DCF Tool


NAPCO Security Technologies Inc – Other Communications Equipment Manufacturing
NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc., is one of the world's leading manufacturers and service providers of high-tech electronic security devices as well as a leading provider of school safety solutions. The Company consists of four Divisions: NAPCO, plus three wholly-owned subsidiaries: Alarm Lock, Continental Instruments, and Marks USA. Headquartered in Amityville, New York, its products are installed by tens of thousands of security professionals worldwide in commercial, industrial, institutional, residential and government applications. NAPCO products have earned a reputation for innovation, technical excellence and reliability, positioning the Company for growth in the multi-billion dollar and rapidly expanding electronic security market.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $5.65
Latest Price $16.82
Relative Value 198% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 7.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 8.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 7.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 12.2 11.3
2023 13.2 11.1
2024 14.2 11.0
2025 15.2 10.9
2026 16.4 10.8
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 251 million. This corresponds to a present value of 152 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 55.2 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 207 million.

There are presently 36.7 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 5.65.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 95,986,000
Current Cash 40,219,000
Current Liabilities 20,176,000
Current Debt 2,386,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 37,977,000
Change in NCWC -6,615,000
EBIT 17,335,000
Tax Provision 2,429,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,696,000
Capital Expenditure -1,007,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,979,299
Current Assets 78,460,000
Current Cash 18,248,000
Current Liabilities 17,414,000
Current Debt 1,794,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 44,592,000
Change in NCWC 1,537,000
EBIT 12,665,000
Tax Provision 2,284,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,495,000
Capital Expenditure -1,615,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,404,578
Current Assets 65,455,000
Current Cash 8,028,000
Current Liabilities 14,372,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 43,055,000
Change in NCWC 4,062,000
EBIT 13,466,000
Tax Provision 1,222,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,409,000
Capital Expenditure -1,988,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 15,725,091
Current Assets 53,703,000
Current Cash 5,308,000
Current Liabilities 9,402,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 38,993,000
Change in NCWC 1,649,000
EBIT 8,414,000
Tax Provision 684,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,409,000
Capital Expenditure -1,280,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 9,501,351
Current Assets 51,271,000
Current Cash 3,454,000
Current Liabilities 10,473,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 37,344,000
Change in NCWC 3,961,000
EBIT 6,378,000
Tax Provision 696,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,374,000
Capital Expenditure -1,414,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 9,593,823
Current Assets 45,884,000
Current Cash 3,805,000
Current Liabilities 8,996,000
Current Debt 300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 33,383,000
Change in NCWC -1,461,000
EBIT 6,323,000
Tax Provision 371,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,420,000
Capital Expenditure -693,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,207,191
Current Assets 45,023,000
Current Cash 2,346,000
Current Liabilities 9,433,000
Current Debt 1,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 34,844,000
Change in NCWC 2,291,000
EBIT 5,281,000
Tax Provision 216,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,570,000
Capital Expenditure -730,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 8,186,610
Current Assets 42,679,000
Current Cash 2,483,000
Current Liabilities 9,243,000
Current Debt 1,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 32,553,000
Change in NCWC 961,000
EBIT 4,316,000
Tax Provision 531,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,740,000
Capital Expenditure -753,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,692,051
Current Assets 41,836,000
Current Cash 3,229,000
Current Liabilities 8,615,000
Current Debt 1,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 31,592,000
Change in NCWC 766,000
EBIT 3,796,000
Tax Provision 187,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,974,000
Capital Expenditure -383,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,931,724

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