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Fastenal Co. – Industrial Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
Fastenal helps customers simplify and realize product and process savings across their supply chain. It sells a broad oCering of products spanning more than nine major product lines - from fasteners and tools to safety and janitorial supplies. These products are eciently distributed to manufacturing facilities, job sites, and other customer locations through local service teams and point-of-use inventory solutions, including industrial vending technology and bin stock programs (Fastenal Managed Inventory or FMI®). Its distribution system centers on over 3,200 in-market locations (a combination of public branches and customer-speci c Onsite locations), primarily in North America but also in Asia, Europe, and Central and South America, each providing tailored inventory, exible service, and custom solutions to drive the unique goals of local customers. These in-market servicing locations are supported by Vfteen regional distribution centers, a captive logistics Deet, robust sourcing, quality and manufacturing resources, and multiple teams of industry specialists and support personnel - all working toward Fastenal's common goal of Growth Through Customer Service®.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $69.16
Latest Price $46.04
Relative Value 33% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 17.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 1.52 1.41
2023 1.79 1.54
2024 2.11 1.67
2025 2.47 1.82
2026 2.91 1.98
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 49.6 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 31.3 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 8.42 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 39.7 billion.

There are presently 575.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 69.16.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 5,713,200,000
Current Cash 472,400,000
Current Liabilities 1,364,400,000
Current Debt 120,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,996,400,000
Change in NCWC 2,315,200,000
EBIT 2,434,800,000
Tax Provision 565,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 341,400,000
Capital Expenditure -313,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,208,104,421
Current Assets 2,499,600,000
Current Cash 245,700,000
Current Liabilities 612,700,000
Current Debt 40,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,681,200,000
Change in NCWC -59,400,000
EBIT 1,140,400,000
Tax Provision 273,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 162,400,000
Capital Expenditure -168,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 799,840,090
Current Assets 2,457,200,000
Current Cash 174,900,000
Current Liabilities 544,700,000
Current Debt 3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,740,600,000
Change in NCWC 26,000,000
EBIT 1,056,000,000
Tax Provision 252,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 148,700,000
Capital Expenditure -246,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 728,520,753
Current Assets 2,316,200,000
Current Cash 167,200,000
Current Liabilities 437,400,000
Current Debt 3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,714,600,000
Change in NCWC 243,800,000
EBIT 998,700,000
Tax Provision 235,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 138,200,000
Capital Expenditure -176,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 966,513,100
Current Assets 1,935,700,000
Current Cash 116,900,000
Current Liabilities 351,000,000
Current Debt 3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,470,800,000
Change in NCWC 127,927,000
EBIT 880,800,000
Tax Provision 294,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 123,600,000
Capital Expenditure -119,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 715,329,760
Current Assets 1,720,770,000
Current Cash 112,735,000
Current Liabilities 275,644,000
Current Debt 10,482,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,342,873,000
Change in NCWC 118,232,000
EBIT 795,307,000
Tax Provision 290,251,000
Depreciation and Amortization 103,525,000
Capital Expenditure -189,451,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 535,311,904
Current Assets 1,664,776,000
Current Cash 129,019,000
Current Liabilities 373,166,000
Current Debt 62,050,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,224,641,000
Change in NCWC 41,225,000
EBIT 827,344,000
Tax Provision 309,659,000
Depreciation and Amortization 86,071,000
Capital Expenditure -155,168,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 489,316,657
Current Assets 1,583,265,000
Current Cash 114,496,000
Current Liabilities 375,353,000
Current Debt 90,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,183,416,000
Change in NCWC 73,744,000
EBIT 786,626,000
Tax Provision 293,284,000
Depreciation and Amortization 72,145,000
Capital Expenditure -189,474,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 450,057,943
Current Assets 1,408,461,000
Current Cash 58,957,000
Current Liabilities 239,832,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,109,672,000
Change in NCWC 107,155,000
EBIT 712,014,000
Tax Provision 264,832,000
Depreciation and Amortization 63,770,000
Capital Expenditure -206,540,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 412,106,709
Current Assets 1,286,656,000
Current Cash 79,965,000
Current Liabilities 204,174,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,002,517,000
Change in NCWC 99,038,000
EBIT 673,288,000
Tax Provision 253,619,000
Depreciation and Amortization 53,459,000
Capital Expenditure -138,406,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 434,086,167

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