DCF Tool

FOSL

Fossil Group Inc – Other Measuring and Controlling Device Manufacturing
Fossil Group, Inc. is a global design, marketing, distribution and innovation company specializing in lifestyle accessories. Under a diverse portfolio of owned and licensed brands, its offerings includes fashion watches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods and wearables. Fossil is committed to delivering the best in design and innovation across its owned brands, Fossil, Michele, Misfit, Relic, Skagen and Zodiac, and licensed brands, Armani Exchange, BMW, Diesel, DKNY, Emporio Armani, kate spade new york, Michael Kors, PUMA and Tory Burch. Fossil brings each brand story to life through an extensive distribution network across numerous geographies, categories and channels.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $0.40
Latest Price $2.29
Relative Value 473% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -35.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 10.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -35.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2023 6.48 5.87
2024 4.2 3.45
2025 2.72 2.02
2026 1.76 1.19
2027 1.14 0.698
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 13.9 million. This corresponds to a present value of 7.71 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 13.2 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 20.9 million.

There are presently 52.4 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 0.4.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 945,300,000
Current Cash 198,726,000
Current Liabilities 425,920,000
Current Debt 342,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 320,996,000
Change in NCWC 84,178,000
EBIT 6,858,000
Tax Provision 21,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization 23,333,000
Capital Expenditure -13,262,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 101,107,000
Current Assets 1,022,755,000
Current Cash 250,844,000
Current Liabilities 535,647,000
Current Debt 554,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 236,818,000
Change in NCWC 79,273,000
EBIT 123,400,000
Tax Provision 26,427,000
Depreciation and Amortization 29,606,000
Capital Expenditure -10,293,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 160,515,117
Current Assets 990,475,000
Current Cash 315,965,000
Current Liabilities 558,526,000
Current Debt 41,561,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 157,545,000
Change in NCWC -168,743,000
EBIT -96,692,000
Tax Provision -76,043,000
Depreciation and Amortization 43,134,000
Capital Expenditure -8,738,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -231,039,000
Current Assets 1,059,458,000
Current Cash 200,218,000
Current Liabilities 559,180,000
Current Debt 26,228,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 326,288,000
Change in NCWC -49,532,000
EBIT 17,495,000
Tax Provision 18,681,000
Depreciation and Amortization 54,792,000
Capital Expenditure -20,894,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,861,000
Current Assets 1,258,569,000
Current Cash 403,373,000
Current Liabilities 605,803,000
Current Debt 126,427,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 375,820,000
Change in NCWC -176,980,000
EBIT 114,995,000
Tax Provision 21,108,000
Depreciation and Amortization 67,584,000
Capital Expenditure -17,961,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -33,470,000
Current Assets 1,290,988,000
Current Cash 231,244,000
Current Liabilities 509,088,000
Current Debt 2,144,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 552,800,000
Change in NCWC -108,943,000
EBIT 30,563,000
Tax Provision 19,805,000
Depreciation and Amortization 80,973,000
Capital Expenditure -25,520,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -22,927,000
Current Assets 1,347,290,000
Current Cash 297,330,000
Current Liabilities 414,585,000
Current Debt 26,368,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 661,743,000
Change in NCWC -25,282,000
EBIT 153,603,000
Tax Provision 28,705,000
Depreciation and Amortization 94,592,000
Capital Expenditure -65,674,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 118,666,248
Current Assets 1,442,670,000
Current Cash 289,275,000
Current Liabilities 489,529,000
Current Debt 23,159,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 687,025,000
Change in NCWC -96,385,000
EBIT 315,634,000
Tax Provision 81,757,000
Depreciation and Amortization 87,662,000
Capital Expenditure -79,767,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 144,344,244
Current Assets 1,489,854,000
Current Cash 276,261,000
Current Liabilities 446,829,000
Current Debt 16,646,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 783,410,000
Change in NCWC 102,890,000
EBIT 566,536,000
Tax Provision 171,467,000
Depreciation and Amortization 95,931,000
Capital Expenditure -94,763,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 496,528,316
Current Assets 1,479,462,000
Current Cash 320,479,000
Current Liabilities 491,906,000
Current Debt 13,443,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 680,520,000
Change in NCWC 117,755,000
EBIT 562,201,000
Tax Provision 173,419,000
Depreciation and Amortization 81,936,000
Capital Expenditure -110,052,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 478,194,291

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