MSA Intrinsic Value

MSA

MSA Safety Inc – Commercial Photography

established in 1914, msa is the world's leading manufacturer of safety products designed to protect people throughout the world. many msa products, while simple to use and maintain, are sophisticated in design in that they typically integrate any combination of electronics, mechanical systems and advanced materials to protect users against hazardous or life-threatening situations. with headquarters located in cranberry twp, pennsylvania, msa employs approximately 5,000 associates and maintains operations that extend around the world. these resources include manufacturing operations on five continents, major r&d centers in the us, germany and china, and more than 40 international locations that help protect lives in more than 140 countries. a publicly held company, msa's stock is traded over the nyse exchange under the symbol msa. the company has annual revenues of approximately $1 billion and has achieved record growth in revenue in 8 of the past 10 years.

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$261.37
Latest Price	$162.38
Relative Value	38% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Millions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 19.3%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.5%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 19.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (million)	Present value (million)
2023	343	319
2024	410	354
2025	489	393
2026	584	436
2027	697	484

Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 12800 million. This corresponds to a present value of 8280 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1990 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 10300 million.

There are presently 39.3 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 261.37.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	880,126,000
Current Cash	172,807,000
Current Liabilities	345,865,000
Current Debt	7,387,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	368,841,000
Change in NCWC	96,512,000
EBIT	277,947,000
Tax Provision	58,903,000
Depreciation and Amortization	56,317,000
Capital Expenditure	-42,553,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	319,587,162

Current Assets	792,804,000
Current Cash	189,869,000
Current Liabilities	330,606,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	272,329,000
Change in NCWC	44,250,000
EBIT	39,429,000
Tax Provision	1,816,000
Depreciation and Amortization	50,317,000
Capital Expenditure	-43,837,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	87,125,486

Current Assets	754,278,000
Current Cash	235,654,000
Current Liabilities	310,545,000
Current Debt	20,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	228,079,000
Change in NCWC	-5,688,000
EBIT	202,810,000
Tax Provision	41,941,000
Depreciation and Amortization	39,674,000
Capital Expenditure	-48,905,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	135,739,572

Current Assets	693,363,000
Current Cash	202,087,000
Current Liabilities	277,509,000
Current Debt	20,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	233,767,000
Change in NCWC	34,342,000
EBIT	219,890,000
Tax Provision	46,086,000
Depreciation and Amortization	38,020,000
Capital Expenditure	-36,604,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	200,493,290

Current Assets	656,623,000
Current Cash	195,201,000
Current Liabilities	282,060,000
Current Debt	20,063,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	199,425,000
Change in NCWC	-26,029,000
EBIT	189,056,000
Tax Provision	37,220,000
Depreciation and Amortization	37,852,000
Capital Expenditure	-33,960,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	123,572,436

Current Assets	622,297,000
Current Cash	134,244,000
Current Liabilities	289,279,000
Current Debt	26,680,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	225,454,000
Change in NCWC	61,151,000
EBIT	66,104,000
Tax Provision	2,819,000
Depreciation and Amortization	37,877,000
Capital Expenditure	-23,725,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	135,148,488

Current Assets	472,806,000
Current Cash	113,759,000
Current Liabilities	221,410,000
Current Debt	26,666,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	164,303,000
Change in NCWC	10,438,000
EBIT	170,652,000
Tax Provision	57,804,000
Depreciation and Amortization	35,273,000
Capital Expenditure	-25,523,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	125,904,819

Current Assets	505,027,000
Current Cash	105,925,000
Current Liabilities	251,905,000
Current Debt	6,668,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	153,865,000
Change in NCWC	-10,649,000
EBIT	137,203,000
Tax Provision	44,407,000
Depreciation and Amortization	31,684,000
Capital Expenditure	-36,241,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	67,120,001

Current Assets	497,869,000
Current Cash	105,998,000
Current Liabilities	234,057,000
Current Debt	6,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	164,514,000
Change in NCWC	-56,123,000
EBIT	144,305,000
Tax Provision	41,044,000
Depreciation and Amortization	29,921,000
Capital Expenditure	-33,583,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	37,954,848

Current Assets	500,966,000
Current Cash	96,265,000
Current Liabilities	191,564,000
Current Debt	7,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	220,637,000
Change in NCWC	21,784,000
EBIT	141,781,000
Tax Provision	35,145,000
Depreciation and Amortization	30,764,000
Capital Expenditure	-36,517,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	116,333,861

Current Assets	463,548,000
Current Cash	82,718,000
Current Liabilities	188,800,000
Current Debt	6,823,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	198,853,000
Change in NCWC	-36,551,000
EBIT	140,598,000
Tax Provision	42,529,000
Depreciation and Amortization	31,702,000
Capital Expenditure	-32,209,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	59,013,286

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