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Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc – All Other General Merchandise Stores
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. is a highly differentiated and fast growing, extreme value retailer of brand name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. is known for its assortment of merchandise offered as Good Stuff Cheap®. The company offers name brand products, Real Brands! Real Bargains!®, in every department, including housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, toys, health and beauty aids and other categories. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. currently operates 394 stores in 25 states throughout half of the United States.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $241.34
Latest Price $47.50
Relative Value 80% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 44.6%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 10.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 44.6%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.384 0.349
2024 0.555 0.458
2025 0.803 0.602
2026 1.16 0.79
2027 1.68 1.04
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 21.1 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 11.9 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 3.24 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 15.1 billion.

There are presently 62.6 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 241.34.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 726,828,000
Current Cash 246,977,000
Current Liabilities 263,268,000
Current Debt 332,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 216,915,000
Change in NCWC 138,742,000
EBIT 204,592,000
Tax Provision 46,928,000
Depreciation and Amortization 24,894,000
Capital Expenditure -34,989,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 286,263,011
Current Assets 808,767,000
Current Cash 447,126,000
Current Liabilities 283,796,000
Current Debt 328,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 78,173,000
Change in NCWC -88,003,000
EBIT 277,500,000
Tax Provision 35,082,000
Depreciation and Amortization 22,465,000
Capital Expenditure -30,570,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 146,345,110
Current Assets 433,538,000
Current Cash 89,950,000
Current Liabilities 177,685,000
Current Debt 273,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 166,176,000
Change in NCWC 10,378,000
EBIT 171,855,000
Tax Provision 31,603,000
Depreciation and Amortization 17,543,000
Capital Expenditure -76,979,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 91,354,637
Current Assets 358,497,000
Current Cash 51,941,000
Current Liabilities 150,996,000
Current Debt 238,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 155,798,000
Change in NCWC 17,924,000
EBIT 162,054,000
Tax Provision 25,630,000
Depreciation and Amortization 14,343,000
Capital Expenditure -74,178,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 94,287,880
Current Assets 303,676,000
Current Cash 39,234,000
Current Liabilities 136,726,000
Current Debt 10,158,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 137,874,000
Change in NCWC 23,471,000
EBIT 135,756,000
Tax Provision 2,893,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,261,000
Capital Expenditure -19,285,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 149,193,182
Current Assets 312,830,000
Current Cash 98,683,000
Current Liabilities 104,821,000
Current Debt 5,077,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 114,403,000
Change in NCWC 12,606,000
EBIT 102,194,000
Tax Provision 36,495,000
Depreciation and Amortization 10,668,000
Capital Expenditure -16,438,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 70,284,843

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