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Polaris Inc – Motorcycle, Bicycle, and Parts Manufacturing
recognized as the leader in the powersports industry, polaris industries prides itself on recognizing and developing top talent to take its people and company to the next level. polaris is transforming from a north american based company to a global company with over 8,000 employees in 16 different countries spanning five continents of north america, south america, europe, asia, and australia. polaris industries is headquartered just outside of minneapolis in medina, minnesota with annual 2014 sales of $4.5 billion. polaris designs, engineers, manufactures and markets innovative, high quality off-road vehicles, including all-terrain vehicles (atvs) and the polaris ranger® and rzr® side-by-side vehicles, snowmobiles, motorcycles and on-road electric/hybrid powered vehicles. polaris is among the global sales leaders for both snowmobiles and off-road vehicles and has established a presence in the heavyweight cruiser and touring motorcycle market with the victory® and indian motorcycle
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $453.26
Latest Price $101.71
Relative Value 78% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 17.1%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.8%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 17.1%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.972 0.902
2024 1.14 0.979
2025 1.33 1.06
2026 1.56 1.16
2027 1.83 1.25
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 32.0 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 20.3 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 5.35 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 25.7 billion.

There are presently 56.7 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 453.26.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,767,600,000
Current Cash 324,500,000
Current Liabilities 2,328,600,000
Current Debt 553,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 668,100,000
Change in NCWC 295,100,000
EBIT 804,500,000
Tax Provision 158,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 232,800,000
Capital Expenditure -306,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 858,856,212
Current Assets 2,559,000,000
Current Cash 509,200,000
Current Liabilities 2,230,100,000
Current Debt 553,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 373,000,000
Change in NCWC 547,500,000
EBIT 709,000,000
Tax Provision 131,400,000
Depreciation and Amortization 237,100,000
Capital Expenditure -298,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,046,406,600
Current Assets 2,207,500,000
Current Cash 634,700,000
Current Liabilities 1,889,400,000
Current Debt 142,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -174,500,000
Change in NCWC -283,101,000
EBIT 591,500,000
Tax Provision 16,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 260,700,000
Capital Expenditure -213,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 286,176,722
Current Assets 1,626,960,000
Current Cash 157,064,000
Current Liabilities 1,527,990,000
Current Debt 166,695,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 108,601,000
Change in NCWC -85,107,000
EBIT 478,538,000
Tax Provision 83,916,000
Depreciation and Amortization 234,513,000
Capital Expenditure -251,374,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 278,097,722
Current Assets 1,485,703,000
Current Cash 161,164,000
Current Liabilities 1,197,374,000
Current Debt 66,543,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 193,708,000
Change in NCWC 161,114,000
EBIT 458,160,000
Tax Provision 93,992,000
Depreciation and Amortization 211,036,000
Capital Expenditure -225,414,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 504,573,402
Current Assets 1,253,504,000
Current Cash 138,345,000
Current Liabilities 1,130,311,000
Current Debt 47,746,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 32,594,000
Change in NCWC -75,166,000
EBIT 352,897,000
Tax Provision 146,299,000
Depreciation and Amortization 191,108,000
Capital Expenditure -184,388,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 122,500,135
Current Assets 1,190,989,000
Current Cash 127,325,000
Current Liabilities 959,751,000
Current Debt 3,847,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 107,760,000
Change in NCWC -69,892,000
EBIT 343,405,000
Tax Provision 100,303,000
Depreciation and Amortization 167,512,000
Capital Expenditure -209,137,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 121,929,686
Current Assets 1,154,725,000
Current Cash 155,349,000
Current Liabilities 826,783,000
Current Debt 5,059,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 177,652,000
Change in NCWC 66,979,000
EBIT 709,337,000
Tax Provision 230,376,000
Depreciation and Amortization 152,138,000
Capital Expenditure -249,485,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 440,664,488
Current Assets 1,096,555,000
Current Cash 137,600,000
Current Liabilities 850,810,000
Current Debt 2,528,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 110,673,000
Change in NCWC 82,012,000
EBIT 710,566,000
Tax Provision 245,288,000
Depreciation and Amortization 127,507,000
Capital Expenditure -205,079,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 465,772,372
Current Assets 865,698,000
Current Cash 92,248,000
Current Liabilities 748,070,000
Current Debt 3,281,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 28,661,000
Change in NCWC 55,977,000
EBIT 575,500,000
Tax Provision 193,360,000
Depreciation and Amortization 92,100,000
Capital Expenditure -251,401,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 278,455,487
Current Assets 1,017,841,000
Current Cash 417,015,000
Current Liabilities 631,029,000
Current Debt 2,887,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) -27,316,000
Change in NCWC 32,222,000
EBIT 478,246,000
Tax Provision 167,533,000
Depreciation and Amortization 70,580,000
Capital Expenditure -103,083,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 310,989,578

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