PCAR Intrinsic Value

PCAR

Paccar Inc. – Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturing

paccar is a global technology leader in the design, manufacture and customer support of premium light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks under the kenworth, peterbilt and daf nameplates. paccar also designs and manufactures advanced diesel engines, provides financial services, information technology, and distributes truck parts related to its principal business. kenworth truck company builds premium commercial vehicles for sale in the u.s., canada, mexico and australia and for export throughout the world. peterbilt motors also designs, manufactures and distributes premium commercial vehicles in the us and canada. daf trucks manufactures trucks in the netherlands, belgium, brasil and the united kingdom for sale throughout western and eastern europe, and export to asia, africa, north and south america. paccar parts operates a network of parts distribution centers offering aftermarket support to kenworth, peterbilt and daf dealers and customers around the world. aftermarket support includes

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$278.05
Latest Price	$85.42
Relative Value	69% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 25.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 25.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	3.02	2.85
2024	3.79	3.36
2025	4.76	3.97
2026	5.97	4.68
2027	7.48	5.53

Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 180 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 125 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 20.4 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 145 billion.

There are presently 523.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 278.05.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	24,897,600,000
Current Cash	6,158,900,000
Current Liabilities	17,784,700,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	954,000,000
Change in NCWC	290,500,000
EBIT	3,678,600,000
Tax Provision	837,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	790,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,390,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	2,568,697,092

Current Assets	20,984,800,000
Current Cash	4,813,000,000
Current Liabilities	15,508,300,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	663,500,000
Change in NCWC	844,000,000
EBIT	2,290,500,000
Tax Provision	526,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	903,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,632,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,898,000,819

Current Assets	19,724,300,000
Current Cash	4,834,000,000
Current Liabilities	15,070,800,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-180,500,000
Change in NCWC	560,800,000
EBIT	1,567,900,000
Tax Provision	359,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,049,000,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,638,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,199,315,652

Current Assets	20,270,500,000
Current Cash	5,169,400,000
Current Liabilities	15,842,400,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-741,300,000
Change in NCWC	-406,100,000
EBIT	2,974,900,000
Tax Provision	711,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,077,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,970,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	992,528,197

Current Assets	18,160,900,000
Current Cash	4,299,600,000
Current Liabilities	14,196,500,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-335,200,000
Change in NCWC	-265,700,000
EBIT	2,688,500,000
Tax Provision	615,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,054,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,952,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	936,137,844

Current Assets	15,889,600,000
Current Cash	3,621,900,000
Current Liabilities	12,337,200,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-69,500,000
Change in NCWC	258,200,000
EBIT	2,143,600,000
Tax Provision	498,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	1,107,500,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,846,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	1,171,406,961

Current Assets	13,709,600,000
Current Cash	2,922,600,000
Current Liabilities	11,114,700,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-327,700,000
Change in NCWC	-126,300,000
EBIT	1,947,400,000
Tax Provision	608,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	993,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,964,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-199,339,755

Current Assets	14,689,300,000
Current Cash	3,378,000,000
Current Liabilities	11,512,700,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-201,400,000
Change in NCWC	-313,100,000
EBIT	2,327,600,000
Tax Provision	733,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	907,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,725,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	466,279,953

Current Assets	14,315,500,000
Current Cash	2,937,100,000
Current Liabilities	11,266,700,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	111,700,000
Change in NCWC	205,600,000
EBIT	2,000,800,000
Tax Provision	658,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	917,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,537,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	933,485,646

Current Assets	13,971,000,000
Current Cash	2,925,200,000
Current Liabilities	11,289,700,000
Current Debt	150,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	-93,900,000
Change in NCWC	-269,700,000
EBIT	1,671,700,000
Tax Provision	523,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	810,700,000
Capital Expenditure	-3,503,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	-1,807,201,056

Current Assets	12,779,600,000
Current Cash	2,395,900,000
Current Liabilities	10,207,900,000
Current Debt	0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	175,800,000
Change in NCWC	359,200,000
EBIT	1,595,500,000
Tax Provision	517,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization	700,900,000
Capital Expenditure	-1,803,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	345,507,047

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