MED Intrinsic Value

MED

Medifast Inc – Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing

since 1980, medifast, inc.(nyse: med) has been a brand recommended by 20,000 doctors. developed by a physician, medifast is a clinically proven nutrition and weight loss company based in maryland. we change lives by producing results and helping those succeed. because everyone has different goals and ways of learning, we offer several support programs as you choose health with medifast. we believe that healthier people are happier people. everyone has the right to feel good about themselves. our vision is to create a world where it's easy to take control of your own well-being. we're on a mission to empower people with the right opportunities to enjoy the healthy life they deserve. we see it every day. the ear-to-ear grin. the “holding back the tears” pride. the glow of pure joy when someone reaches their weight-loss goals. their whole life gets better, and so does yours, because you helped them get there. if you’d like to spend every day helping to change people’s lives for the better

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$327.67
Latest Price	$76.62
Relative Value	77% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Millions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 25.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 9.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 25.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (million)	Present value (million)
2023	145	132
2024	182	151
2025	228	173
2026	287	197
2027	360	226

Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 4710 million. This corresponds to a present value of 2690 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 878 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 3570 million.

There are presently 10.9 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 327.67.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	222,784,000
Current Cash	87,691,000
Current Liabilities	140,894,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-5,801,000
Change in NCWC	-33,291,000
EBIT	184,806,000
Tax Provision	40,491,000
Depreciation and Amortization	10,980,000
Capital Expenditure	-16,681,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	105,158,668

Current Assets	306,866,000
Current Cash	109,544,000
Current Liabilities	169,832,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	27,490,000
Change in NCWC	79,001,000
EBIT	216,241,000
Tax Provision	52,098,000
Depreciation and Amortization	6,812,000
Capital Expenditure	-34,209,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	215,720,002

Current Assets	234,314,000
Current Cash	174,475,000
Current Liabilities	111,350,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-51,511,000
Change in NCWC	-33,596,000
EBIT	134,159,000
Tax Provision	31,406,000
Depreciation and Amortization	7,270,000
Capital Expenditure	-5,887,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	70,564,794

Current Assets	154,151,000
Current Cash	92,678,000
Current Liabilities	79,388,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-17,915,000
Change in NCWC	-2,077,000
EBIT	91,039,000
Tax Provision	14,447,000
Depreciation and Amortization	4,624,000
Capital Expenditure	-10,058,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	69,288,094

Current Assets	145,519,000
Current Cash	101,034,000
Current Liabilities	60,323,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-15,838,000
Change in NCWC	-5,062,000
EBIT	69,063,000
Tax Provision	14,759,000
Depreciation and Amortization	4,435,000
Capital Expenditure	-4,940,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	49,047,669

Current Assets	125,198,000
Current Cash	98,834,000
Current Liabilities	37,140,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-10,776,000
Change in NCWC	-10,804,000
EBIT	39,632,000
Tax Provision	12,605,000
Depreciation and Amortization	4,209,000
Capital Expenditure	-3,242,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	17,406,928

Current Assets	101,297,000
Current Cash	76,848,000
Current Liabilities	24,421,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	28,000
Change in NCWC	2,409,000
EBIT	26,859,000
Tax Provision	9,287,000
Depreciation and Amortization	5,405,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,876,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	22,600,055

Current Assets	88,073,000
Current Cash	67,109,000
Current Liabilities	23,564,000
Current Debt	219,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-2,381,000
Change in NCWC	-4,939,000
EBIT	28,684,000
Tax Provision	10,104,000
Depreciation and Amortization	7,115,000
Capital Expenditure	-2,819,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	18,273,107

Current Assets	81,914,000
Current Cash	52,644,000
Current Liabilities	26,944,000
Current Debt	232,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	2,558,000
Change in NCWC	5,285,000
EBIT	30,246,000
Tax Provision	10,664,000
Depreciation and Amortization	8,052,000
Capital Expenditure	-7,024,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	26,381,883

Current Assets	91,954,000
Current Cash	67,802,000
Current Liabilities	27,101,000
Current Debt	222,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-2,727,000
Change in NCWC	-3,087,000
EBIT	33,590,000
Tax Provision	10,218,000
Depreciation and Amortization	11,382,000
Capital Expenditure	-11,606,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	20,239,434

Current Assets	88,575,000
Current Cash	59,994,000
Current Liabilities	28,749,000
Current Debt	528,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	360,000
Change in NCWC	-10,996,000
EBIT	23,262,000
Tax Provision	8,582,000
Depreciation and Amortization	11,205,000
Capital Expenditure	-11,383,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	3,925,661

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