DCF Tool

KDP

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc – Soft Drink Manufacturing
keurig dr pepper (kdp) is a leading beverage company in north america, with annual revenue in excess of $11 billion and nearly 26,000 employees. kdp holds leadership positions in soft drinks, specialty coffee and tea, water, juice and juice drinks and mixers, and markets the #1 single serve coffee brewing system in the u.s. and canada. the company’s portfolio of more than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands is designed to satisfy virtually any consumer need, any time, and includes keurig®, dr pepper®, green mountain coffee roasters®, canada dry®, snapple®, bai®, mott's®, core® and the original donut shop®. through its powerful sales and distribution network, kdp can deliver its portfolio of hot and cold beverages to nearly every point of purchase for consumers. the company is committed to sourcing, producing and distributing its beverages responsibly through its drink well. do good. corporate responsibility platform, including efforts around circular packaging, efficient natural re
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $63.46
Latest Price $31.67
Relative Value 50% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 12.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 12.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 2.59 2.45
2024 2.93 2.6
2025 3.3 2.77
2026 3.72 2.95
2027 4.2 3.13
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 106 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 74.8 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 13.9 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 88.7 billion.

There are presently 1.4 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 63.46.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 3,804,000,000
Current Cash 535,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,076,000,000
Current Debt 990,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -3,817,000,000
Change in NCWC -205,000,000
EBIT 2,783,000,000
Tax Provision 284,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 709,000,000
Capital Expenditure -379,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,448,214,077
Current Assets 3,057,000,000
Current Cash 567,000,000
Current Liabilities 6,485,000,000
Current Debt 383,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -3,612,000,000
Change in NCWC -455,000,000
EBIT 2,894,000,000
Tax Provision 653,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 708,000,000
Capital Expenditure -455,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,016,595,425
Current Assets 2,388,000,000
Current Cash 240,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,694,000,000
Current Debt 2,389,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -3,157,000,000
Change in NCWC -515,000,000
EBIT 2,547,000,000
Tax Provision 428,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 653,000,000
Capital Expenditure -517,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,546,142,612
Current Assets 2,273,000,000
Current Cash 75,000,000
Current Liabilities 6,474,000,000
Current Debt 1,634,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,642,000,000
Change in NCWC -500,000,000
EBIT 2,378,000,000
Tax Provision 440,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 698,000,000
Capital Expenditure -330,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,628,337,662
Current Assets 2,159,000,000
Current Cash 83,000,000
Current Liabilities 5,702,000,000
Current Debt 1,484,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,142,000,000
Change in NCWC -2,039,000,000
EBIT 1,247,000,000
Tax Provision 202,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 462,000,000
Capital Expenditure -180,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -828,450,063
Current Assets 1,117,000,000
Current Cash 61,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,238,000,000
Current Debt 79,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -103,000,000
Change in NCWC -11,000,000
EBIT 1,335,000,000
Tax Provision 95,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 229,000,000
Capital Expenditure -208,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,236,695,132
Current Assets 2,736,000,000
Current Cash 1,787,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,051,000,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -92,000,000
Change in NCWC 78,000,000
EBIT 1,428,000,000
Tax Provision 434,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 224,000,000
Capital Expenditure -182,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,064,196,721
Current Assets 1,817,000,000
Current Cash 911,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,583,000,000
Current Debt 507,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -170,000,000
Change in NCWC -109,000,000
EBIT 1,305,000,000
Tax Provision 420,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 227,000,000
Capital Expenditure -180,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 780,077,702
Current Assets 1,211,000,000
Current Cash 237,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,038,000,000
Current Debt 3,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -61,000,000
Change in NCWC -63,000,000
EBIT 1,182,000,000
Tax Provision 371,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 235,000,000
Capital Expenditure -171,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 774,692,737
Current Assets 1,119,000,000
Current Cash 153,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,030,000,000
Current Debt 66,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,000,000
Change in NCWC 15,000,000
EBIT 1,056,000,000
Tax Provision -81,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 234,000,000
Capital Expenditure -184,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,121,000,000
Current Assets 1,335,000,000
Current Cash 366,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,232,000,000
Current Debt 250,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -13,000,000
Change in NCWC 394,000,000
EBIT 1,092,000,000
Tax Provision 349,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 240,000,000
Capital Expenditure -200,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,136,319,018

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