DCF Tool

NBIX

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. – Biological Product (except Diagnostic) Manufacturing
Neurocrine Biosciences is a neuroscience-focused, biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering, developing and delivering life-changing treatments for people with serious, challenging and under-addressed neurological, endocrine and psychiatric disorders. The company's diverse portfolio includes FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis*, uterine fibroids* and clinical programs in multiple therapeutic areas. For nearly three decades, Neurocrine Biosciences has specialized in targeting and interrupting disease-causing mechanisms involving the interconnected pathways of the nervous and endocrine systems.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $416.55
Latest Price $106.21
Relative Value 75% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 43.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.4%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 43.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 0.518 0.486
2023 0.744 0.657
2024 1.07 0.888
2025 1.54 1.2
2026 2.21 1.62
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 50.9 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 35.0 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 4.85 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 39.8 billion.

There are presently 95.6 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 416.55.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 1,945,600,000
Current Cash 1,422,600,000
Current Liabilities 491,600,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 31,400,000
Change in NCWC 2,700,000
EBIT 415,600,000
Tax Provision 23,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 21,800,000
Capital Expenditure -46,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 344,936,291
Current Assets 1,016,200,000
Current Cash 801,000,000
Current Liabilities 186,500,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 28,700,000
Change in NCWC 24,670,000
EBIT 327,500,000
Tax Provision -300,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,600,000
Capital Expenditure -10,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 349,870,000
Current Assets 831,034,000
Current Cash 670,524,000
Current Liabilities 565,287,000
Current Debt 408,807,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 4,030,000
Change in NCWC 5,399,000
EBIT 226,555,000
Tax Provision 9,530,000
Depreciation and Amortization 7,452,000
Capital Expenditure -14,748,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 178,268,305
Current Assets 737,777,000
Current Cash 650,913,000
Current Liabilities 88,233,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,369,000
Change in NCWC 14,067,000
EBIT 36,895,000
Tax Provision 730,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,024,000
Capital Expenditure -24,812,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 28,940,844
Current Assets 554,919,000
Current Cash 515,929,000
Current Liabilities 54,426,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -15,436,000
Change in NCWC 11,886,000
EBIT -131,361,000
Tax Provision 0
Depreciation and Amortization 2,400,000
Capital Expenditure -6,940,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -124,015,000
Current Assets 310,442,000
Current Cash 307,350,000
Current Liabilities 30,414,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -27,322,000
Change in NCWC -6,490,000
EBIT -147,372,000
Tax Provision 0
Depreciation and Amortization 1,453,000
Capital Expenditure -4,108,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -156,517,000
Current Assets 384,074,000
Current Cash 379,191,000
Current Liabilities 25,715,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -20,832,000
Change in NCWC -9,562,000
EBIT -94,202,000
Tax Provision 0
Depreciation and Amortization 1,009,000
Capital Expenditure -1,934,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -104,689,000
Current Assets 198,203,000
Current Cash 193,809,000
Current Liabilities 15,664,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -11,270,000
Change in NCWC -2,294,000
EBIT -64,411,000
Tax Provision 0
Depreciation and Amortization 827,000
Capital Expenditure -1,612,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -67,490,000
Current Assets 148,462,000
Current Cash 145,739,000
Current Liabilities 11,699,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -8,976,000
Change in NCWC -9,581,000
EBIT -49,678,000
Tax Provision 0
Depreciation and Amortization 671,000
Capital Expenditure -545,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -59,133,000
Current Assets 189,264,000
Current Cash 173,013,000
Current Liabilities 15,646,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 605,000
Change in NCWC 44,342,000
EBIT 2,540,000
Tax Provision 0
Depreciation and Amortization 657,000
Capital Expenditure -971,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 46,568,000

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