DCF Tool

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corp – Petroleum Refineries
headquartered in findlay, ohio, marathon petroleum corporation (mpc), together with its subsidiaries, including marathon petroleum company lp and speedway llc, is one of the largest petroleum product refiners, marketers and transporters in the united states. mpc is the nation’s fourth-largest refiner and the largest refiner in the midwest. mpc’s refining, marketing and transportation operations are concentrated primarily in the midwest, gulf coast and southeast regions of the u.s. mpc operations are strategically located to serve major markets. they include a seven-plant refining network, a comprehensive terminal and transportation system, and extensive wholesale and retail marketing operations. this includes both the marathon brand and mpc’s wholly-owned retail marketing subsidiary, speedway llc, the nation’s fourth-largest chain of company-owned and -operated retail gasoline and convenience stores.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $2,048.98
Latest Price $208.77
Relative Value 90% undervalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Ad
Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
%
%
%
New Ticker
Ad
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 20.7%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 20.7%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 15.8 14.9
2025 19.0 17.0
2026 23.0 19.4
2027 27.7 22.1
2028 33.4 25.2
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 897 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 640 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 98.6 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 738 billion.

There are presently 360.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 2048.98.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 32,131,000,000
Current Cash 10,224,000,000
Current Liabilities 20,150,000,000
Current Debt 1,954,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,711,000,000
Change in NCWC -807,000,000
EBIT 14,297,000,000
Tax Provision 2,817,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,307,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,890,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 12,027,977,267
Current Assets 35,242,000,000
Current Cash 11,770,000,000
Current Liabilities 20,020,000,000
Current Debt 1,066,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 4,518,000,000
Change in NCWC 2,188,000,000
EBIT 20,408,000,000
Tax Provision 4,491,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,215,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,420,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 18,913,383,702
Current Assets 30,496,000,000
Current Cash 10,839,000,000
Current Liabilities 17,898,000,000
Current Debt 571,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,330,000,000
Change in NCWC -12,733,000,000
EBIT 4,279,000,000
Tax Provision 264,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,364,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,464,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -6,955,013,844
Current Assets 28,287,000,000
Current Cash 415,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,663,000,000
Current Debt 2,854,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 15,063,000,000
Change in NCWC 11,856,000,000
EBIT -3,524,000,000
Tax Provision -2,430,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,375,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,787,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,920,000,000
Current Assets 20,170,000,000
Current Cash 1,527,000,000
Current Liabilities 16,147,000,000
Current Debt 711,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,207,000,000
Change in NCWC -457,000,000
EBIT 6,466,000,000
Tax Provision 1,074,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,638,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,374,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,668,822,591
Current Assets 18,023,000,000
Current Cash 1,687,000,000
Current Liabilities 13,216,000,000
Current Debt 544,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,664,000,000
Change in NCWC 3,128,000,000
EBIT 5,548,000,000
Tax Provision 962,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,490,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,578,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,419,616,462
Current Assets 13,401,000,000
Current Cash 3,011,000,000
Current Liabilities 10,478,000,000
Current Debt 624,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 536,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,860,000,000
EBIT 3,959,000,000
Tax Provision -460,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,114,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,732,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,481,000,000
Current Assets 10,401,000,000
Current Cash 887,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,146,000,000
Current Debt 28,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,396,000,000
Change in NCWC 368,000,000
EBIT 2,106,000,000
Tax Provision 609,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,001,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,892,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 879,073,545
Current Assets 9,471,000,000
Current Cash 1,127,000,000
Current Liabilities 6,345,000,000
Current Debt 29,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,028,000,000
Change in NCWC 735,000,000
EBIT 5,055,000,000
Tax Provision 1,506,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,646,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,998,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,697,526,748
Current Assets 11,339,000,000
Current Cash 1,494,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,579,000,000
Current Debt 27,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,293,000,000
Change in NCWC 649,000,000
EBIT 4,030,000,000
Tax Provision 1,280,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,326,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,480,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,179,915,254
Current Assets 12,737,000,000
Current Cash 2,292,000,000
Current Liabilities 9,824,000,000
Current Debt 23,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 644,000,000
Change in NCWC 659,000,000
EBIT 3,419,000,000
Tax Provision 1,113,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,220,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,206,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,919,681,146
Current Assets 13,029,000,000
Current Cash 4,860,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,203,000,000
Current Debt 19,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -15,000,000
Change in NCWC 639,000,000
EBIT 5,170,000,000
Tax Provision 1,845,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 995,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,369,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,613,951,890

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.