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Fair, Isaac Corp. – Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), powers decisions that help people and businesses around the world prosper. Founded in 1956 and based in Silicon Valley, the company is a pioneer in the use of predictive analytics and data science to improve operational decisions. FICO holds more than 195 US and foreign patents on technologies that increase profitability, customer satisfaction and growth for businesses in financial services, telecommunications, health care, retail and many other industries. Using FICO solutions, businesses in more than 100 countries do everything from protecting 2.6 billion payment cards from fraud, to helping people get credit, to ensuring that millions of airplanes and rental cars are in the right place at the right time.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,088.91
Latest Price $696.88
Relative Value 36% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 18.1%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 18.1%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2023 504 487
2024 595 557
2025 703 637
2026 830 728
2027 981 832
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 29400 million. This corresponds to a present value of 24200 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 3240 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 27400 million.

There are presently 25.2 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1088.91.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 484,715,000
Current Cash 133,202,000
Current Liabilities 331,459,000
Current Debt 30,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 50,054,000
Change in NCWC 3,641,000
EBIT 542,414,000
Tax Provision 97,768,000
Depreciation and Amortization 20,465,000
Capital Expenditure -6,029,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 447,973,029
Current Assets 550,974,000
Current Cash 195,354,000
Current Liabilities 559,207,000
Current Debt 250,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 46,413,000
Change in NCWC -10,760,000
EBIT 413,307,000
Tax Provision 81,058,000
Depreciation and Amortization 25,592,000
Capital Expenditure -7,569,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 349,762,845
Current Assets 534,078,000
Current Cash 157,394,000
Current Liabilities 414,511,000
Current Debt 95,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 57,173,000
Change in NCWC -19,279,000
EBIT 340,998,000
Tax Provision 20,589,000
Depreciation and Amortization 30,367,000
Capital Expenditure -21,989,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 302,778,681
Current Assets 455,706,000
Current Cash 106,426,000
Current Liabilities 490,828,000
Current Debt 218,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 76,452,000
Change in NCWC 15,178,000
EBIT 253,548,000
Tax Provision 23,948,000
Depreciation and Amortization 31,612,000
Capital Expenditure -23,981,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 248,255,406
Current Assets 338,512,000
Current Cash 90,023,000
Current Liabilities 422,215,000
Current Debt 235,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 61,274,000
Change in NCWC 40,616,000
EBIT 206,437,000
Tax Provision 45,595,000
Depreciation and Amortization 30,182,000
Capital Expenditure -31,299,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 195,872,200
Current Assets 310,931,000
Current Cash 105,618,000
Current Liabilities 326,655,000
Current Debt 142,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 20,658,000
Change in NCWC -1,977,000
EBIT 181,671,000
Tax Provision 23,068,000
Depreciation and Amortization 36,214,000
Capital Expenditure -19,828,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 168,385,869
Current Assets 267,638,000
Current Cash 75,926,000
Current Liabilities 246,077,000
Current Debt 77,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 22,635,000
Change in NCWC -25,972,000
EBIT 169,592,000
Tax Provision 35,121,000
Depreciation and Amortization 31,633,000
Capital Expenditure -21,969,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 112,084,014
Current Assets 286,602,000
Current Cash 86,120,000
Current Liabilities 243,875,000
Current Debt 92,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 48,607,000
Change in NCWC 36,559,000
EBIT 155,747,000
Tax Provision 22,736,000
Depreciation and Amortization 33,889,000
Capital Expenditure -24,999,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 168,779,956
Current Assets 288,527,000
Current Cash 105,075,000
Current Liabilities 341,404,000
Current Debt 170,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 12,048,000
Change in NCWC -11,082,000
EBIT 166,149,000
Tax Provision 38,252,000
Depreciation and Amortization 32,632,000
Capital Expenditure -12,590,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 127,370,069
Current Assets 249,188,000
Current Cash 83,178,000
Current Liabilities 165,880,000
Current Debt 23,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 23,130,000
Change in NCWC 18,027,000
EBIT 165,079,000
Tax Provision 41,889,000
Depreciation and Amortization 33,214,000
Capital Expenditure -24,147,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 139,780,329
Current Assets 259,325,000
Current Cash 93,617,000
Current Liabilities 209,605,000
Current Debt 49,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 5,103,000
Change in NCWC 20,698,000
EBIT 173,483,000
Tax Provision 44,239,000
Depreciation and Amortization 21,549,000
Capital Expenditure -25,483,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 133,915,926

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