DCF Tool

PEN

Penumbra Inc – Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing
Penumbra, Inc., headquartered in Alameda, California, is a global healthcare company focused on innovative therapies. Penumbra designs, develops, manufactures and markets novel products and has a broad portfolio that addresses challenging medical conditions in markets with significant unmet need. Penumbra sells its products to hospitals and healthcare providers primarily through its direct sales organization in the U.S., most of Europe, Canada and Australia, and through distributors in select international markets. Penumbra, the Penumbra P logo, Indigo, CAT, Separator, Lightning, and Penumbra ENGINE are trademarks of Penumbra, Inc.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $19.76
Latest Price $173.06
Relative Value 776% overvalued
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Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.9%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 12.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 17.9%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 50.9 45.4
2023 60.0 47.7
2024 70.7 50.2
2025 83.4 52.7
2026 98.4 55.5
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 989 million. This corresponds to a present value of 497 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 251 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 749 million.

There are presently 37.9 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 19.76.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 681,474,000
Current Cash 254,875,000
Current Liabilities 123,197,000
Current Debt 1,713,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 305,115,000
Change in NCWC 56,846,000
EBIT -7,501,000
Tax Provision -13,125,000
Depreciation and Amortization 16,408,000
Capital Expenditure -21,180,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 44,573,000
Current Assets 617,702,000
Current Cash 264,832,000
Current Liabilities 105,932,000
Current Debt 1,331,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 248,269,000
Change in NCWC 61,407,000
EBIT -38,942,000
Tax Provision -18,761,000
Depreciation and Amortization 12,891,000
Capital Expenditure -24,756,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 10,600,000
Current Assets 463,134,000
Current Cash 189,389,000
Current Liabilities 91,048,000
Current Debt 4,165,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 186,862,000
Change in NCWC 43,087,000
EBIT 47,508,000
Tax Provision 3,131,000
Depreciation and Amortization 8,104,000
Capital Expenditure -22,109,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 73,623,059
Current Assets 410,726,000
Current Cash 200,889,000
Current Liabilities 66,062,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 143,775,000
Change in NCWC 27,714,000
EBIT 26,882,000
Tax Provision -4,403,000
Depreciation and Amortization 6,168,000
Capital Expenditure -9,603,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 51,161,000
Current Assets 382,234,000
Current Cash 214,591,000
Current Liabilities 51,582,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 116,061,000
Change in NCWC 16,787,000
EBIT -265,000
Tax Provision -3,611,000
Depreciation and Amortization 3,781,000
Capital Expenditure -12,532,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,771,000
Current Assets 263,827,000
Current Cash 128,753,000
Current Liabilities 35,800,000
Current Debt 0
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 99,274,000
Change in NCWC 31,865,000
EBIT -1,350,000
Tax Provision -15,683,000
Depreciation and Amortization 2,297,000
Capital Expenditure -13,635,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 19,177,000

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