DCF Tool

GBX

Greenbrier Cos., Inc. – Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturing
Greenbrier, headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon, is a leading international supplier of equipment and services to global freight transportation markets. Greenbrier designs, builds and markets freight railcars and marine barges in North America. Greenbrier Europeis an end-to-end freight railcar manufacturing, engineering and repair business with operations in Poland, Romaniaand Turkeythat serves customers across Europeand in other geographies as opportunities arise. Greenbrier builds freight railcars and rail castings in Brazilthrough two separate strategic partnerships. We are a leading provider of freight railcar wheel services, parts, repair, refurbishment and retrofitting services in North Americathrough our wheels, repair & parts business unit. Greenbrier offers railcar management, regulatory compliance services and leasing services to railroads and related transportation industries in North America. Through unconsolidated joint ventures, we produce industrial and rail castings, and other components. Greenbrier owns a lease fleet of 8,300 railcars and performs management services for 393,000 railcars.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $2,789.04
Latest Price $39.91
Relative Value 99% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 44.3%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 44.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 0.764 0.741
2023 1.1 1.04
2024 1.59 1.45
2025 2.3 2.03
2026 3.31 2.84
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 99.4 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 82.8 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 8.11 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 90.9 billion.

There are presently 32.6 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 2789.04.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 3,430,358,000
Current Cash 1,293,538,000
Current Liabilities 1,884,420,000
Current Debt 744,352,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 996,752,000
Change in NCWC 553,451,000
EBIT 86,570,000
Tax Provision -80,446,000
Depreciation and Amortization 201,434,000
Capital Expenditure -278,022,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 563,433,000
Current Assets 1,718,884,000
Current Cash 833,745,000
Current Liabilities 793,364,000
Current Debt 351,526,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 443,301,000
Change in NCWC -132,417,000
EBIT 151,385,000
Tax Provision 40,184,000
Depreciation and Amortization 109,850,000
Capital Expenditure -66,879,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 14,328,020
Current Assets 1,558,832,000
Current Cash 329,684,000
Current Liabilities 680,545,000
Current Debt 27,115,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 575,718,000
Change in NCWC 211,064,000
EBIT 147,373,000
Tax Provision 41,588,000
Depreciation and Amortization 83,731,000
Capital Expenditure -198,233,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 202,354,335
Current Assets 1,451,120,000
Current Cash 530,655,000
Current Liabilities 583,536,000
Current Debt 27,725,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 364,654,000
Change in NCWC 128,720,000
EBIT 189,955,000
Tax Provision 32,893,000
Depreciation and Amortization 74,356,000
Capital Expenditure -176,848,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 185,697,482
Current Assets 1,391,721,000
Current Cash 611,466,000
Current Liabilities 548,645,000
Current Debt 4,324,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 235,934,000
Change in NCWC -66,124,000
EBIT 238,928,000
Tax Provision 64,014,000
Depreciation and Amortization 65,129,000
Capital Expenditure -86,065,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 83,732,711
Current Assets 990,212,000
Current Cash 222,679,000
Current Liabilities 465,475,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 302,058,000
Change in NCWC -71,860,000
EBIT 394,852,000
Tax Provision 112,322,000
Depreciation and Amortization 63,345,000
Capital Expenditure -139,013,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 135,650,795
Current Assets 1,035,897,000
Current Cash 172,930,000
Current Liabilities 539,937,000
Current Debt 50,888,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 373,918,000
Change in NCWC 126,485,000
EBIT 387,318,000
Tax Provision 112,160,000
Depreciation and Amortization 45,156,000
Capital Expenditure -105,989,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 337,883,497
Current Assets 836,241,000
Current Cash 184,916,000
Current Liabilities 416,973,000
Current Debt 13,081,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 247,433,000
Change in NCWC 23,291,000
EBIT 198,305,000
Tax Provision 72,401,000
Depreciation and Amortization 40,422,000
Capital Expenditure -70,227,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 127,170,060
Current Assets 646,353,000
Current Cash 97,435,000
Current Liabilities 372,985,000
Current Debt 48,209,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 224,142,000
Change in NCWC 3,702,000
EBIT 103,384,000
Tax Provision 25,060,000
Depreciation and Amortization 41,447,000
Capital Expenditure -60,827,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 62,646,000
Current Assets 620,713,000
Current Cash 53,571,000
Current Liabilities 407,457,000
Current Debt 60,755,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 220,440,000
Change in NCWC -1,882,000
EBIT 109,408,000
Tax Provision 32,393,000
Depreciation and Amortization 42,371,000
Capital Expenditure -117,885,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -5,866,791

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