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MGP Ingredients, Inc. – Flour Milling
Founded in 1941, MGP is a leading supplier of premium distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starches. Distilled spirits include bourbon and rye whiskeys, gins and vodkas, which are expertly crafted through a combination of art and science and backed by a long history of experience. The company's proteins and starches are created in the same manner and provide a host of functional, nutritional and sensory benefits for a wide range of food products. MGP additionally is a top producer of high quality industrial alcohol for use in both food and non-food applications. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, where distilled alcohol products and food ingredients are produced. Premium spirits are also distilled and matured at the company's facility in Lawrenceburg, Indiana.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $822.49
Latest Price $100.85
Relative Value 88% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 47.3%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.6%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 47.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 0.226 0.212
2023 0.333 0.292
2024 0.49 0.404
2025 0.721 0.558
2026 1.06 0.77
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 23.3 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 15.9 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 2.24 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 18.1 billion.

There are presently 22.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 822.49.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 367,098,000
Current Cash 21,568,000
Current Liabilities 88,800,000
Current Debt 3,227,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 259,957,000
Change in NCWC 111,065,000
EBIT 108,427,000
Tax Provision 30,279,000
Depreciation and Amortization 19,092,000
Capital Expenditure -47,389,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 164,083,773
Current Assets 222,283,000
Current Cash 21,662,000
Current Liabilities 53,329,000
Current Debt 1,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 148,892,000
Change in NCWC 6,889,000
EBIT 54,241,000
Tax Provision 12,256,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,961,000
Capital Expenditure -19,701,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 41,751,881
Current Assets 184,206,000
Current Cash 3,309,000
Current Liabilities 39,295,000
Current Debt 401,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 142,003,000
Change in NCWC 29,482,000
EBIT 47,242,000
Tax Provision 7,144,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,572,000
Capital Expenditure -16,730,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 64,219,049
Current Assets 154,623,000
Current Cash 5,025,000
Current Liabilities 37,463,000
Current Debt 386,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 112,521,000
Change in NCWC 22,071,000
EBIT 50,148,000
Tax Provision 11,696,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,362,000
Capital Expenditure -31,046,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 40,560,091
Current Assets 134,742,000
Current Cash 3,084,000
Current Liabilities 41,580,000
Current Debt 372,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 90,450,000
Change in NCWC 13,754,000
EBIT 42,561,000
Tax Provision 10,935,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,308,000
Capital Expenditure -21,055,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 37,746,503
Current Assets 110,901,000
Current Cash 1,569,000
Current Liabilities 36,995,000
Current Debt 4,359,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 76,696,000
Change in NCWC 20,579,000
EBIT 46,011,000
Tax Provision 13,533,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,253,000
Capital Expenditure -17,922,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 45,996,388
Current Assets 91,180,000
Current Cash 747,000
Current Liabilities 37,661,000
Current Debt 3,345,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 56,117,000
Change in NCWC 7,648,000
EBIT 38,952,000
Tax Provision 12,227,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,382,000
Capital Expenditure -30,526,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 16,059,047
Current Assets 82,245,000
Current Cash 5,641,000
Current Liabilities 30,748,000
Current Debt 2,613,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 48,469,000
Change in NCWC 12,033,000
EBIT 18,467,000
Tax Provision 2,265,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,325,000
Capital Expenditure -6,953,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 34,259,519
Current Assets 71,886,000
Current Cash 2,857,000
Current Liabilities 34,150,000
Current Debt 1,557,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 36,436,000
Change in NCWC -13,567,000
EBIT -5,167,000
Tax Provision -714,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,009,000
Capital Expenditure -6,208,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -12,933,000
Current Assets 78,091,000
Current Cash 0
Current Liabilities 29,771,000
Current Debt 1,683,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 50,003,000
Change in NCWC 28,862,000
EBIT -1,814,000
Tax Provision 318,000
Depreciation and Amortization 11,568,000
Capital Expenditure -9,229,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 29,684,040

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