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Mosaic Company – Phosphatic Fertilizer Manufacturing
with 75 million new people to feed each year and a growing worldwide middle class, the global food supply needs to keep pace. this imperative creates the opportunity for the mosaic company to deliver on its mission to help the world grow the food it needs. mosaic is a global leader in the crop nutrient industry — the only company with the ability to produce and deliver two vital crop nutrients, phosphate and potash, on a massive scale. mosaic engages in every phase of crop nutrition, from the mining of resources to the production of crop nutrients, feed and industrial products for customers around the globe. mosaic encourages an open dialogue on its social media outlets. in doing this, we ask that all users remain respectful and considerate. the following types of comments are not acceptable on our page: vulgar/profane language, personal attacks, spam/advertisements, and comments that are off topic.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,517.65
Latest Price $35.20
Relative Value 98% undervalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 58.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 58.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 6.36 5.89
2024 10.1 8.64
2025 16.0 12.7
2026 25.3 18.6
2027 40.0 27.3
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 683 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 431 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 73.1 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 504 billion.

There are presently 332.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1517.65.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 6,556,600,000
Current Cash 735,400,000
Current Liabilities 5,533,800,000
Current Debt 1,210,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,497,600,000
Change in NCWC 829,800,000
EBIT 4,981,300,000
Tax Provision 1,224,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 933,900,000
Capital Expenditure -1,247,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,237,266,892
Current Assets 5,325,300,000
Current Cash 769,500,000
Current Liabilities 4,787,400,000
Current Debt 899,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 667,800,000
Change in NCWC 362,800,000
EBIT 2,634,400,000
Tax Provision 597,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 812,900,000
Capital Expenditure -1,288,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,816,232,204
Current Assets 3,521,200,000
Current Cash 574,000,000
Current Liabilities 3,146,500,000
Current Debt 504,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 305,000,000
Change in NCWC -391,200,000
EBIT 319,100,000
Tax Provision -578,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 847,600,000
Capital Expenditure -1,170,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -395,100,000
Current Assets 3,718,200,000
Current Cash 519,100,000
Current Liabilities 2,591,700,000
Current Debt 88,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 696,200,000
Change in NCWC -246,900,000
EBIT 307,800,000
Tax Provision -224,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 882,700,000
Capital Expenditure -1,272,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -328,600,000
Current Assets 4,237,000,000
Current Cash 847,700,000
Current Liabilities 2,483,700,000
Current Debt 37,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 943,100,000
Change in NCWC 161,600,000
EBIT 923,800,000
Tax Provision 77,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 883,900,000
Capital Expenditure -954,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 884,589,798
Current Assets 4,616,500,000
Current Cash 2,153,500,000
Current Liabilities 2,031,100,000
Current Debt 349,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 781,500,000
Change in NCWC -165,200,000
EBIT 482,400,000
Tax Provision 494,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization 665,500,000
Capital Expenditure -820,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -332,300,000
Current Assets 3,057,700,000
Current Cash 673,100,000
Current Liabilities 1,476,800,000
Current Debt 38,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 946,700,000
Change in NCWC 58,100,000
EBIT 303,600,000
Tax Provision -74,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 711,200,000
Capital Expenditure -843,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 229,800,000
Current Assets 4,144,700,000
Current Cash 1,276,300,000
Current Liabilities 2,048,300,000
Current Debt 68,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 888,600,000
Change in NCWC -555,100,000
EBIT 1,276,400,000
Tax Provision 99,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 739,800,000
Capital Expenditure -1,000,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 345,901,971
Current Assets 5,364,200,000
Current Cash 2,374,600,000
Current Liabilities 1,600,400,000
Current Debt 54,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,443,700,000
Change in NCWC -44,400,000
EBIT 1,418,600,000
Tax Provision 184,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 750,900,000
Capital Expenditure -929,100,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 980,367,196
Current Assets 6,880,500,000
Current Cash 3,697,100,000
Current Liabilities 1,764,900,000
Current Debt 69,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,488,100,000
Change in NCWC 592,700,000
EBIT 2,227,900,000
Tax Provision 341,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 604,800,000
Capital Expenditure -1,588,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,496,848,342
Current Assets 6,581,100,000
Current Cash 3,811,000,000
Current Liabilities 1,917,700,000
Current Debt 43,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 895,400,000
Change in NCWC -26,200,000
EBIT 2,624,400,000
Tax Provision 711,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization 508,100,000
Capital Expenditure -1,639,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 760,392,566

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