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K

driven by the legacy of our innovative founder, w.k. kellogg, the kellogg company is the world’s leading producer of cereal, and a leader in cookies, crackers, and savory snacks production. every day, our well-loved brands, delight families in more than 180 countries. with annual sales of more than $14 billion, our brands include cheez-it®, coco pops®, corn flakes®, eggo®, frosted flakes®, keebler®, kellogg’s®, mini-wheats®, pop-tarts®, pringles®, rice krispies®, special k®, and many more.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $90.51
Latest Price $55.42
Relative Value 39% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 0.9%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 0.9%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 1.12 1.07
2025 1.13 1.03
2026 1.14 0.984
2027 1.15 0.944
2028 1.16 0.906
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 34.9 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 25.9 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 4.93 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 30.8 billion.

There are presently 340.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 90.51.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 3,330,000,000
Current Cash 274,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,060,000,000
Current Debt 784,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,220,000,000
Change in NCWC -5,000,000
EBIT 1,511,000,000
Tax Provision 258,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 419,000,000
Capital Expenditure -677,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 875,305,927
Current Assets 4,186,000,000
Current Cash 299,000,000
Current Liabilities 6,349,000,000
Current Debt 1,247,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,215,000,000
Change in NCWC 143,000,000
EBIT 1,644,000,000
Tax Provision 244,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 478,000,000
Capital Expenditure -488,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,444,383,084
Current Assets 3,394,000,000
Current Cash 286,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,315,000,000
Current Debt 849,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,358,000,000
Change in NCWC 104,000,000
EBIT 1,755,000,000
Tax Provision 474,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 467,000,000
Capital Expenditure -553,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,350,516,505
Current Assets 3,482,000,000
Current Cash 435,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,238,000,000
Current Debt 729,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,462,000,000
Change in NCWC -445,000,000
EBIT 1,747,000,000
Tax Provision 323,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 479,000,000
Capital Expenditure -505,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 920,435,412
Current Assets 3,431,000,000
Current Cash 397,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,778,000,000
Current Debt 727,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,017,000,000
Change in NCWC -10,000,000
EBIT 1,394,000,000
Tax Provision 321,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 484,000,000
Capital Expenditure -586,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 937,258,859
Current Assets 3,157,000,000
Current Cash 321,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,529,000,000
Current Debt 686,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,007,000,000
Change in NCWC -62,000,000
EBIT 1,902,000,000
Tax Provision 181,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 516,000,000
Capital Expenditure -578,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,552,254,426
Current Assets 3,036,000,000
Current Cash 281,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,479,000,000
Current Debt 779,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -945,000,000
Change in NCWC -200,000,000
EBIT 1,953,000,000
Tax Provision 412,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 481,000,000
Capital Expenditure -501,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,254,334,919
Current Assets 2,940,000,000
Current Cash 280,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,474,000,000
Current Debt 1,069,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -745,000,000
Change in NCWC -461,000,000
EBIT 1,396,000,000
Tax Provision 233,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 517,000,000
Capital Expenditure -507,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 594,495,689
Current Assets 3,236,000,000
Current Cash 251,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,739,000,000
Current Debt 2,470,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -284,000,000
Change in NCWC -252,000,000
EBIT 1,091,000,000
Tax Provision 159,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 534,000,000
Capital Expenditure -553,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 595,589,909
Current Assets 3,340,000,000
Current Cash 443,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,364,000,000
Current Debt 1,435,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -32,000,000
Change in NCWC -219,000,000
EBIT 1,018,000,000
Tax Provision 186,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 503,000,000
Capital Expenditure -582,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 488,805,860
Current Assets 3,267,000,000
Current Cash 273,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,835,000,000
Current Debt 1,028,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 187,000,000
Change in NCWC -209,000,000
EBIT 2,831,000,000
Tax Provision 792,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 532,000,000
Capital Expenditure -637,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,654,633,846
Current Assets 3,380,000,000
Current Cash 281,000,000
Current Liabilities 4,523,000,000
Current Debt 1,820,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 396,000,000
Change in NCWC 147,000,000
EBIT 1,561,000,000
Tax Provision 363,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 448,000,000
Capital Expenditure -533,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,195,021,903

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