DCF Tool

LLY

Lilly(Eli) & Co – Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing
Eli Lilly and Company is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, with offices in 18 countries. Its products are sold in approximately 125 countries. The company was founded in 1876 by, and named after, Colonel Eli Lilly, a pharmaceutical chemist and veteran of the American Civil War.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $257.75
Latest Price $792.63
Relative Value 208% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 9.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 9.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 8.75 8.22
2025 9.61 8.48
2026 10.6 8.75
2027 11.6 9.03
2028 12.7 9.31
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 292 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 201 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 43.8 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 245 billion.

There are presently 950.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 257.75.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 25,727,000,000
Current Cash 2,927,700,000
Current Liabilities 27,293,200,000
Current Debt 6,904,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,410,600,000
Change in NCWC 2,225,000,000
EBIT 10,325,400,000
Tax Provision 1,314,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,527,300,000
Capital Expenditure -3,447,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,559,853,046
Current Assets 18,034,500,000
Current Cash 2,211,800,000
Current Liabilities 17,138,200,000
Current Debt 1,501,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 185,600,000
Change in NCWC -843,800,000
EBIT 8,280,400,000
Tax Provision 561,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,522,500,000
Capital Expenditure -1,854,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,421,579,407
Current Assets 18,452,400,000
Current Cash 3,908,600,000
Current Liabilities 15,052,700,000
Current Debt 1,538,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,029,400,000
Change in NCWC -278,500,000
EBIT 7,548,100,000
Tax Provision 573,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,547,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,309,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,803,785,382
Current Assets 17,462,100,000
Current Cash 3,681,300,000
Current Liabilities 12,481,600,000
Current Debt 8,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,307,900,000
Change in NCWC 312,700,000
EBIT 6,849,600,000
Tax Provision 1,036,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,323,900,000
Capital Expenditure -1,387,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,116,605,160
Current Assets 13,709,600,000
Current Cash 2,438,500,000
Current Liabilities 11,775,200,000
Current Debt 1,499,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 995,200,000
Change in NCWC -711,100,000
EBIT 5,789,500,000
Tax Provision 628,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,232,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,033,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,586,656,581
Current Assets 20,549,600,000
Current Cash 8,086,400,000
Current Liabilities 11,888,100,000
Current Debt 1,131,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,706,300,000
Change in NCWC 1,367,600,000
EBIT 6,186,800,000
Tax Provision 563,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,609,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,210,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,033,997,365
Current Assets 19,202,100,000
Current Cash 8,034,100,000
Current Liabilities 14,535,900,000
Current Debt 3,706,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 338,700,000
Change in NCWC 325,100,000
EBIT 4,931,200,000
Tax Provision 2,401,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,567,300,000
Capital Expenditure -1,076,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,345,300,000
Current Assets 15,101,400,000
Current Cash 6,038,600,000
Current Liabilities 10,986,600,000
Current Debt 1,937,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 13,600,000
Change in NCWC 115,300,000
EBIT 3,871,300,000
Tax Provision 636,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,496,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,037,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,715,999,845
Current Assets 12,573,600,000
Current Cash 4,451,800,000
Current Liabilities 8,229,600,000
Current Debt 6,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -101,700,000
Change in NCWC 1,064,300,000
EBIT 3,592,100,000
Tax Provision 381,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,427,700,000
Capital Expenditure -1,066,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,526,593,419
Current Assets 12,179,800,000
Current Cash 4,827,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,207,500,000
Current Debt 2,688,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,166,000,000
Change in NCWC -969,400,000
EBIT 3,328,700,000
Tax Provision 609,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,379,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,162,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,899,153,901
Current Assets 13,104,700,000
Current Cash 5,397,300,000
Current Liabilities 8,916,600,000
Current Debt 1,012,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -196,600,000
Change in NCWC 826,600,000
EBIT 5,548,100,000
Tax Provision 1,204,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,445,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,012,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,673,483,403
Current Assets 13,038,700,000
Current Cash 5,684,300,000
Current Liabilities 8,389,500,000
Current Debt 11,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,023,200,000
Change in NCWC -965,700,000
EBIT 5,015,300,000
Tax Provision 1,319,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,462,200,000
Capital Expenditure -1,044,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,243,867,541

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