POST Intrinsic Value

POST

Post Holdings Inc – Breakfast Cereal Manufacturing

Post Holdings, Inc., headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a consumer packaged goods holding company operating in the center-of-the-store, refrigerated, foodservice, food ingredient and convenient nutrition food categories. Through its Post Consumer Brands business, Post is a leader in the North American ready-to-eat cereal category offering a broad portfolio including recognized brands such as Honey Bunches of Oats®, Pebbles™, Great Grains® and Malt-O-Meal® bag cereal. Post also is a leader in the United Kingdom ready-to-eat cereal category with the iconic Weetabix® brand. As a leader in refrigerated foods, Post delivers innovative, value-added egg and refrigerated potato products to the foodservice channel and the retail refrigerated side dish category, offering side dish, egg, cheese and sausage products through the Bob Evans®, Simply Potatoes® and Crystal Farms® brands. Post’s publicly-traded subsidiary BellRing Brands, Inc. is a holding company operating in the global convenient nutrition category through its primary brands of Premier Protein®, Dymatize® and PowerBar®. Post participates in the private brand food category through its investment with third parties in 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., a leading, private brand centric, consumer products holding company.

Analysis Results

Intrinsic Value	$627.66
Latest Price	$87.84
Relative Value	86% undervalued

Share results:

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Cash Flow (Billions)

Analysis Parameters

New Ticker

Analysis Details

Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 9.3%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 9.3%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year	Future flow (billion)	Present value (billion)
2023	0.946	0.909
2024	1.03	0.955
2025	1.13	1.0
2026	1.24	1.05
2027	1.35	1.11

Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 40.6 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 31.9 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 5.03 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 36.9 billion.

There are presently 58.8 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 627.66.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets	2,223,400,000
Current Cash	681,300,000
Current Liabilities	823,800,000
Current Debt	54,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	772,700,000
Change in NCWC	434,000,000
EBIT	348,500,000
Tax Provision	85,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	380,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-255,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	871,338,118

Current Assets	2,086,100,000
Current Cash	817,100,000
Current Liabilities	1,049,200,000
Current Debt	118,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	338,700,000
Change in NCWC	147,600,000
EBIT	611,800,000
Tax Provision	86,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization	420,200,000
Capital Expenditure	-192,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	806,459,427

Current Assets	2,287,800,000
Current Cash	1,187,900,000
Current Liabilities	974,400,000
Current Debt	65,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	191,100,000
Change in NCWC	-130,200,000
EBIT	669,600,000
Tax Provision	3,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization	370,300,000
Capital Expenditure	-234,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	602,989,230

Current Assets	2,126,300,000
Current Cash	1,050,700,000
Current Liabilities	802,900,000
Current Debt	48,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	321,300,000
Change in NCWC	-146,000,000
EBIT	680,700,000
Tax Provision	-3,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization	379,600,000
Capital Expenditure	-273,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	640,400,000

Current Assets	2,200,300,000
Current Cash	989,700,000
Current Liabilities	792,100,000
Current Debt	48,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	467,300,000
Change in NCWC	41,800,000
EBIT	712,100,000
Tax Provision	-204,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	398,400,000
Capital Expenditure	-225,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	927,300,000

Current Assets	2,615,900,000
Current Cash	1,525,900,000
Current Liabilities	704,400,000
Current Debt	39,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	425,500,000
Change in NCWC	87,300,000
EBIT	546,800,000
Tax Provision	26,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	323,100,000
Capital Expenditure	-190,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	574,979,032

Current Assets	2,076,900,000
Current Cash	1,143,600,000
Current Liabilities	634,000,000
Current Debt	38,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	338,200,000
Change in NCWC	-15,900,000
EBIT	545,700,000
Tax Provision	-26,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization	302,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-121,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	711,100,000

Current Assets	1,781,700,000
Current Cash	841,400,000
Current Liabilities	611,000,000
Current Debt	24,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	354,100,000
Change in NCWC	-114,300,000
EBIT	273,500,000
Tax Provision	-52,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization	272,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-107,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	324,100,000

Current Assets	1,219,000,000
Current Cash	268,400,000
Current Liabilities	519,900,000
Current Debt	37,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	468,400,000
Change in NCWC	341,300,000
EBIT	103,000,000
Tax Provision	-83,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization	155,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-115,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	484,600,000

Current Assets	668,100,000
Current Cash	402,000,000
Current Liabilities	146,000,000
Current Debt	7,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)	127,100,000
Change in NCWC	86,700,000
EBIT	114,500,000
Tax Provision	7,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization	76,800,000
Capital Expenditure	-32,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow	208,744,843

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