DCF Tool

NVS

Novartis AG – Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $189.11
Latest Price $76.01
Relative Value 60% undervalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Ad
Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
%
%
%
New Ticker
Ad
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 3.2%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.9%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 3.2%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 15.0 14.3
2023 15.5 14.1
2024 16.0 13.9
2025 16.5 13.7
2026 17.1 13.5
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 512 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 385 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 69.5 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 455 billion.

There are presently 2.4 billion outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 189.11.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 91,436,000,000
Current Cash 56,658,000,000
Current Liabilities 60,416,000,000
Current Debt 13,004,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -12,634,000,000
Change in NCWC -7,562,000,000
EBIT 55,846,000,000
Tax Provision 4,238,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,226,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,942,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 50,040,407,927
Current Assets 29,673,000,000
Current Cash 11,563,000,000
Current Liabilities 33,059,000,000
Current Debt 9,877,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -5,072,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,958,000,000
EBIT 12,273,000,000
Tax Provision 1,807,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,464,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,585,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,948,878,416
Current Assets 29,504,000,000
Current Cash 11,446,000,000
Current Liabilities 28,264,000,000
Current Debt 7,092,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -3,114,000,000
Change in NCWC -2,726,000,000
EBIT 11,140,000,000
Tax Provision 1,793,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 5,826,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,379,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 10,626,769,574
Current Assets 35,563,000,000
Current Cash 15,964,000,000
Current Liabilities 29,607,000,000
Current Debt 9,620,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -388,000,000
Change in NCWC -909,000,000
EBIT 15,652,000,000
Tax Provision 1,221,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,892,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,394,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 16,859,641,705
Current Assets 28,208,000,000
Current Cash 9,485,000,000
Current Liabilities 23,403,000,000
Current Debt 5,201,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 521,000,000
Change in NCWC -213,000,000
EBIT 10,099,000,000
Tax Provision 1,296,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,076,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,788,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,719,582,398
Current Assets 24,931,000,000
Current Cash 7,777,000,000
Current Liabilities 22,209,000,000
Current Debt 5,789,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 734,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,470,000,000
EBIT 9,388,000,000
Tax Provision 1,119,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,043,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,118,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 12,439,112,063
Current Assets 22,845,000,000
Current Cash 5,447,000,000
Current Liabilities 23,708,000,000
Current Debt 5,574,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -736,000,000
Change in NCWC -4,022,000,000
EBIT 10,041,000,000
Tax Provision 1,106,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 5,471,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,505,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 6,619,700,516
Current Assets 37,561,000,000
Current Cash 13,862,000,000
Current Liabilities 26,973,000,000
Current Debt 6,560,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 3,286,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,661,000,000
EBIT 13,889,000,000
Tax Provision 1,545,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,682,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,404,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 15,079,425,602
Current Assets 30,542,000,000
Current Cash 9,222,000,000
Current Liabilities 26,368,000,000
Current Debt 6,673,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,625,000,000
Change in NCWC 8,000,000
EBIT 12,362,000,000
Tax Provision 1,443,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,925,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,610,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 12,023,298,462
Current Assets 28,004,000,000
Current Cash 8,119,000,000
Current Liabilities 24,051,000,000
Current Debt 5,783,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,617,000,000
Change in NCWC -588,000,000
EBIT 12,735,000,000
Tax Provision 1,625,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 4,920,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,125,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 12,101,354,709

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.