DCF Tool

GRBK

Green Brick Partners Inc – New Single-Family Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders)
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a diversified homebuilding and land development company. Green Brick owns four homebuilders in Dallas, Texas (CB JENI Homes, Normandy Homes, Southgate Homes and Trophy Signature Homes), as well as a controlling interest in homebuilders in Atlanta, Georgia (The Providence Group), Port St. Lucie, Florida (GHO Homes), and Dallas, Texas (Centre Living Homes). Green Brick also owns a noncontrolling interest in Challenger Homes in Colorado Springs, Colorado and retains interests in related financial services platforms, including Green Brick Title, Providence Group Title, and Green Brick Mortgage. The Company is engaged in all aspects of the homebuilding process, including land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, marketing, and sales for its residential neighborhoods and master planned communities.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,289.20
Latest Price $22.68
Relative Value 98% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 68.3%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 9.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 68.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 0.788 0.721
2023 1.33 1.11
2024 2.23 1.71
2025 3.76 2.64
2026 6.32 4.06
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 88.8 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 52.2 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 10.2 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 62.4 billion.

There are presently 48.4 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1289.2.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 1,289,310,000
Current Cash 78,696,000
Current Liabilities 171,115,000
Current Debt 210,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,039,709,000
Change in NCWC 293,286,000
EBIT 247,503,000
Tax Provision 52,605,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,744,000
Capital Expenditure -2,025,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 490,844,168
Current Assets 869,338,000
Current Cash 19,479,000
Current Liabilities 212,248,000
Current Debt 108,812,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 746,423,000
Change in NCWC 72,057,000
EBIT 139,124,000
Tax Provision 25,016,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,666,000
Capital Expenditure -2,867,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 187,610,187
Current Assets 791,556,000
Current Cash 33,269,000
Current Liabilities 248,563,000
Current Debt 164,642,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 674,366,000
Change in NCWC 90,040,000
EBIT 80,232,000
Tax Provision 20,027,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,079,000
Capital Expenditure -2,569,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 151,727,982
Current Assets 712,118,000
Current Cash 38,315,000
Current Liabilities 289,863,000
Current Debt 200,386,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 584,326,000
Change in NCWC 149,332,000
EBIT 80,759,000
Tax Provision 17,136,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,943,000
Capital Expenditure -3,211,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 212,878,353
Current Assets 533,944,000
Current Cash 36,684,000
Current Liabilities 179,192,000
Current Debt 116,926,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 434,994,000
Change in NCWC 8,202,000
EBIT 62,183,000
Tax Provision 39,031,000
Depreciation and Amortization 325,000
Capital Expenditure -149,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 32,778,029
Current Assets 515,500,000
Current Cash 35,157,000
Current Liabilities 139,499,000
Current Debt 85,948,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 426,792,000
Change in NCWC 43,046,000
EBIT 47,746,000
Tax Provision 15,381,000
Depreciation and Amortization 286,000
Capital Expenditure -458,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 76,093,330
Current Assets 448,018,000
Current Cash 19,909,000
Current Liabilities 102,021,000
Current Debt 57,658,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 383,746,000
Change in NCWC 62,013,000
EBIT 32,289,000
Tax Provision 9,171,000
Depreciation and Amortization 865,000
Capital Expenditure -307,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 86,330,145

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