ORLY Intrinsic Value

ORLY

O`Reilly Automotive, Inc. – New Car Dealers

it started with two men - c.f. and chub o’reilly. together they had the courage and the confidence to strike out on their own. they gathered together 11 others who shared the same desire to offer great customer service and auto parts availability and opened the doors of o’reilly automotive, inc. on december 2, 1957. now, more than 57 years later, the more than 68,000 team members at o’reilly auto parts are proud of the growth and success we’ve experienced over the years. during our early years, we focused on sales and slow and steady growth. at the end of our first year, sales totaled $700,000, and by 1961 these sales reached $1.3 million. for the first seven years of operation, our first store in springfield, mo was our only store until the second one opened in july 1965.by march of 1975, we had nine stores, annual sales of $7 million, and opened our new 48,000 square-foot warehouse, also in springfield. the long range plans and stability of the company were solidified by a publ

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$1,765.78
Latest Price	$980.52
Relative Value	44% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 17.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	2.05	1.97
2024	2.41	2.22
2025	2.83	2.51
2026	3.33	2.83
2027	3.91	3.19

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 117 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 91.8 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 12.7 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 104 billion.

There are presently 59.2 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1765.78.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	5,048,259,000
Current Cash	108,583,000
Current Liabilities	7,063,817,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-2,124,141,000
Change in NCWC	-391,675,000
EBIT	2,954,491,000
Tax Provision	626,005,000
Depreciation and Amortization	357,933,000
Capital Expenditure	-563,342,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,696,544,500

Current Assets	4,504,262,000
Current Cash	362,113,000
Current Liabilities	5,874,615,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-1,732,466,000
Change in NCWC	-504,196,000
EBIT	2,917,168,000
Tax Provision	617,229,000
Depreciation and Amortization	328,217,000
Capital Expenditure	-442,853,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,651,097,915

Current Assets	4,499,787,000
Current Cash	465,640,000
Current Liabilities	5,262,417,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-1,228,270,000
Change in NCWC	-552,099,000
EBIT	2,419,336,000
Tax Provision	514,103,000
Depreciation and Amortization	314,635,000
Capital Expenditure	-465,579,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,167,499,692

Current Assets	3,833,662,000
Current Cash	40,406,000
Current Liabilities	4,469,427,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-676,171,000
Change in NCWC	-293,938,000
EBIT	1,920,726,000
Tax Provision	399,287,000
Depreciation and Amortization	270,875,000
Capital Expenditure	-628,057,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	841,237,291

Current Assets	3,543,102,000
Current Cash	31,315,000
Current Liabilities	3,894,020,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-382,233,000
Change in NCWC	-86,191,000
EBIT	1,815,184,000
Tax Provision	369,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	258,937,000
Capital Expenditure	-504,268,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,087,642,193

Current Assets	3,397,672,000
Current Cash	46,348,000
Current Liabilities	3,647,366,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-296,042,000
Change in NCWC	-6,770,000
EBIT	1,725,400,000
Tax Provision	504,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	233,845,000
Capital Expenditure	-465,940,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	955,579,159

Current Assets	3,257,975,000
Current Cash	146,598,000
Current Liabilities	3,400,649,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-289,272,000
Change in NCWC	-136,599,000
EBIT	1,699,206,000
Tax Provision	599,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	217,866,000
Capital Expenditure	-476,344,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	681,920,597

Current Assets	3,010,026,000
Current Cash	116,301,000
Current Liabilities	3,046,398,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-152,673,000
Change in NCWC	-138,560,000
EBIT	1,514,021,000
Tax Provision	529,150,000
Depreciation and Amortization	210,256,000
Capital Expenditure	-414,020,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	623,105,611

Current Assets	3,066,978,000
Current Cash	250,560,000
Current Liabilities	2,830,556,000
Current Debt	25,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-14,113,000
Change in NCWC	-195,053,000
EBIT	1,270,374,000
Tax Provision	444,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	194,205,000
Capital Expenditure	-429,987,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	378,031,584

Current Assets	2,835,201,000
Current Cash	231,318,000
Current Liabilities	2,423,010,000
Current Debt	67,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	180,940,000
Change in NCWC	-31,237,000
EBIT	1,103,485,000
Tax Provision	388,650,000
Depreciation and Amortization	183,180,000
Capital Expenditure	-395,881,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	454,548,949

Current Assets	2,732,948,000
Current Cash	248,128,000
Current Liabilities	2,272,865,000
Current Debt	222,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	212,177,000
Change in NCWC	-454,533,000
EBIT	977,393,000
Tax Provision	355,775,000
Depreciation and Amortization	177,106,000
Capital Expenditure	-300,719,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	29,916,953

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