DCF Tool

LPX

Louisiana-Pacific Corp. – Reconstituted Wood Product Manufacturing
As a leader in high-performance building solutions, LP manufactures engineered wood building products that meet the demands of builders worldwide. Its extensive offerings include innovative and dependable building products and accessories, such as ® SmartSide® Trim & Siding, LP Structural Solutions portfolio (LP WeatherLogic® Air & Water Barrier, LP Legacy® Premium Sub-Flooring, LP® TechShield® Radiant Barrier, LP® FlameBlock® Fire-Rated Sheathing and more), oriented strand board (OSB), LP® TopNotch® Sub-Flooring, LP, LP® Outdoor Building Solutions®, and LP Elements® Performance Fencing. In addition to product solutions, LP provides industry-leading service and warranties. Since its founding in 1972, LP has been Building a Better World™ by helping customers construct beautiful, durable homes. Headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, LP operates 25 plants across the U.S., Canada, Chile and Brazil.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $237.80
Latest Price $59.16
Relative Value 75% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 20.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 9.9%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 20.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.815 0.742
2024 0.981 0.813
2025 1.18 0.891
2026 1.42 0.977
2027 1.71 1.07
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 22.2 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 12.6 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 4.49 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 17.1 billion.

There are presently 72.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 237.8.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 852,000,000
Current Cash 369,000,000
Current Liabilities 336,000,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 147,000,000
Change in NCWC -35,000,000
EBIT 1,239,000,000
Tax Provision 274,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 132,000,000
Capital Expenditure -414,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 629,087,144
Current Assets 891,000,000
Current Cash 358,000,000
Current Liabilities 351,000,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 182,000,000
Change in NCWC 10,000,000
EBIT 1,834,000,000
Tax Provision 426,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 119,000,000
Capital Expenditure -254,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,274,712,062
Current Assets 993,000,000
Current Cash 535,000,000
Current Liabilities 286,000,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 172,000,000
Change in NCWC -22,000,000
EBIT 658,000,000
Tax Provision 125,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 111,000,000
Capital Expenditure -77,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 537,977,528
Current Assets 619,000,000
Current Cash 181,000,000
Current Liabilities 244,000,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 194,000,000
Change in NCWC 41,800,000
EBIT 73,000,000
Tax Provision -13,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 123,000,000
Capital Expenditure -163,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 74,800,000
Current Assets 1,287,200,000
Current Cash 878,400,000
Current Liabilities 261,600,000
Current Debt 5,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 152,200,000
Change in NCWC -34,400,000
EBIT 531,800,000
Tax Provision 122,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 120,000,000
Capital Expenditure -214,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 278,388,754
Current Assets 1,359,600,000
Current Cash 928,000,000
Current Liabilities 270,100,000
Current Debt 25,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 186,600,000
Change in NCWC 55,600,000
EBIT 530,200,000
Tax Provision 119,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 123,300,000
Capital Expenditure -148,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 436,731,242
Current Assets 1,016,500,000
Current Cash 659,300,000
Current Liabilities 228,800,000
Current Debt 2,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 131,000,000
Change in NCWC -62,500,000
EBIT 200,800,000
Tax Provision 19,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 112,800,000
Capital Expenditure -124,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 102,926,455
Current Assets 769,100,000
Current Cash 434,700,000
Current Liabilities 143,000,000
Current Debt 2,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 193,500,000
Change in NCWC -53,800,000
EBIT -54,500,000
Tax Provision -2,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 101,900,000
Capital Expenditure -113,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -120,200,000
Current Assets 950,300,000
Current Cash 532,700,000
Current Liabilities 172,700,000
Current Debt 2,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 247,300,000
Change in NCWC 33,800,000
EBIT -81,000,000
Tax Provision -27,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 100,700,000
Capital Expenditure -80,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -26,600,000
Current Assets 1,034,200,000
Current Cash 656,800,000
Current Liabilities 166,200,000
Current Debt 2,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 213,500,000
Change in NCWC -79,700,000
EBIT 199,100,000
Tax Provision 41,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 91,300,000
Capital Expenditure -75,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 97,649,153
Current Assets 995,600,000
Current Cash 560,900,000
Current Liabilities 239,300,000
Current Debt 97,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 293,200,000
Change in NCWC 102,700,000
EBIT 114,800,000
Tax Provision 7,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 73,900,000
Capital Expenditure -31,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 238,223,173

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