DCF Tool


Harley-Davidson, Inc. – Motorcycle, Bicycle, and Parts Manufacturing
harley-davidson fulfills dreams of personal freedom for people around the world. this has been our bold and unique purpose since 1903. we give people the means to express themselves; the means to liberate themselves from whatever constrains them. to do this, we must be the best at helping customers achieve personal freedom. their journey begins when they feel a deep emotional connection to our exceptional and distinct products. our retail experience takes them a step further, connecting them to the brand in their own highly personal and customized way. we can build the motorcycle the customer wants, when they want it, through flexible manufacturing. fulfilling dreams of personal freedom requires us to work as one company, one team, moving in one direction. we are customer led in all we do, and we believe and invest in our people and our communities. when we live our purpose, customers experience a lasting bond of freedom with one another and our dealers and h-d will continue to grow. f
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $0.15
Latest Price $32.41
Relative Value 22182% overvalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -44.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -44.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.00478 0.00462
2024 0.00266 0.00248
2025 0.00148 0.00133
2026 0.000823 0.000714
2027 0.000458 0.000383
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 0.0137 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 0.0111 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 0.00952 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 0.0206 billion.

There are presently 142.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 0.15.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 10,106,460,000
Current Cash 1,021,798,000
Current Liabilities 7,245,591,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,839,071,000
Change in NCWC 454,644,000
EBIT 908,734,000
Tax Provision 192,019,000
Depreciation and Amortization 151,942,000
Capital Expenditure -151,669,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,176,271,263
Current Assets 9,656,468,000
Current Cash 1,078,205,000
Current Liabilities 7,193,836,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,384,427,000
Change in NCWC 442,596,000
EBIT 826,854,000
Tax Provision 169,213,000
Depreciation and Amortization 165,185,000
Capital Expenditure -120,181,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,143,667,712
Current Assets 10,778,902,000
Current Cash 666,161,000
Current Liabilities 9,170,910,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 941,831,000
Change in NCWC -313,885,000
EBIT 139,688,000
Tax Provision -17,028,000
Depreciation and Amortization 185,715,000
Capital Expenditure -131,050,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -119,532,000
Current Assets 9,304,667,000
Current Cash 470,649,000
Current Liabilities 7,578,302,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,255,716,000
Change in NCWC 60,965,000
EBIT 587,961,000
Tax Provision 133,780,000
Depreciation and Amortization 232,537,000
Capital Expenditure -181,440,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 558,911,938
Current Assets 9,491,949,000
Current Cash 554,555,000
Current Liabilities 7,742,643,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,194,751,000
Change in NCWC -207,762,000
EBIT 806,924,000
Tax Provision 155,178,000
Depreciation and Amortization 264,863,000
Capital Expenditure -213,516,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 468,144,356
Current Assets 8,744,166,000
Current Cash 338,186,000
Current Liabilities 7,003,467,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,402,513,000
Change in NCWC 8,254,000
EBIT 891,263,000
Tax Provision 342,080,000
Depreciation and Amortization 222,188,000
Capital Expenditure -206,294,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 562,471,103
Current Assets 8,613,049,000
Current Cash 430,559,000
Current Liabilities 6,788,231,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,394,259,000
Change in NCWC -106,799,000
EBIT 1,048,936,000
Tax Provision 331,747,000
Depreciation and Amortization 209,555,000
Capital Expenditure -256,263,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 555,573,904
Current Assets 8,797,725,000
Current Cash 445,635,000
Current Liabilities 6,851,032,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,501,058,000
Change in NCWC -181,249,000
EBIT 1,155,695,000
Tax Provision 397,956,000
Depreciation and Amortization 198,074,000
Capital Expenditure -259,974,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 512,675,929
Current Assets 8,464,341,000
Current Cash 631,220,000
Current Liabilities 6,150,814,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,682,307,000
Change in NCWC -91,153,000
EBIT 1,280,983,000
Tax Provision 438,709,000
Depreciation and Amortization 179,300,000
Capital Expenditure -232,319,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 698,900,914
Current Assets 8,214,680,000
Current Cash 817,921,000
Current Liabilities 5,926,299,000
Current Debt 303,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,773,460,000
Change in NCWC 117,693,000
EBIT 1,151,571,000
Tax Provision 380,312,000
Depreciation and Amortization 167,072,000
Capital Expenditure -208,321,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 834,984,124
Current Assets 8,089,743,000
Current Cash 863,350,000
Current Liabilities 5,570,626,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,655,767,000
Change in NCWC 2,695,334,000
EBIT 1,028,651,000
Tax Provision 337,587,000
Depreciation and Amortization 168,978,000
Capital Expenditure -189,002,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,342,801,487

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.