DCF Tool

ORLY

O`Reilly Automotive, Inc. – New Car Dealers
it started with two men - c.f. and chub o’reilly. together they had the courage and the confidence to strike out on their own. they gathered together 11 others who shared the same desire to offer great customer service and auto parts availability and opened the doors of o’reilly automotive, inc. on december 2, 1957. now, more than 57 years later, the more than 68,000 team members at o’reilly auto parts are proud of the growth and success we’ve experienced over the years. during our early years, we focused on sales and slow and steady growth. at the end of our first year, sales totaled $700,000, and by 1961 these sales reached $1.3 million. for the first seven years of operation, our first store in springfield, mo was our only store until the second one opened in july 1965.by march of 1975, we had nine stores, annual sales of $7 million, and opened our new 48,000 square-foot warehouse, also in springfield. the long range plans and stability of the company were solidified by a publ
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,765.78
Latest Price $980.52
Relative Value 44% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 17.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 2.05 1.97
2024 2.41 2.22
2025 2.83 2.51
2026 3.33 2.83
2027 3.91 3.19
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 117 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 91.8 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 12.7 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 104 billion.

There are presently 59.2 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1765.78.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 5,048,259,000
Current Cash 108,583,000
Current Liabilities 7,063,817,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -2,124,141,000
Change in NCWC -391,675,000
EBIT 2,954,491,000
Tax Provision 626,005,000
Depreciation and Amortization 357,933,000
Capital Expenditure -563,342,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,696,544,500
Current Assets 4,504,262,000
Current Cash 362,113,000
Current Liabilities 5,874,615,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,732,466,000
Change in NCWC -504,196,000
EBIT 2,917,168,000
Tax Provision 617,229,000
Depreciation and Amortization 328,217,000
Capital Expenditure -442,853,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,651,097,915
Current Assets 4,499,787,000
Current Cash 465,640,000
Current Liabilities 5,262,417,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,228,270,000
Change in NCWC -552,099,000
EBIT 2,419,336,000
Tax Provision 514,103,000
Depreciation and Amortization 314,635,000
Capital Expenditure -465,579,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,167,499,692
Current Assets 3,833,662,000
Current Cash 40,406,000
Current Liabilities 4,469,427,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -676,171,000
Change in NCWC -293,938,000
EBIT 1,920,726,000
Tax Provision 399,287,000
Depreciation and Amortization 270,875,000
Capital Expenditure -628,057,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 841,237,291
Current Assets 3,543,102,000
Current Cash 31,315,000
Current Liabilities 3,894,020,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -382,233,000
Change in NCWC -86,191,000
EBIT 1,815,184,000
Tax Provision 369,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 258,937,000
Capital Expenditure -504,268,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,087,642,193
Current Assets 3,397,672,000
Current Cash 46,348,000
Current Liabilities 3,647,366,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -296,042,000
Change in NCWC -6,770,000
EBIT 1,725,400,000
Tax Provision 504,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 233,845,000
Capital Expenditure -465,940,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 955,579,159
Current Assets 3,257,975,000
Current Cash 146,598,000
Current Liabilities 3,400,649,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -289,272,000
Change in NCWC -136,599,000
EBIT 1,699,206,000
Tax Provision 599,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 217,866,000
Capital Expenditure -476,344,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 681,920,597
Current Assets 3,010,026,000
Current Cash 116,301,000
Current Liabilities 3,046,398,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -152,673,000
Change in NCWC -138,560,000
EBIT 1,514,021,000
Tax Provision 529,150,000
Depreciation and Amortization 210,256,000
Capital Expenditure -414,020,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 623,105,611
Current Assets 3,066,978,000
Current Cash 250,560,000
Current Liabilities 2,830,556,000
Current Debt 25,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -14,113,000
Change in NCWC -195,053,000
EBIT 1,270,374,000
Tax Provision 444,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 194,205,000
Capital Expenditure -429,987,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 378,031,584
Current Assets 2,835,201,000
Current Cash 231,318,000
Current Liabilities 2,423,010,000
Current Debt 67,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 180,940,000
Change in NCWC -31,237,000
EBIT 1,103,485,000
Tax Provision 388,650,000
Depreciation and Amortization 183,180,000
Capital Expenditure -395,881,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 454,548,949
Current Assets 2,732,948,000
Current Cash 248,128,000
Current Liabilities 2,272,865,000
Current Debt 222,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 212,177,000
Change in NCWC -454,533,000
EBIT 977,393,000
Tax Provision 355,775,000
Depreciation and Amortization 177,106,000
Capital Expenditure -300,719,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 29,916,953

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