DCF Tool

MAT

Mattel, Inc. – Doll, Toy, and Game Manufacturing
Mattel is a leading global toy company and owner of one of the strongest catalogs of children's and family entertainment franchises in the world. Mattel creates innovative products and experiences that inspire, entertain and develop children through play. Mattel engages consumers through our portfolio of iconic brands, including Barbie®, Hot Wheels®, Fisher-Price®, American Girl®, Thomas & Friends®, UNO® and MEGA®, as well as other popular intellectual properties that Mattel owns or licenses in partnership with global entertainment companies. Its offerings include film and television content, gaming, music and live events. Mattel operates in 35 locations and our products are available in more than 150 countries in collaboration with the world's leading retail and ecommerce companies. Since its founding in 1945, Mattel is proud to be a trusted partner in empowering children to explore the wonder of childhood and reach their full potential.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1.53
Latest Price $18.94
Relative Value 1138% overvalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Ad
Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
%
%
%
New Ticker
Ad
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -18.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 9.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -18.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 0.0872 0.0795
2023 0.0715 0.0594
2024 0.0587 0.0444
2025 0.0481 0.0332
2026 0.0395 0.0248
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 0.522 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 0.299 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 0.241 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 0.541 billion.

There are presently 353.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1.53.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,874,529,000
Current Cash 731,362,000
Current Liabilities 1,598,253,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 544,914,000
Change in NCWC 178,615,000
EBIT 741,404,000
Tax Provision -420,381,000
Depreciation and Amortization 184,313,000
Capital Expenditure -151,353,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 952,979,000
Current Assets 2,482,890,000
Current Cash 762,181,000
Current Liabilities 1,355,379,000
Current Debt 969,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 366,299,000
Change in NCWC 25,260,000
EBIT 392,356,000
Tax Provision 68,649,000
Depreciation and Amortization 199,898,000
Capital Expenditure -121,599,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 357,983,512
Current Assets 2,247,974,000
Current Cash 630,028,000
Current Liabilities 1,276,907,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 341,039,000
Change in NCWC -155,826,000
EBIT 39,240,000
Tax Provision 55,224,000
Depreciation and Amortization 244,518,000
Capital Expenditure -116,352,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,580,000
Current Assets 2,347,200,000
Current Cash 594,481,000
Current Liabilities 1,260,030,000
Current Debt 4,176,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 496,865,000
Change in NCWC -161,699,000
EBIT -234,349,000
Tax Provision 116,196,000
Depreciation and Amortization 271,932,000
Capital Expenditure -152,414,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -276,530,000
Current Assets 3,111,588,000
Current Cash 1,079,221,000
Current Liabilities 1,623,803,000
Current Debt 250,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 658,564,000
Change in NCWC -98,564,000
EBIT -342,823,000
Tax Provision 548,849,000
Depreciation and Amortization 274,767,000
Capital Expenditure -297,159,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -463,779,000
Current Assets 2,940,064,000
Current Cash 869,531,000
Current Liabilities 1,505,573,000
Current Debt 192,168,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 757,128,000
Change in NCWC -218,263,000
EBIT 519,233,000
Tax Provision 91,720,000
Depreciation and Amortization 262,340,000
Capital Expenditure -262,193,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 184,887,639
Current Assets 3,196,863,000
Current Cash 892,814,000
Current Liabilities 1,645,572,000
Current Debt 316,914,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 975,391,000
Change in NCWC -149,961,000
EBIT 540,922,000
Tax Provision 94,499,000
Depreciation and Amortization 265,427,000
Capital Expenditure -254,181,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 292,021,754
Current Assets 3,185,951,000
Current Cash 971,650,000
Current Liabilities 1,088,949,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,125,352,000
Change in NCWC -170,263,000
EBIT 653,714,000
Tax Provision 88,036,000
Depreciation and Amortization 248,701,000
Capital Expenditure -260,457,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 373,638,456
Current Assets 3,377,993,000
Current Cash 1,039,216,000
Current Liabilities 1,047,440,000
Current Debt 4,278,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,295,615,000
Change in NCWC 380,689,000
EBIT 1,168,103,000
Tax Provision 195,184,000
Depreciation and Amortization 196,393,000
Capital Expenditure -252,054,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,285,698,366
Current Assets 3,556,805,000
Current Cash 1,335,711,000
Current Liabilities 1,716,012,000
Current Debt 409,844,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 914,926,000
Change in NCWC -178,758,000
EBIT 1,021,015,000
Tax Provision 168,581,000
Depreciation and Amortization 174,282,000
Capital Expenditure -219,548,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 614,858,160

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.