GPK Intrinsic Value

GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Co – Folding Paperboard Box Manufacturing

inspired packaging. a world of difference. we’re a leader in the packaging industry, serving hundreds of the world’s most recognized brands. you’ve probably purchased food, beverages or other consumer products sold in our packaging. our focus on customer service has made us one of the world’s largest manufacturers of folding cartons, unbleached paperboard, coated recycled board, microwave packaging and machinery. we continue to set new standards for our industry, always looking ahead to help our customers meet changing consumer demands and their business goals. we combine market-specific expertise and innovative thinking to create inspired packaging. our mission of providing nature-based, renewable packaging improves the environment for us all. that’s why the world’s leading consumer and commercial brands are drawn to us. we design smart and attractive packaging that stands out in the highly competitive retail marketplace. but that’s just the beginning. our global capabilities,

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$141.96
Latest Price	$22.16
Relative Value	84% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 13.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 13.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	1.06	1.0
2024	1.19	1.08
2025	1.35	1.15
2026	1.52	1.24
2027	1.72	1.33

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 51.6 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 37.8 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 5.8 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 43.6 billion.

There are presently 307.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 141.96.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	2,706,000,000
Current Cash	150,000,000
Current Liabilities	1,933,000,000
Current Debt	53,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	676,000,000
Change in NCWC	116,000,000
EBIT	1,056,000,000
Tax Provision	194,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	553,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-549,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	889,877,094

Current Assets	2,502,000,000
Current Cash	172,000,000
Current Liabilities	2,049,000,000
Current Debt	279,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	560,000,000
Change in NCWC	78,200,000
EBIT	544,000,000
Tax Provision	74,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	489,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-802,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	170,386,206

Current Assets	2,020,200,000
Current Cash	179,000,000
Current Liabilities	1,856,600,000
Current Debt	497,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	481,800,000
Change in NCWC	-22,600,000
EBIT	588,500,000
Tax Provision	41,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	475,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-30,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	911,534,299

Current Assets	1,805,600,000
Current Cash	152,900,000
Current Liabilities	1,198,700,000
Current Debt	50,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	504,400,000
Change in NCWC	-68,600,000
EBIT	572,400,000
Tax Provision	76,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization	447,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-22,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	805,766,027

Current Assets	1,763,800,000
Current Cash	70,500,000
Current Liabilities	1,172,300,000
Current Debt	52,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	573,000,000
Change in NCWC	260,600,000
EBIT	474,300,000
Tax Provision	54,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	430,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-395,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	695,897,332

Current Assets	1,169,900,000
Current Cash	67,400,000
Current Liabilities	851,400,000
Current Debt	61,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	312,400,000
Change in NCWC	-27,000,000
EBIT	375,500,000
Tax Provision	-45,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	330,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-260,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	418,700,000

Current Assets	1,114,900,000
Current Cash	59,100,000
Current Liabilities	779,800,000
Current Debt	63,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	339,400,000
Change in NCWC	23,100,000
EBIT	434,900,000
Tax Provision	93,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization	299,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-278,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	352,508,592

Current Assets	1,066,800,000
Current Cash	54,900,000
Current Liabilities	732,200,000
Current Debt	36,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	316,300,000
Change in NCWC	-178,500,000
EBIT	450,300,000
Tax Provision	130,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization	280,500,000
Capital Expenditure	-244,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	145,317,558

Current Assets	1,220,900,000
Current Cash	81,600,000
Current Liabilities	676,700,000
Current Debt	32,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	494,800,000
Change in NCWC	-51,400,000
EBIT	427,100,000
Tax Provision	45,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization	270,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-201,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	300,026,636

Current Assets	1,232,200,000
Current Cash	52,200,000
Current Liabilities	711,200,000
Current Debt	77,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	546,200,000
Change in NCWC	67,700,000
EBIT	356,200,000
Tax Provision	67,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization	277,400,000
Capital Expenditure	-209,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	379,966,043

Current Assets	1,203,100,000
Current Cash	51,500,000
Current Liabilities	752,900,000
Current Debt	79,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	478,500,000
Change in NCWC	51,600,000
EBIT	351,100,000
Tax Provision	82,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	266,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-203,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	323,229,861

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