FAST Intrinsic Value

FAST

Fastenal Co. – Industrial Supplies Merchant Wholesalers

since 1967, fastenal has grown from a single store to nearly 2,700 locations, each providing tailored local inventory and personal service for our customers. as we've expanded across the world, we've retained a core belief in people and their ability to accomplish remarkable things - if given the opportunity. from this philosophy stems an entrepreneurial culture that challenges every employee to run their own business, create their own success, and rise up to become company leaders. backed by our global sourcing, quality, and logistics operations, each store is a local, one-stop source for a spectrum of oem, mro and construction supplies. working within our decentralized environment, store personnel take a flexible approach to support local customers – sourcing products, making emergency deliveries, managing a lean flow of inventory to points of use, and leveraging our services, solutions and specialists to drive continual business improvements. local product and local people: th

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$56.91
Latest Price	$54.80
Relative Value	4% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 15.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 9.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 15.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	1.58	1.45
2024	1.82	1.53
2025	2.1	1.62
2026	2.41	1.71
2027	2.78	1.81

Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 40.8 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 24.4 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 8.13 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 32.5 billion.

There are presently 571.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 56.91.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	3,124,800,000
Current Cash	230,100,000
Current Liabilities	789,800,000
Current Debt	201,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	2,306,700,000
Change in NCWC	308,500,000
EBIT	1,453,600,000
Tax Provision	353,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	176,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-173,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,408,465,166

Current Assets	2,856,600,000
Current Cash	236,200,000
Current Liabilities	682,200,000
Current Debt	60,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,998,200,000
Change in NCWC	317,000,000
EBIT	1,217,400,000
Tax Provision	282,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	170,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-156,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,263,452,210

Current Assets	2,499,600,000
Current Cash	245,700,000
Current Liabilities	612,700,000
Current Debt	40,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,681,200,000
Change in NCWC	-59,400,000
EBIT	1,140,400,000
Tax Provision	273,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	162,400,000
Capital Expenditure	-168,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	799,840,090

Current Assets	2,457,200,000
Current Cash	174,900,000
Current Liabilities	544,700,000
Current Debt	3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,740,600,000
Change in NCWC	26,000,000
EBIT	1,056,000,000
Tax Provision	252,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	148,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-246,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	728,520,753

Current Assets	2,316,200,000
Current Cash	167,200,000
Current Liabilities	437,400,000
Current Debt	3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,714,600,000
Change in NCWC	243,800,000
EBIT	998,700,000
Tax Provision	235,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	138,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-176,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	966,513,100

Current Assets	1,935,700,000
Current Cash	116,900,000
Current Liabilities	351,000,000
Current Debt	3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,470,800,000
Change in NCWC	127,927,000
EBIT	880,800,000
Tax Provision	294,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	123,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-119,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	715,329,760

Current Assets	1,720,770,000
Current Cash	112,735,000
Current Liabilities	275,644,000
Current Debt	10,482,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,342,873,000
Change in NCWC	118,232,000
EBIT	795,307,000
Tax Provision	290,251,000
Depreciation and Amortization	103,525,000
Capital Expenditure	-189,451,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	535,311,904

Current Assets	1,664,776,000
Current Cash	129,019,000
Current Liabilities	373,166,000
Current Debt	62,050,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,224,641,000
Change in NCWC	41,225,000
EBIT	827,344,000
Tax Provision	309,659,000
Depreciation and Amortization	86,071,000
Capital Expenditure	-155,168,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	489,316,657

Current Assets	1,583,265,000
Current Cash	114,496,000
Current Liabilities	375,353,000
Current Debt	90,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,183,416,000
Change in NCWC	73,744,000
EBIT	786,626,000
Tax Provision	293,284,000
Depreciation and Amortization	72,145,000
Capital Expenditure	-189,474,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	450,057,943

Current Assets	1,408,461,000
Current Cash	58,957,000
Current Liabilities	239,832,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,109,672,000
Change in NCWC	107,155,000
EBIT	712,014,000
Tax Provision	264,832,000
Depreciation and Amortization	63,770,000
Capital Expenditure	-206,540,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	412,106,709

Current Assets	1,286,656,000
Current Cash	79,965,000
Current Liabilities	204,174,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,002,517,000
Change in NCWC	99,038,000
EBIT	673,288,000
Tax Provision	253,619,000
Depreciation and Amortization	53,459,000
Capital Expenditure	-138,406,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	434,086,167

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