DCF Tool

PCAR

Paccar Inc. – Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturing
PACCAR is a global technology leader in the design, manufacture and customer support of high-quality light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF nameplates. PACCAR also designs and manufactures advanced powertrains, provides financial services and information technology, and distributes truck parts related to its principal business.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $251.36
Latest Price $83.69
Relative Value 67% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 18.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 18.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 1.98 1.87
2023 2.35 2.1
2024 2.78 2.35
2025 3.29 2.63
2026 3.9 2.95
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 106 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 75.5 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 11.9 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 87.4 billion.

There are presently 348.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 251.36.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 20,984,800,000
Current Cash 4,813,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,508,300,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 663,500,000
Change in NCWC 844,000,000
EBIT 2,290,500,000
Tax Provision 526,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 903,300,000
Capital Expenditure -1,632,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,898,000,819
Current Assets 19,724,300,000
Current Cash 4,834,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,070,800,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -180,500,000
Change in NCWC 560,800,000
EBIT 1,567,900,000
Tax Provision 359,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,049,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,638,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,199,315,652
Current Assets 20,270,500,000
Current Cash 5,169,400,000
Current Liabilities 15,842,400,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -741,300,000
Change in NCWC -406,100,000
EBIT 2,974,900,000
Tax Provision 711,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,077,300,000
Capital Expenditure -1,970,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 992,528,197
Current Assets 18,160,900,000
Current Cash 4,299,600,000
Current Liabilities 14,196,500,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -335,200,000
Change in NCWC -265,700,000
EBIT 2,688,500,000
Tax Provision 615,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,054,100,000
Capital Expenditure -1,952,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 936,137,844
Current Assets 15,889,600,000
Current Cash 3,621,900,000
Current Liabilities 12,337,200,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -69,500,000
Change in NCWC 258,200,000
EBIT 2,143,600,000
Tax Provision 498,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,107,500,000
Capital Expenditure -1,846,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,171,406,961
Current Assets 13,709,600,000
Current Cash 2,922,600,000
Current Liabilities 11,114,700,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -327,700,000
Change in NCWC -126,300,000
EBIT 1,947,400,000
Tax Provision 608,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 993,100,000
Capital Expenditure -1,964,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -199,339,755
Current Assets 14,689,300,000
Current Cash 3,378,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,512,700,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -201,400,000
Change in NCWC -313,100,000
EBIT 2,327,600,000
Tax Provision 733,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 907,100,000
Capital Expenditure -1,725,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 466,279,953
Current Assets 14,315,500,000
Current Cash 2,937,100,000
Current Liabilities 11,266,700,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 111,700,000
Change in NCWC 205,600,000
EBIT 2,000,800,000
Tax Provision 658,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 917,700,000
Capital Expenditure -1,537,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 933,485,646
Current Assets 13,971,000,000
Current Cash 2,925,200,000
Current Liabilities 11,289,700,000
Current Debt 150,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -93,900,000
Change in NCWC -269,700,000
EBIT 1,671,700,000
Tax Provision 523,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 810,700,000
Capital Expenditure -3,503,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,807,201,056
Current Assets 12,779,600,000
Current Cash 2,395,900,000
Current Liabilities 10,207,900,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 175,800,000
Change in NCWC 359,200,000
EBIT 1,595,500,000
Tax Provision 517,300,000
Depreciation and Amortization 700,900,000
Capital Expenditure -1,803,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 345,507,047

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