DCF Tool

LLY

Lilly(Eli) & Co – Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing
Lilly is a global health care leader that unites caring with discovery to create medicines that make life better for people around the world. It was founded more than a century ago by a man committed to creating high-quality medicines that meet real needs, and today it remains true to that mission in all its work. Across the globe, Lilly employees work to discover and bring life-changing medicines to those who need them, improve the understanding and management of disease, and give back to communities through philanthropy and volunteerism.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $195.91
Latest Price $323.35
Relative Value 65% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 9.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 9.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 7.19 6.74
2023 7.88 6.91
2024 8.62 7.09
2025 9.44 7.28
2026 10.3 7.46
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 223 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 151 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 35.5 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 186 billion.

There are presently 950.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 195.91.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 18,452,400,000
Current Cash 3,908,600,000
Current Liabilities 15,052,700,000
Current Debt 1,538,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,029,400,000
Change in NCWC -278,500,000
EBIT 7,548,100,000
Tax Provision 573,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,547,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,309,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,803,785,382
Current Assets 17,462,100,000
Current Cash 3,681,300,000
Current Liabilities 12,481,600,000
Current Debt 8,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,307,900,000
Change in NCWC 312,700,000
EBIT 6,849,600,000
Tax Provision 1,036,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,323,900,000
Capital Expenditure -1,387,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,116,605,160
Current Assets 13,709,600,000
Current Cash 2,438,500,000
Current Liabilities 11,775,200,000
Current Debt 1,499,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 995,200,000
Change in NCWC -711,100,000
EBIT 5,789,500,000
Tax Provision 628,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,232,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,033,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,586,656,581
Current Assets 20,549,600,000
Current Cash 8,086,400,000
Current Liabilities 11,888,100,000
Current Debt 1,131,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,706,300,000
Change in NCWC 1,367,600,000
EBIT 6,186,800,000
Tax Provision 563,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,609,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,210,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,033,997,365
Current Assets 19,202,100,000
Current Cash 8,034,100,000
Current Liabilities 14,535,900,000
Current Debt 3,706,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 338,700,000
Change in NCWC 325,100,000
EBIT 4,931,200,000
Tax Provision 2,401,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,567,300,000
Capital Expenditure -1,076,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,345,300,000
Current Assets 15,101,400,000
Current Cash 6,038,600,000
Current Liabilities 10,986,600,000
Current Debt 1,937,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 13,600,000
Change in NCWC 115,300,000
EBIT 3,871,300,000
Tax Provision 636,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,496,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,037,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,715,999,845
Current Assets 12,573,600,000
Current Cash 4,451,800,000
Current Liabilities 8,229,600,000
Current Debt 6,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -101,700,000
Change in NCWC 1,064,300,000
EBIT 3,592,100,000
Tax Provision 381,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,427,700,000
Capital Expenditure -1,066,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,526,593,419
Current Assets 12,179,800,000
Current Cash 4,827,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,207,500,000
Current Debt 2,688,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,166,000,000
Change in NCWC -969,400,000
EBIT 3,328,700,000
Tax Provision 609,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,379,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,162,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,899,153,901
Current Assets 13,104,700,000
Current Cash 5,397,300,000
Current Liabilities 8,916,600,000
Current Debt 1,012,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -196,600,000
Change in NCWC 826,600,000
EBIT 5,548,100,000
Tax Provision 1,204,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,445,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,012,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,673,483,403
Current Assets 13,038,700,000
Current Cash 5,684,300,000
Current Liabilities 8,389,500,000
Current Debt 11,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,023,200,000
Change in NCWC -965,700,000
EBIT 5,015,300,000
Tax Provision 1,319,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,462,200,000
Capital Expenditure -1,044,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,243,867,541

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