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Flowers Foods, Inc. – Commercial Bakeries
flowers foods, inc. (nyse: flo), with 2014 sales of $3.75 billion, is a leading producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods for retail and foodservice customers in the u.s. the company’s 46 highly efficient bakeries produce breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, pastries, and tortillas. approximately 81 percent of the u.s. population has access to the company’s fresh bakery foods through a network of independent distributors serving the east, south, and southwest. flowers’ frozen bakery items and snack cakes are delivered to customers’ warehouses nationwide. flowers' top brands include nature's own, whitewheat, wonder bread, cobblestone mill, tastykake, mrs. freshley's, european bakers, bluebird, and mi casa and regional brands that include merita, home pride, butternut, country kitchen, barowsky's organics, butterkrust, captain john derst's, evangeline maid, sunbeam, bunny, mary jane, aunt hattie's, and holsum, and mary jane & friends.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $34.13
Latest Price $21.24
Relative Value 38% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 0.9%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 0.9%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2023 243 234
2024 245 228
2025 247 222
2026 249 216
2027 252 211
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 7550 million. This corresponds to a present value of 6100 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1110 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 7210 million.

There are presently 211.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 34.13.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 804,940,000
Current Cash 165,134,000
Current Liabilities 564,425,000
Current Debt 19,739,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 95,120,000
Change in NCWC 36,045,000
EBIT 311,276,000
Tax Provision 70,317,000
Depreciation and Amortization 141,957,000
Capital Expenditure -169,071,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 246,932,180
Current Assets 746,118,000
Current Cash 185,871,000
Current Liabilities 519,917,000
Current Debt 18,745,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 59,075,000
Change in NCWC 13,784,000
EBIT 299,164,000
Tax Provision 64,585,000
Depreciation and Amortization 136,559,000
Capital Expenditure -200,653,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 177,496,891
Current Assets 838,203,000
Current Cash 307,476,000
Current Liabilities 504,105,000
Current Debt 18,669,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 45,291,000
Change in NCWC 4,887,000
EBIT 357,078,000
Tax Provision 48,393,000
Depreciation and Amortization 141,384,000
Capital Expenditure -97,929,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 319,325,687
Current Assets 553,918,000
Current Cash 11,044,000
Current Liabilities 528,143,000
Current Debt 25,673,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 40,404,000
Change in NCWC -99,121,000
EBIT 248,915,000
Tax Provision 47,545,000
Depreciation and Amortization 144,228,000
Capital Expenditure -103,685,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 134,534,961
Current Assets 543,724,000
Current Cash 25,306,000
Current Liabilities 400,339,000
Current Debt 21,446,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 139,525,000
Change in NCWC 13,620,000
EBIT 233,644,000
Tax Provision 40,001,000
Depreciation and Amortization 144,124,000
Capital Expenditure -99,422,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 244,563,148
Current Assets 507,191,000
Current Cash 5,129,000
Current Liabilities 393,951,000
Current Debt 17,794,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 125,905,000
Change in NCWC -35,298,000
EBIT 261,084,000
Tax Provision -827,000
Depreciation and Amortization 146,719,000
Capital Expenditure -75,232,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 297,273,000
Current Assets 476,842,000
Current Cash 6,410,000
Current Liabilities 340,624,000
Current Debt 31,395,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 161,203,000
Change in NCWC -50,873,000
EBIT 295,413,000
Tax Provision 85,761,000
Depreciation and Amortization 140,869,000
Capital Expenditure -101,727,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 182,154,313
Current Assets 537,515,000
Current Cash 14,378,000
Current Liabilities 403,738,000
Current Debt 92,677,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 212,076,000
Change in NCWC 24,425,000
EBIT 301,650,000
Tax Provision 103,840,000
Depreciation and Amortization 132,175,000
Capital Expenditure -90,773,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 260,582,726
Current Assets 460,563,000
Current Cash 7,523,000
Current Liabilities 315,553,000
Current Debt 50,164,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 187,651,000
Change in NCWC -11,061,000
EBIT 301,090,000
Tax Provision 92,315,000
Depreciation and Amortization 128,961,000
Capital Expenditure -83,778,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 231,519,746
Current Assets 487,405,000
Current Cash 8,530,000
Current Liabilities 327,782,000
Current Debt 47,619,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 198,712,000
Change in NCWC 13,652,000
EBIT 285,162,000
Tax Provision 91,479,000
Depreciation and Amortization 118,491,000
Capital Expenditure -125,599,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 210,786,274
Current Assets 464,451,000
Current Cash 13,275,000
Current Liabilities 354,958,000
Current Debt 88,842,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 185,060,000
Change in NCWC 39,924,000
EBIT 218,511,000
Tax Provision 72,651,000
Depreciation and Amortization 102,690,000
Capital Expenditure -85,108,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 199,976,905

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