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Packaging Corp Of America – Corrugated and Solid Fiber Box Manufacturing
Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is the third largest producer of containerboard products and the third largest producer of uncoated freesheet paper in North America. PCA operates eight paper mills and 92 corrugated products plants and related facilities.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $211.30
Latest Price $137.58
Relative Value 35% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 4.8%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 4.8%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2023 0.913 0.853
2024 0.956 0.835
2025 1.0 0.817
2026 1.05 0.8
2027 1.1 0.783
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 22.4 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 14.9 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 4.09 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 19.0 billion.

There are presently 89.9 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 211.3.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 2,508,300,000
Current Cash 405,200,000
Current Liabilities 875,500,000
Current Debt 1,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,229,500,000
Change in NCWC 84,700,000
EBIT 1,482,000,000
Tax Provision 335,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 456,800,000
Capital Expenditure -830,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 829,332,415
Current Assets 2,732,700,000
Current Cash 704,800,000
Current Liabilities 884,800,000
Current Debt 1,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,144,800,000
Change in NCWC 255,700,000
EBIT 1,296,200,000
Tax Provision 267,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 417,500,000
Capital Expenditure -606,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,049,644,295
Current Assets 2,750,300,000
Current Cash 1,080,200,000
Current Liabilities 782,600,000
Current Debt 1,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 889,100,000
Change in NCWC -99,600,000
EBIT 829,800,000
Tax Provision 171,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 409,900,000
Capital Expenditure -427,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 487,311,664
Current Assets 2,478,400,000
Current Cash 767,400,000
Current Liabilities 723,800,000
Current Debt 1,500,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 988,700,000
Change in NCWC -72,700,000
EBIT 1,086,400,000
Tax Provision 220,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 387,500,000
Capital Expenditure -403,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 736,547,938
Current Assets 2,115,100,000
Current Cash 361,500,000
Current Liabilities 693,600,000
Current Debt 1,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,061,400,000
Change in NCWC 44,600,000
EBIT 1,108,900,000
Tax Provision 232,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 410,900,000
Capital Expenditure -555,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 742,843,894
Current Assets 1,915,100,000
Current Cash 216,900,000
Current Liabilities 832,700,000
Current Debt 151,300,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,016,800,000
Change in NCWC 158,100,000
EBIT 949,600,000
Tax Provision 160,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 391,400,000
Capital Expenditure -350,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 964,935,288
Current Assets 1,696,300,000
Current Cash 239,300,000
Current Liabilities 625,400,000
Current Debt 27,100,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 858,700,000
Change in NCWC 42,600,000
EBIT 804,600,000
Tax Provision 238,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization 358,000,000
Capital Expenditure -274,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 651,714,901
Current Assets 1,554,500,000
Current Cash 184,200,000
Current Liabilities 561,900,000
Current Debt 7,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 816,100,000
Change in NCWC -34,200,000
EBIT 756,700,000
Tax Provision 227,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 364,300,000
Capital Expenditure -314,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 513,006,410
Current Assets 1,578,600,000
Current Cash 124,900,000
Current Liabilities 611,000,000
Current Debt 7,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 850,300,000
Change in NCWC 174,565,000
EBIT 760,000,000
Tax Provision 221,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 390,800,000
Capital Expenditure -420,200,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 630,882,076
Current Assets 1,487,204,000
Current Cash 190,960,000
Current Liabilities 660,539,000
Current Debt 40,030,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 675,735,000
Change in NCWC 189,977,000
EBIT 532,585,000
Tax Provision -20,951,000
Depreciation and Amortization 217,918,000
Capital Expenditure -234,422,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 706,058,000
Current Assets 937,033,000
Current Cash 207,393,000
Current Liabilities 259,846,000
Current Debt 15,964,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 485,758,000
Change in NCWC 190,790,000
EBIT 347,959,000
Tax Provision 216,739,000
Depreciation and Amortization 171,280,000
Capital Expenditure -129,594,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 382,262,612

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