HOG Intrinsic Value

HOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc. – Motorcycle, Bicycle, and Parts Manufacturing

harley-davidson fulfills dreams of personal freedom for people around the world. this has been our bold and unique purpose since 1903. we give people the means to express themselves; the means to liberate themselves from whatever constrains them. to do this, we must be the best at helping customers achieve personal freedom. their journey begins when they feel a deep emotional connection to our exceptional and distinct products. our retail experience takes them a step further, connecting them to the brand in their own highly personal and customized way. we can build the motorcycle the customer wants, when they want it, through flexible manufacturing. fulfilling dreams of personal freedom requires us to work as one company, one team, moving in one direction. we are customer led in all we do, and we believe and invest in our people and our communities. when we live our purpose, customers experience a lasting bond of freedom with one another and our dealers and h-d will continue to grow. f

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$0.15
Latest Price	$32.41
Relative Value	22182% overvalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -44.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 3.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -44.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	0.00478	0.00462
2024	0.00266	0.00248
2025	0.00148	0.00133
2026	0.000823	0.000714
2027	0.000458	0.000383

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 0.0137 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 0.0111 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 0.00952 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 0.0206 billion.

There are presently 142.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 0.15.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	10,106,460,000
Current Cash	1,021,798,000
Current Liabilities	7,245,591,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,839,071,000
Change in NCWC	454,644,000
EBIT	908,734,000
Tax Provision	192,019,000
Depreciation and Amortization	151,942,000
Capital Expenditure	-151,669,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,176,271,263

Current Assets	9,656,468,000
Current Cash	1,078,205,000
Current Liabilities	7,193,836,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,384,427,000
Change in NCWC	442,596,000
EBIT	826,854,000
Tax Provision	169,213,000
Depreciation and Amortization	165,185,000
Capital Expenditure	-120,181,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,143,667,712

Current Assets	10,778,902,000
Current Cash	666,161,000
Current Liabilities	9,170,910,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	941,831,000
Change in NCWC	-313,885,000
EBIT	139,688,000
Tax Provision	-17,028,000
Depreciation and Amortization	185,715,000
Capital Expenditure	-131,050,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-119,532,000

Current Assets	9,304,667,000
Current Cash	470,649,000
Current Liabilities	7,578,302,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,255,716,000
Change in NCWC	60,965,000
EBIT	587,961,000
Tax Provision	133,780,000
Depreciation and Amortization	232,537,000
Capital Expenditure	-181,440,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	558,911,938

Current Assets	9,491,949,000
Current Cash	554,555,000
Current Liabilities	7,742,643,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,194,751,000
Change in NCWC	-207,762,000
EBIT	806,924,000
Tax Provision	155,178,000
Depreciation and Amortization	264,863,000
Capital Expenditure	-213,516,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	468,144,356

Current Assets	8,744,166,000
Current Cash	338,186,000
Current Liabilities	7,003,467,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,402,513,000
Change in NCWC	8,254,000
EBIT	891,263,000
Tax Provision	342,080,000
Depreciation and Amortization	222,188,000
Capital Expenditure	-206,294,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	562,471,103

Current Assets	8,613,049,000
Current Cash	430,559,000
Current Liabilities	6,788,231,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,394,259,000
Change in NCWC	-106,799,000
EBIT	1,048,936,000
Tax Provision	331,747,000
Depreciation and Amortization	209,555,000
Capital Expenditure	-256,263,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	555,573,904

Current Assets	8,797,725,000
Current Cash	445,635,000
Current Liabilities	6,851,032,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,501,058,000
Change in NCWC	-181,249,000
EBIT	1,155,695,000
Tax Provision	397,956,000
Depreciation and Amortization	198,074,000
Capital Expenditure	-259,974,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	512,675,929

Current Assets	8,464,341,000
Current Cash	631,220,000
Current Liabilities	6,150,814,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,682,307,000
Change in NCWC	-91,153,000
EBIT	1,280,983,000
Tax Provision	438,709,000
Depreciation and Amortization	179,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-232,319,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	698,900,914

Current Assets	8,214,680,000
Current Cash	817,921,000
Current Liabilities	5,926,299,000
Current Debt	303,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,773,460,000
Change in NCWC	117,693,000
EBIT	1,151,571,000
Tax Provision	380,312,000
Depreciation and Amortization	167,072,000
Capital Expenditure	-208,321,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	834,984,124

Current Assets	8,089,743,000
Current Cash	863,350,000
Current Liabilities	5,570,626,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,655,767,000
Change in NCWC	2,695,334,000
EBIT	1,028,651,000
Tax Provision	337,587,000
Depreciation and Amortization	168,978,000
Capital Expenditure	-189,002,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,342,801,487

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