|Relative Value||30% overvalued|
An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -10.0%.
The calculated WACC is 7.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.
Assuming a growth rate of -10.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.
The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.
|Year||Future flow (million)||Present value (million)|
Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 1430 million. This corresponds to a present value of 914 million.
The total present value of the projected cash flows is 405 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1320 million.
There are presently 81.5 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 16.19.
The following data was to determine the past cash flows.
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||474,659,000|
|Change in NCWC||52,928,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||131,678,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||244,540,339|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||421,731,000|
|Change in NCWC||-14,685,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||126,488,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||103,059,683|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||436,416,000|
|Change in NCWC||-110,827,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||119,860,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||-114,901,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||547,243,000|
|Change in NCWC||43,561,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||112,052,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||216,391,943|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||503,682,000|
|Change in NCWC||40,963,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||108,680,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||216,825,046|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||462,719,000|
|Change in NCWC||-25,663,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||107,656,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||76,957,775|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||488,382,000|
|Change in NCWC||-197,628,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||117,466,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||-90,529,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||686,010,000|
|Change in NCWC||-178,618,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||131,664,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||76,519,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||864,628,000|
|Change in NCWC||165,745,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||130,222,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||377,814,482|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||698,883,000|
|Change in NCWC||35,872,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||113,104,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||296,173,222|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||663,011,000|
|Change in NCWC||110,549,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||104,073,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||433,493,558|
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.