ORLY
Analysis Results
| Intrinsic Value | $1,288.64 |
|---|---|
| Latest Price | $923.00 |
| Relative Value | 28% undervalued |
Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New TickerAnalysis Details
Growth Rate Projection
An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.5%.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
The calculated WACC is 6.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.
Value of Future Flows
Assuming a growth rate of 17.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.
The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.
| Year | Future flow (billion) | Present value (billion) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2.05 | 1.93 |
| 2024 | 2.41 | 2.14 |
| 2025 | 2.83 | 2.36 |
| 2026 | 3.33 | 2.62 |
| 2027 | 3.91 | 2.89 |
Terminal Value
Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 95.3 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 66.5 billion.
Intrinsic Value Per Share
The total present value of the projected cash flows is 11.9 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 78.5 billion.
There are presently 60.9 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1288.64.
Financial Statements
The following data was to determine the past cash flows.
| Current Assets | 5,048,259,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 108,583,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 7,063,817,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -2,124,141,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -391,675,000 |
| EBIT | 2,954,491,000 |
| Tax Provision | 626,005,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 357,933,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -563,342,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 1,696,544,500 |
| Current Assets | 4,504,262,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 362,113,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 5,874,615,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -1,732,466,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -504,196,000 |
| EBIT | 2,917,168,000 |
| Tax Provision | 617,229,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 328,217,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -442,853,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 1,651,097,915 |
| Current Assets | 4,499,787,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 465,640,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 5,262,417,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -1,228,270,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -552,099,000 |
| EBIT | 2,419,336,000 |
| Tax Provision | 514,103,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 314,635,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -465,579,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 1,167,499,692 |
| Current Assets | 3,833,662,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 40,406,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 4,469,427,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -676,171,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -293,938,000 |
| EBIT | 1,920,726,000 |
| Tax Provision | 399,287,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 270,875,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -628,057,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 841,237,291 |
| Current Assets | 3,543,102,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 31,315,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 3,894,020,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -382,233,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -86,191,000 |
| EBIT | 1,815,184,000 |
| Tax Provision | 369,600,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 258,937,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -504,268,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 1,087,642,193 |
| Current Assets | 3,397,672,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 46,348,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 3,647,366,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -296,042,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -6,770,000 |
| EBIT | 1,725,400,000 |
| Tax Provision | 504,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 233,845,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -465,940,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 955,579,159 |
| Current Assets | 3,257,975,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 146,598,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 3,400,649,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -289,272,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -136,599,000 |
| EBIT | 1,699,206,000 |
| Tax Provision | 599,500,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 217,866,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -476,344,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 681,920,597 |
| Current Assets | 3,010,026,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 116,301,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 3,046,398,000 |
| Current Debt | 0 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -152,673,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -138,560,000 |
| EBIT | 1,514,021,000 |
| Tax Provision | 529,150,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 210,256,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -414,020,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 623,105,611 |
| Current Assets | 3,066,978,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 250,560,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 2,830,556,000 |
| Current Debt | 25,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | -14,113,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -195,053,000 |
| EBIT | 1,270,374,000 |
| Tax Provision | 444,000,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 194,205,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -429,987,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 378,031,584 |
| Current Assets | 2,835,201,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 231,318,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 2,423,010,000 |
| Current Debt | 67,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 180,940,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -31,237,000 |
| EBIT | 1,103,485,000 |
| Tax Provision | 388,650,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 183,180,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -395,881,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 454,548,949 |
| Current Assets | 2,732,948,000 |
|---|---|
| Current Cash | 248,128,000 |
| Current Liabilities | 2,272,865,000 |
| Current Debt | 222,000 |
| Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) | 212,177,000 |
| Change in NCWC | -454,533,000 |
| EBIT | 977,393,000 |
| Tax Provision | 355,775,000 |
| Depreciation and Amortization | 177,106,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | -300,719,000 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 29,916,953 |
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