DCF Tool

ORLY

O`Reilly Automotive, Inc. – New Car Dealers
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 by the O'Reilly family and is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States, serving both the do-it-yourself and professional service provider markets. As of December 31, 2020, the Company operated 5,594 stores in 47 U.S. states and 22 stores in Mexico.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,026.23
Latest Price $693.19
Relative Value 32% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 19.0%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.7%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 19.0%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 1.85 1.74
2023 2.21 1.94
2024 2.62 2.16
2025 3.12 2.4
2026 3.71 2.68
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 79.9 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 54.1 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 10.9 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 65.0 billion.

There are presently 63.3 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1026.23.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 4,504,262,000
Current Cash 362,113,000
Current Liabilities 5,874,615,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,732,466,000
Change in NCWC -504,196,000
EBIT 2,917,168,000
Tax Provision 617,229,000
Depreciation and Amortization 328,217,000
Capital Expenditure -442,853,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,651,097,915
Current Assets 4,499,787,000
Current Cash 465,640,000
Current Liabilities 5,262,417,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -1,228,270,000
Change in NCWC -552,099,000
EBIT 2,419,336,000
Tax Provision 514,103,000
Depreciation and Amortization 314,635,000
Capital Expenditure -465,579,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,167,499,692
Current Assets 3,833,662,000
Current Cash 40,406,000
Current Liabilities 4,469,427,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -676,171,000
Change in NCWC -293,938,000
EBIT 1,920,726,000
Tax Provision 399,287,000
Depreciation and Amortization 270,875,000
Capital Expenditure -628,057,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 841,237,291
Current Assets 3,543,102,000
Current Cash 31,315,000
Current Liabilities 3,894,020,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -382,233,000
Change in NCWC -86,191,000
EBIT 1,815,184,000
Tax Provision 369,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 258,937,000
Capital Expenditure -504,268,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,087,642,193
Current Assets 3,397,672,000
Current Cash 46,348,000
Current Liabilities 3,647,366,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -296,042,000
Change in NCWC -6,770,000
EBIT 1,725,400,000
Tax Provision 504,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 233,845,000
Capital Expenditure -465,940,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 955,579,159
Current Assets 3,257,975,000
Current Cash 146,598,000
Current Liabilities 3,400,649,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -289,272,000
Change in NCWC -136,599,000
EBIT 1,699,206,000
Tax Provision 599,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 217,866,000
Capital Expenditure -476,344,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 681,920,597
Current Assets 3,010,026,000
Current Cash 116,301,000
Current Liabilities 3,046,398,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -152,673,000
Change in NCWC -138,560,000
EBIT 1,514,021,000
Tax Provision 529,150,000
Depreciation and Amortization 210,256,000
Capital Expenditure -414,020,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 623,105,611
Current Assets 3,066,978,000
Current Cash 250,560,000
Current Liabilities 2,830,556,000
Current Debt 25,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -14,113,000
Change in NCWC -195,053,000
EBIT 1,270,374,000
Tax Provision 444,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 194,205,000
Capital Expenditure -429,987,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 378,031,584
Current Assets 2,835,201,000
Current Cash 231,318,000
Current Liabilities 2,423,010,000
Current Debt 67,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 180,940,000
Change in NCWC -31,237,000
EBIT 1,103,485,000
Tax Provision 388,650,000
Depreciation and Amortization 183,180,000
Capital Expenditure -395,881,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 454,548,949
Current Assets 2,732,948,000
Current Cash 248,128,000
Current Liabilities 2,272,865,000
Current Debt 222,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 212,177,000
Change in NCWC -454,533,000
EBIT 977,393,000
Tax Provision 355,775,000
Depreciation and Amortization 177,106,000
Capital Expenditure -300,719,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 29,916,953

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