DCF Tool

MDC

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. – New Single-Family Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders)
building one dream at a time. from the beginning, our mission has been to help people attain the american dream. nearly 40 years and more than 180,000 single-family homes later, we haven’t lost sight of that vision. we’re committed to designing quality homes and strengthening the communities in which we build. what sets us apart? it's the personal approach we take to every aspect of the homebuying experience. after all, it isn’t just a house we’re building. it’s someone’s home. a place where memories are made and dreams are realized. our job is to create a unique experience for each and every customer. that’s what making it personal is all about. the richmond american homes companies’ parent corporation, m.d.c. holdings, inc., is listed on the new york stock exchange under the symbol “mdc.” m.d.c.’s subsidiaries also provide mortgage financing, insurance and title services, primarily for richmond american homebuyers, through homeamerican mortgage corporation, american home insura
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $409.04
Latest Price $46.20
Relative Value 89% undervalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Ad
Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
%
%
%
New Ticker
Ad
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 10.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 2.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 10.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.698 0.679
2024 0.772 0.731
2025 0.853 0.786
2026 0.943 0.846
2027 1.04 0.911
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 31.3 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 26.6 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 3.95 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 30.5 billion.

There are presently 74.7 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 409.04.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 5,193,616,000
Current Cash 1,139,787,000
Current Liabilities 762,338,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,301,491,000
Change in NCWC -169,030,000
EBIT 903,877,000
Tax Provision 197,715,000
Depreciation and Amortization 27,751,000
Capital Expenditure -29,075,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 498,333,027
Current Assets 4,804,521,000
Current Cash 485,839,000
Current Liabilities 858,161,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,470,521,000
Change in NCWC 820,995,000
EBIT 776,376,000
Tax Provision 178,037,000
Depreciation and Amortization 31,666,000
Capital Expenditure -29,693,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,415,461,124
Current Assets 3,728,284,000
Current Cash 411,362,000
Current Liabilities 677,396,000
Current Debt 10,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,649,526,000
Change in NCWC 409,221,000
EBIT 466,438,000
Tax Provision 89,930,000
Depreciation and Amortization 27,166,000
Capital Expenditure -26,777,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 784,363,477
Current Assets 3,185,110,000
Current Cash 424,186,000
Current Liabilities 535,619,000
Current Debt 15,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,240,305,000
Change in NCWC 209,877,000
EBIT 302,489,000
Tax Provision 66,677,000
Depreciation and Amortization 23,054,000
Capital Expenditure -24,714,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 444,575,552
Current Assets 2,867,262,000
Current Cash 414,724,000
Current Liabilities 437,110,000
Current Debt 15,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,030,428,000
Change in NCWC 281,592,000
EBIT 283,231,000
Tax Provision 53,074,000
Depreciation and Amortization 21,326,000
Capital Expenditure -27,166,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 502,011,333
Current Assets 2,642,835,000
Current Cash 522,591,000
Current Liabilities 386,408,000
Current Debt 15,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,748,836,000
Change in NCWC 79,796,000
EBIT 181,274,000
Tax Provision 87,897,000
Depreciation and Amortization 5,321,000
Capital Expenditure -2,539,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 194,495,354
Current Assets 2,339,770,000
Current Cash 318,857,000
Current Liabilities 366,873,000
Current Debt 15,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,669,040,000
Change in NCWC 6,091,000
EBIT 159,459,000
Tax Provision 48,570,000
Depreciation and Amortization 5,132,000
Capital Expenditure -4,468,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 115,187,035
Current Assets 2,203,761,000
Current Cash 236,729,000
Current Liabilities 319,083,000
Current Debt 15,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,662,949,000
Change in NCWC 88,755,000
EBIT 112,885,000
Tax Provision 35,633,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,069,000
Capital Expenditure -1,491,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 164,558,440
Current Assets 2,106,366,000
Current Cash 263,520,000
Current Liabilities 283,652,000
Current Debt 15,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,574,194,000
Change in NCWC 246,698,000
EBIT 103,869,000
Tax Provision 37,332,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,928,000
Capital Expenditure -3,242,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 312,659,941
Current Assets 2,331,731,000
Current Cash 717,655,000
Current Liabilities 286,580,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,327,496,000
Change in NCWC 423,084,000
EBIT 106,455,000
Tax Provision -184,560,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,864,000
Capital Expenditure -1,785,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 531,618,000
Current Assets 1,873,114,000
Current Cash 649,000,000
Current Liabilities 319,702,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 904,412,000
Change in NCWC 238,216,000
EBIT 39,402,000
Tax Provision -1,584,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,766,000
Capital Expenditure -1,268,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 281,116,000

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.