DCF Tool

HCA

HCA Healthcare Inc – General Medical and Surgical Hospitals
Nashville-based HCA Healthcare is one of the nation's leading providers of healthcare services comprising more than 2,000 sites of care, including 187 hospitals, surgery centers, freestanding ERs, urgent care centers, and physician clinics, in 21 states and the United Kingdom. With its founding in 1968, HCA Healthcare created a new model for hospital care in the United States, using combined resources to strengthen hospitals, deliver patient-focused care and improve the practice of medicine. HCA Healthcare has conducted a number of clinical studies, including one that demonstrated that full-term delivery is healthier than early elective delivery of babies and another that identified a clinical protocol that can reduce bloodstream infections in ICU patients by 44 percent. HCA Healthcare is a learning health system that uses its more than 35 million annual patient encounters to advance science, improve patient care and save lives.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $598.36
Latest Price $264.41
Relative Value 56% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 9.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 9.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 6.78 6.34
2024 7.41 6.47
2025 8.09 6.6
2026 8.83 6.74
2027 9.64 6.88
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 197 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 132 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 33.0 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 165 billion.

There are presently 275.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 598.36.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 13,643,000,000
Current Cash 908,000,000
Current Liabilities 9,902,000,000
Current Debt 370,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,203,000,000
Change in NCWC 457,000,000
EBIT 9,098,000,000
Tax Provision 1,746,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,969,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,395,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,277,588,811
Current Assets 13,542,000,000
Current Cash 1,451,000,000
Current Liabilities 9,582,000,000
Current Debt 237,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,746,000,000
Change in NCWC 701,000,000
EBIT 9,791,000,000
Tax Provision 2,112,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,853,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,577,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,665,021,051
Current Assets 12,333,000,000
Current Cash 1,793,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,704,000,000
Current Debt 209,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,045,000,000
Change in NCWC -918,000,000
EBIT 7,316,000,000
Tax Provision 1,043,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,721,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,835,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,878,735,174
Current Assets 11,196,000,000
Current Cash 621,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,757,000,000
Current Debt 145,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,963,000,000
Change in NCWC 33,000,000
EBIT 7,261,000,000
Tax Provision 1,099,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,596,000,000
Capital Expenditure -4,158,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,210,291,571
Current Assets 10,213,000,000
Current Cash 502,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,569,000,000
Current Debt 788,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,930,000,000
Change in NCWC -357,000,000
EBIT 6,671,000,000
Tax Provision 946,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,278,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,573,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,836,101,030
Current Assets 9,977,000,000
Current Cash 732,000,000
Current Liabilities 6,158,000,000
Current Debt 200,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,287,000,000
Change in NCWC 465,000,000
EBIT 6,102,000,000
Tax Provision 1,638,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,131,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,015,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,401,540,059
Current Assets 9,086,000,000
Current Cash 646,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,834,000,000
Current Debt 216,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,822,000,000
Change in NCWC -386,000,000
EBIT 6,252,000,000
Tax Provision 1,378,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,966,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,760,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,280,886,486
Current Assets 9,232,000,000
Current Cash 741,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,516,000,000
Current Debt 233,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,208,000,000
Change in NCWC -14,000,000
EBIT 6,011,000,000
Tax Provision 1,261,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,904,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,375,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,610,439,979
Current Assets 8,930,000,000
Current Cash 566,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,480,000,000
Current Debt 338,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,222,000,000
Change in NCWC 508,000,000
EBIT 5,608,000,000
Tax Provision 1,108,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,820,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,176,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,974,977,305
Current Assets 8,037,000,000
Current Cash 414,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,695,000,000
Current Debt 786,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,714,000,000
Change in NCWC 393,000,000
EBIT 4,821,000,000
Tax Provision 950,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,753,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,943,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,469,366,598
Current Assets 7,763,000,000
Current Cash 705,000,000
Current Liabilities 6,172,000,000
Current Debt 1,435,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,321,000,000
Change in NCWC -392,000,000
EBIT 4,852,000,000
Tax Provision 888,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,679,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,862,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,788,203,870

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