DCF Tool

HSY

Hershey Company – Chocolate and Confectionery Manufacturing from Cacao Beans
The Hershey Company is headquartered in Hershey, Pa., and is an industry-leading snacks company known for bringing goodness to the world through its iconic brands, remarkable people and enduring commitment to help children succeed. Hershey has approximately 16,000 employees around the world who work every day to deliver delicious, quality products. The company has more than 80 brands around the world that drive $8 billionin annual revenues, including such iconic brand names as Hershey's®, Reese's®, Kit Kat®, Jolly Rancher®, Ice Breakers®, SkinnyPop®, and Pirate's Booty®. For more than 125 years, Hershey has been committed to operating fairly, ethically and sustainably. Hershey founder, Milton Hershey, created the Milton Hershey School in 1909 and since then the company has focused on helping children succeed.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $488.39
Latest Price $206.98
Relative Value 58% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 9.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 2.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 9.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 1.71 1.66
2023 1.86 1.76
2024 2.04 1.88
2025 2.22 1.99
2026 2.43 2.12
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 72.9 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 61.9 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 9.41 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 71.3 billion.

There are presently 146.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 488.39.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,246,206,000
Current Cash 329,266,000
Current Liabilities 2,493,313,000
Current Debt 942,267,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 365,894,000
Change in NCWC -89,149,000
EBIT 2,047,247,000
Tax Provision 314,405,000
Depreciation and Amortization 315,002,000
Capital Expenditure -495,877,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,419,079,166
Current Assets 2,977,905,000
Current Cash 1,143,987,000
Current Liabilities 1,891,745,000
Current Debt 512,870,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 455,043,000
Change in NCWC 104,324,000
EBIT 1,810,344,000
Tax Provision 219,584,000
Depreciation and Amortization 294,907,000
Capital Expenditure -441,626,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,502,047,077
Current Assets 2,117,102,000
Current Cash 493,262,000
Current Liabilities 2,008,793,000
Current Debt 735,672,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 350,719,000
Change in NCWC -85,214,000
EBIT 1,716,549,000
Tax Provision 234,032,000
Depreciation and Amortization 291,544,000
Capital Expenditure -318,192,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,313,745,480
Current Assets 2,239,181,000
Current Cash 587,998,000
Current Liabilities 2,418,566,000
Current Debt 1,203,316,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 435,933,000
Change in NCWC 31,288,000
EBIT 1,700,496,000
Tax Provision 239,010,000
Depreciation and Amortization 295,144,000
Capital Expenditure -328,601,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,410,087,307
Current Assets 2,001,910,000
Current Cash 380,179,000
Current Liabilities 2,076,543,000
Current Debt 859,457,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 404,645,000
Change in NCWC 161,563,000
EBIT 1,531,116,000
Tax Provision 354,131,000
Depreciation and Amortization 261,853,000
Capital Expenditure -257,675,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,208,668,234
Current Assets 1,816,778,000
Current Cash 296,967,000
Current Liabilities 1,909,443,000
Current Debt 632,714,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 243,082,000
Change in NCWC 95,489,000
EBIT 1,242,513,000
Tax Provision 379,437,000
Depreciation and Amortization 301,837,000
Capital Expenditure -269,476,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 941,564,862
Current Assets 1,848,598,000
Current Cash 346,529,000
Current Liabilities 2,217,912,000
Current Debt 863,436,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 147,593,000
Change in NCWC -327,323,000
EBIT 1,413,367,000
Tax Provision 388,896,000
Depreciation and Amortization 244,928,000
Capital Expenditure -356,810,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 364,687,474
Current Assets 2,247,047,000
Current Cash 471,985,000
Current Liabilities 1,935,647,000
Current Debt 635,501,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 474,916,000
Change in NCWC 347,237,000
EBIT 1,435,196,000
Tax Provision 459,131,000
Depreciation and Amortization 211,532,000
Capital Expenditure -370,789,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,118,642,095
Current Assets 2,487,334,000
Current Cash 1,118,508,000
Current Liabilities 1,408,022,000
Current Debt 166,875,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 127,679,000
Change in NCWC -162,322,000
EBIT 1,358,340,000
Tax Provision 430,849,000
Depreciation and Amortization 201,033,000
Capital Expenditure -350,911,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 578,441,970
Current Assets 2,113,485,000
Current Cash 728,272,000
Current Liabilities 1,471,110,000
Current Debt 375,898,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 290,001,000
Change in NCWC -28,769,000
EBIT 1,156,086,000
Tax Provision 354,648,000
Depreciation and Amortization 210,037,000
Capital Expenditure -277,966,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 655,673,874

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