current Assets	2,457,200,000
Current Cash	174,900,000
Current Liabilities	544,700,000
Current Debt	3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,740,600,000
Change in NCWC	26,000,000
EBIT	1,056,000,000
Tax Provision	252,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	148,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-246,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	728,520,753

Current Assets	2,316,200,000
Current Cash	167,200,000
Current Liabilities	437,400,000
Current Debt	3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,714,600,000
Change in NCWC	243,800,000
EBIT	998,700,000
Tax Provision	235,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	138,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-176,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	966,513,100

Current Assets	1,935,700,000
Current Cash	116,900,000
Current Liabilities	351,000,000
Current Debt	3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,470,800,000
Change in NCWC	127,927,000
EBIT	880,800,000
Tax Provision	294,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	123,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-119,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	715,329,760

Current Assets	1,720,770,000
Current Cash	112,735,000
Current Liabilities	275,644,000
Current Debt	10,482,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,342,873,000
Change in NCWC	118,232,000
EBIT	795,307,000
Tax Provision	290,251,000
Depreciation and Amortization	103,525,000
Capital Expenditure	-189,451,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	535,311,904

Current Assets	1,664,776,000
Current Cash	129,019,000
Current Liabilities	373,166,000
Current Debt	62,050,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,224,641,000
Change in NCWC	41,225,000
EBIT	827,344,000
Tax Provision	309,659,000
Depreciation and Amortization	86,071,000
Capital Expenditure	-155,168,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	489,316,657

Current Assets	1,583,265,000
Current Cash	114,496,000
Current Liabilities	375,353,000
Current Debt	90,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,183,416,000
Change in NCWC	73,744,000
EBIT	786,626,000
Tax Provision	293,284,000
Depreciation and Amortization	72,145,000
Capital Expenditure	-189,474,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	450,057,943

Current Assets	1,408,461,000
Current Cash	58,957,000
Current Liabilities	239,832,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,109,672,000
Change in NCWC	107,155,000
EBIT	712,014,000
Tax Provision	264,832,000
Depreciation and Amortization	63,770,000
Capital Expenditure	-206,540,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	412,106,709

Current Assets	1,286,656,000
Current Cash	79,965,000
Current Liabilities	204,174,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,002,517,000
Change in NCWC	99,038,000
EBIT	673,288,000
Tax Provision	253,619,000
Depreciation and Amortization	53,459,000
Capital Expenditure	-138,406,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	434,086,167

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