DCF Tool

GES

Guess Inc. – Family Clothing Stores
Established in 1981, GUESS began as a jeans company and has since successfully grown into a global lifestyle brand. Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes and licenses a lifestyle collection of contemporary apparel, denim, handbags, watches, eyewear, footwear and other related consumer products. Guess? products are distributed through branded Guess? stores as well as better department and specialty stores around the world. As of October 31, 2020, the Company directly operated 1,068 retail stores in the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Company's partners and distributors operated 536 additional retail stores worldwide. As of October 31, 2020, the Company and its partners and distributors operated in approximately 100 countries worldwide.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $0.14
Latest Price $21.43
Relative Value 14985% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -36.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 9.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -36.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2023 2.34 2.13
2024 1.5 1.24
2025 0.958 0.725
2026 0.613 0.423
2027 0.392 0.247
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 5.18 million. This corresponds to a present value of 2.97 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 4.77 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 7.73 million.

There are presently 54.4 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 0.14.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 1,284,094,000
Current Cash 415,565,000
Current Liabilities 817,874,000
Current Debt 43,379,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 94,034,000
Change in NCWC 54,449,000
EBIT 307,927,000
Tax Provision 73,680,000
Depreciation and Amortization 56,799,000
Capital Expenditure -63,521,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 266,235,520
Current Assets 1,232,524,000
Current Cash 469,110,000
Current Liabilities 762,539,000
Current Debt 38,710,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 39,585,000
Change in NCWC -111,114,000
EBIT 17,144,000
Tax Provision -6,338,000
Depreciation and Amortization 63,501,000
Capital Expenditure -18,876,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -49,345,000
Current Assets 1,064,235,000
Current Cash 284,613,000
Current Liabilities 638,413,000
Current Debt 9,490,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 150,699,000
Change in NCWC -188,487,000
EBIT 150,648,000
Tax Provision 22,513,000
Depreciation and Amortization 72,188,000
Capital Expenditure -61,868,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -54,927,142
Current Assets 1,088,695,000
Current Cash 210,460,000
Current Liabilities 543,364,000
Current Debt 4,315,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 339,186,000
Change in NCWC 62,922,000
EBIT 104,311,000
Tax Provision 29,542,000
Depreciation and Amortization 68,357,000
Capital Expenditure -108,117,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 61,498,101
Current Assets 1,108,705,000
Current Cash 367,441,000
Current Liabilities 467,845,000
Current Debt 2,845,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 276,264,000
Change in NCWC -26,732,000
EBIT 85,025,000
Tax Provision 74,172,000
Depreciation and Amortization 63,588,000
Capital Expenditure -84,655,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -36,946,000
Current Assets 1,044,012,000
Current Cash 396,129,000
Current Liabilities 345,453,000
Current Debt 566,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 302,996,000
Change in NCWC 35,259,000
EBIT 63,176,000
Tax Provision 28,212,000
Depreciation and Amortization 69,319,000
Capital Expenditure -90,581,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 43,926,939
Current Assets 1,036,252,000
Current Cash 445,480,000
Current Liabilities 327,059,000
Current Debt 4,024,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 267,737,000
Change in NCWC -59,721,000
EBIT 121,350,000
Tax Provision 42,464,000
Depreciation and Amortization 70,684,000
Capital Expenditure -83,844,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,983,087
Current Assets 1,111,359,000
Current Cash 483,483,000
Current Liabilities 301,966,000
Current Debt 1,548,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 327,458,000
Change in NCWC -14,695,000
EBIT 125,912,000
Tax Provision 45,824,000
Depreciation and Amortization 85,060,000
Capital Expenditure -71,498,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 84,433,064
Current Assets 1,216,086,000
Current Cash 508,068,000
Current Liabilities 370,025,000
Current Debt 4,160,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 342,153,000
Change in NCWC -46,080,000
EBIT 235,029,000
Tax Provision 75,248,000
Depreciation and Amortization 88,369,000
Capital Expenditure -75,438,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 125,963,370
Current Assets 1,107,225,000
Current Cash 335,927,000
Current Liabilities 384,966,000
Current Debt 1,901,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 388,233,000
Change in NCWC 40,622,000
EBIT 274,525,000
Tax Provision 99,128,000
Depreciation and Amortization 89,698,000
Capital Expenditure -99,591,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 208,276,963

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