NVR Intrinsic Value

NVR

NVR Inc. – New Housing For-Sale Builders

nvr, inc. is a top 5 us homebuilder and an industry leading company. with more than 65 years of experience building quality homes and successful careers, and our standing as the most profitable publicly traded homebuilding company in the us, nvr has developed our reputation for stability & responsibility. as a market leading homebuilder, nvr operates throughout 27 metropolitan areas in 15 states under the brand names of ryan homes, nvhomes, foxridge homes, and newly acquired heartland homes. we are the dominant homebuilder in each of our markets and have constructed more than 365,000 homes while maintaining a commitment to quality product & customer care. nvr mortgage’s primary focus is to serve the needs of nvr homebuyers while nvr settlement services provides a complete range of settlement and title services to support nvr’s homebuilding operations. at the corporate level, nvr provides various support functions and an intertwined network of resources utilized by each of its co

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$30,777.85
Latest Price	$6,320.35
Relative Value	79% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 18.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 18.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	1.84	1.77
2024	2.18	2.02
2025	2.59	2.3
2026	3.08	2.62
2027	3.66	3.0

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 110 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 86.3 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 11.7 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 98.0 billion.

There are presently 3.18 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 30777.85.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	4,704,564,000
Current Cash	2,503,424,000
Current Liabilities	2,137,156,000
Current Debt	914,888,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	978,872,000
Change in NCWC	-80,308,000
EBIT	2,254,578,000
Tax Provision	527,619,000
Depreciation and Amortization	17,396,000
Capital Expenditure	-18,428,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,645,294,915

Current Assets	4,909,654,000
Current Cash	2,545,069,000
Current Liabilities	2,821,660,000
Current Debt	1,516,255,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,059,180,000
Change in NCWC	-74,394,000
EBIT	1,591,990,000
Tax Provision	353,684,000
Depreciation and Amortization	19,463,000
Capital Expenditure	-17,875,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,165,147,072

Current Assets	4,991,667,000
Current Cash	2,714,720,000
Current Liabilities	2,660,768,000
Current Debt	1,517,395,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,133,574,000
Change in NCWC	77,169,000
EBIT	1,079,447,000
Tax Provision	176,785,000
Depreciation and Amortization	21,992,000
Capital Expenditure	-16,119,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	985,472,120

Current Assets	3,023,285,000
Current Cash	1,110,892,000
Current Liabilities	1,454,289,000
Current Debt	598,301,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,056,405,000
Change in NCWC	38,599,000
EBIT	1,050,130,000
Tax Provision	147,256,000
Depreciation and Amortization	20,818,000
Capital Expenditure	-22,699,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	936,098,636

Current Assets	2,466,279,000
Current Cash	688,783,000
Current Liabilities	1,357,371,000
Current Debt	597,681,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	1,017,806,000
Change in NCWC	137,321,000
EBIT	983,768,000
Tax Provision	162,535,000
Depreciation and Amortization	20,168,000
Capital Expenditure	-19,665,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	954,986,393

Current Assets	2,312,293,000
Current Cash	645,087,000
Current Liabilities	1,383,787,000
Current Debt	597,066,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	880,485,000
Change in NCWC	122,437,000
EBIT	869,948,000
Tax Provision	309,390,000
Depreciation and Amortization	22,667,000
Capital Expenditure	-20,269,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	676,977,219

Current Assets	1,875,961,000
Current Cash	375,748,000
Current Liabilities	1,338,620,000
Current Debt	596,455,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	758,048,000
Change in NCWC	69,298,000
EBIT	682,318,000
Tax Provision	236,435,000
Depreciation and Amortization	22,269,000
Capital Expenditure	-22,369,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	507,712,784

Current Assets	1,761,887,000
Current Cash	397,522,000
Current Liabilities	1,274,875,000
Current Debt	599,260,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	688,750,000
Change in NCWC	199,653,000
EBIT	626,130,000
Tax Provision	220,285,000
Depreciation and Amortization	21,534,000
Capital Expenditure	-18,277,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	600,385,651

Current Assets	1,630,109,000
Current Cash	514,780,000
Current Liabilities	1,225,462,000
Current Debt	599,230,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	489,097,000
Change in NCWC	129,761,000
EBIT	476,137,000
Tax Provision	171,916,000
Depreciation and Amortization	17,614,000
Capital Expenditure	-31,672,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	411,360,911

Current Assets	1,824,320,000
Current Cash	844,274,000
Current Liabilities	1,223,150,000
Current Debt	602,440,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	359,336,000
Change in NCWC	-12,020,000
EBIT	440,536,000
Tax Provision	152,219,000
Depreciation and Amortization	13,391,000
Capital Expenditure	-19,016,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	262,731,960

Current Assets	2,029,082,000
Current Cash	1,139,103,000
Current Liabilities	1,122,185,000
Current Debt	603,562,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	371,356,000
Change in NCWC	-28,624,000
EBIT	282,060,000
Tax Provision	94,489,000
Depreciation and Amortization	8,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-12,365,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	152,283,338

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