DCF Tool

MUSA

Murphy USA Inc – Other Gasoline Stations
Murphy USA is a leading retailer of gasoline and convenience merchandise with more than 1,650 stations located primarily in the Southwest, Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast United States. The company and its team of nearly 15,000 employees serve an estimated 2.0 million customers each day through its network of retail gasoline and convenience stations in 27 states. The majority of Murphy USA's sites are located in close proximity to Walmart stores. The company also markets gasoline and other products at standalone stores under the Murphy Express and QuickChek brands. Murphy USA ranks 262 among Fortune 500 companies.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $540.28
Latest Price $290.77
Relative Value 46% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 15.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 15.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 327 308
2023 378 336
2024 438 367
2025 507 401
2026 587 438
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 14700 million. This corresponds to a present value of 10400 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 1850 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 12200 million.

There are presently 22.6 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 540.28.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 767,800,000
Current Cash 256,400,000
Current Liabilities 675,300,000
Current Debt 15,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -148,900,000
Change in NCWC -130,600,000
EBIT 612,900,000
Tax Provision 125,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 212,600,000
Capital Expenditure -274,700,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 273,404,636
Current Assets 625,200,000
Current Cash 163,600,000
Current Liabilities 531,100,000
Current Debt 51,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -18,300,000
Change in NCWC 17,400,000
EBIT 559,400,000
Tax Provision 123,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 161,000,000
Capital Expenditure -230,700,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 371,947,377
Current Assets 710,800,000
Current Cash 280,300,000
Current Liabilities 505,000,000
Current Debt 38,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -35,700,000
Change in NCWC 35,600,000
EBIT 268,300,000
Tax Provision 47,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 152,200,000
Capital Expenditure -204,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 188,201,778
Current Assets 570,100,000
Current Cash 184,500,000
Current Liabilities 478,100,000
Current Debt 21,200,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -71,300,000
Change in NCWC -2,102,000
EBIT 275,800,000
Tax Provision 60,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 134,000,000
Capital Expenditure -204,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 142,679,708
Current Assets 614,294,000
Current Cash 170,028,000
Current Liabilities 533,351,000
Current Debt 19,887,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -69,198,000
Change in NCWC 43,025,000
EBIT 287,143,000
Tax Provision -5,242,000
Depreciation and Amortization 116,966,000
Capital Expenditure -258,257,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 188,877,000
Current Assets 515,554,000
Current Cash 153,813,000
Current Liabilities 514,560,000
Current Debt 40,596,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -112,223,000
Change in NCWC -53,485,000
EBIT 299,865,000
Tax Provision 130,539,000
Depreciation and Amortization 98,610,000
Capital Expenditure -262,144,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -28,348,972
Current Assets 435,667,000
Current Cash 102,335,000
Current Liabilities 392,292,000
Current Debt 222,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -58,738,000
Change in NCWC 16,565,000
EBIT 254,764,000
Tax Provision 80,698,000
Depreciation and Amortization 86,568,000
Capital Expenditure -205,225,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 58,489,767
Current Assets 665,882,000
Current Cash 328,105,000
Current Liabilities 413,080,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -75,303,000
Change in NCWC 49,539,000
EBIT 394,471,000
Tax Provision 126,341,000
Depreciation and Amortization 79,234,000
Capital Expenditure -140,257,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 248,079,696
Current Assets 682,416,000
Current Cash 294,741,000
Current Liabilities 526,517,000
Current Debt 14,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -124,842,000
Change in NCWC -155,568,000
EBIT 264,923,000
Tax Provision 101,351,000
Depreciation and Amortization 74,130,000
Capital Expenditure -165,262,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -85,978,038

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