DCF Tool

HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc. – Motorcycle, Bicycle, and Parts Manufacturing
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. Its vision: Building its legend and leading its industry through innovation, evolution and emotion. Its mission: More than building machines, it stands for the timeless pursuit of adventure. Freedom for the soul. Its ambition is to maintain its place as the most desirable motorcycle brand in the world. Since 1903, Harley-Davidson has defined motorcycle culture by delivering a motorcycle lifestyle with distinctive and customizable motorcycles, experiences, motorcycle accessories, riding gear and apparel. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides financing, insurance and other programs to help get riders on the road.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $0.18
Latest Price $45.71
Relative Value 25625% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -45.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.5%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -45.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 0.00694 0.00658
2023 0.00377 0.00339
2024 0.00205 0.00175
2025 0.00112 0.000901
2026 0.000607 0.000465
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 0.0178 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 0.0129 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 0.0131 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 0.026 billion.

There are presently 146.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 0.18.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 9,656,468,000
Current Cash 1,078,205,000
Current Liabilities 7,193,836,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,384,427,000
Change in NCWC 442,596,000
EBIT 826,854,000
Tax Provision 169,213,000
Depreciation and Amortization 165,185,000
Capital Expenditure -120,181,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,143,667,712
Current Assets 10,778,902,000
Current Cash 666,161,000
Current Liabilities 9,170,910,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 941,831,000
Change in NCWC -313,885,000
EBIT 139,688,000
Tax Provision -17,028,000
Depreciation and Amortization 185,715,000
Capital Expenditure -131,050,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -119,532,000
Current Assets 9,304,667,000
Current Cash 470,649,000
Current Liabilities 7,578,302,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,255,716,000
Change in NCWC 60,965,000
EBIT 587,961,000
Tax Provision 133,780,000
Depreciation and Amortization 232,537,000
Capital Expenditure -181,440,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 558,911,938
Current Assets 9,491,949,000
Current Cash 554,555,000
Current Liabilities 7,742,643,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,194,751,000
Change in NCWC -207,762,000
EBIT 806,924,000
Tax Provision 155,178,000
Depreciation and Amortization 264,863,000
Capital Expenditure -213,516,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 468,144,356
Current Assets 8,744,166,000
Current Cash 338,186,000
Current Liabilities 7,003,467,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,402,513,000
Change in NCWC 8,254,000
EBIT 891,263,000
Tax Provision 342,080,000
Depreciation and Amortization 222,188,000
Capital Expenditure -206,294,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 562,471,103
Current Assets 8,613,049,000
Current Cash 430,559,000
Current Liabilities 6,788,231,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,394,259,000
Change in NCWC -106,799,000
EBIT 1,048,936,000
Tax Provision 331,747,000
Depreciation and Amortization 209,555,000
Capital Expenditure -256,263,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 555,573,904
Current Assets 8,797,725,000
Current Cash 445,635,000
Current Liabilities 6,851,032,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,501,058,000
Change in NCWC -181,249,000
EBIT 1,155,695,000
Tax Provision 397,956,000
Depreciation and Amortization 198,074,000
Capital Expenditure -259,974,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 512,675,929
Current Assets 8,464,341,000
Current Cash 631,220,000
Current Liabilities 6,150,814,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,682,307,000
Change in NCWC -91,153,000
EBIT 1,280,983,000
Tax Provision 438,709,000
Depreciation and Amortization 179,300,000
Capital Expenditure -232,319,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 698,900,914
Current Assets 8,214,680,000
Current Cash 817,921,000
Current Liabilities 5,926,299,000
Current Debt 303,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,773,460,000
Change in NCWC 117,693,000
EBIT 1,151,571,000
Tax Provision 380,312,000
Depreciation and Amortization 167,072,000
Capital Expenditure -208,321,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 834,984,124
Current Assets 8,089,743,000
Current Cash 863,350,000
Current Liabilities 5,570,626,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,655,767,000
Change in NCWC 2,695,334,000
EBIT 1,028,651,000
Tax Provision 337,587,000
Depreciation and Amortization 168,978,000
Capital Expenditure -189,002,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,342,801,487

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