MOS Intrinsic Value

MOS

Mosaic Company – Phosphatic Fertilizer Manufacturing

with 75 million new people to feed each year and a growing worldwide middle class, the global food supply needs to keep pace. this imperative creates the opportunity for the mosaic company to deliver on its mission to help the world grow the food it needs. mosaic is a global leader in the crop nutrient industry — the only company with the ability to produce and deliver two vital crop nutrients, phosphate and potash, on a massive scale. mosaic engages in every phase of crop nutrition, from the mining of resources to the production of crop nutrients, feed and industrial products for customers around the globe. mosaic encourages an open dialogue on its social media outlets. in doing this, we ask that all users remain respectful and considerate. the following types of comments are not acceptable on our page: vulgar/profane language, personal attacks, spam/advertisements, and comments that are off topic.

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$1,517.65
Latest Price	$35.20
Relative Value	98% undervalued

Share results:

Thoughts on this result? Let us know.

Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 58.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 58.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	6.36	5.89
2024	10.1	8.64
2025	16.0	12.7
2026	25.3	18.6
2027	40.0	27.3

Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 683 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 431 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 73.1 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 504 billion.

There are presently 332.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1517.65.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	6,556,600,000
Current Cash	735,400,000
Current Liabilities	5,533,800,000
Current Debt	1,210,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,497,600,000
Change in NCWC	829,800,000
EBIT	4,981,300,000
Tax Provision	1,224,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization	933,900,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,247,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	4,237,266,892

Current Assets	5,325,300,000
Current Cash	769,500,000
Current Liabilities	4,787,400,000
Current Debt	899,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	667,800,000
Change in NCWC	362,800,000
EBIT	2,634,400,000
Tax Provision	597,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	812,900,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,288,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,816,232,204

Current Assets	3,521,200,000
Current Cash	574,000,000
Current Liabilities	3,146,500,000
Current Debt	504,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	305,000,000
Change in NCWC	-391,200,000
EBIT	319,100,000
Tax Provision	-578,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	847,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,170,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-395,100,000

Current Assets	3,718,200,000
Current Cash	519,100,000
Current Liabilities	2,591,700,000
Current Debt	88,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	696,200,000
Change in NCWC	-246,900,000
EBIT	307,800,000
Tax Provision	-224,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	882,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,272,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-328,600,000

Current Assets	4,237,000,000
Current Cash	847,700,000
Current Liabilities	2,483,700,000
Current Debt	37,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	943,100,000
Change in NCWC	161,600,000
EBIT	923,800,000
Tax Provision	77,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	883,900,000
Capital Expenditure	-954,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	884,589,798

Current Assets	4,616,500,000
Current Cash	2,153,500,000
Current Liabilities	2,031,100,000
Current Debt	349,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	781,500,000
Change in NCWC	-165,200,000
EBIT	482,400,000
Tax Provision	494,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization	665,500,000
Capital Expenditure	-820,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-332,300,000

Current Assets	3,057,700,000
Current Cash	673,100,000
Current Liabilities	1,476,800,000
Current Debt	38,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	946,700,000
Change in NCWC	58,100,000
EBIT	303,600,000
Tax Provision	-74,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization	711,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-843,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	229,800,000

Current Assets	4,144,700,000
Current Cash	1,276,300,000
Current Liabilities	2,048,300,000
Current Debt	68,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	888,600,000
Change in NCWC	-555,100,000
EBIT	1,276,400,000
Tax Provision	99,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	739,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,000,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	345,901,971

Current Assets	5,364,200,000
Current Cash	2,374,600,000
Current Liabilities	1,600,400,000
Current Debt	54,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,443,700,000
Change in NCWC	-44,400,000
EBIT	1,418,600,000
Tax Provision	184,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	750,900,000
Capital Expenditure	-929,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	980,367,196

Current Assets	6,880,500,000
Current Cash	3,697,100,000
Current Liabilities	1,764,900,000
Current Debt	69,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,488,100,000
Change in NCWC	592,700,000
EBIT	2,227,900,000
Tax Provision	341,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	604,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,588,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,496,848,342

Current Assets	6,581,100,000
Current Cash	3,811,000,000
Current Liabilities	1,917,700,000
Current Debt	43,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	895,400,000
Change in NCWC	-26,200,000
EBIT	2,624,400,000
Tax Provision	711,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization	508,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,639,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	760,392,566

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.