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Post Holdings Inc – Breakfast Cereal Manufacturing
post holdings, headquartered in st. louis, missouri, is a consumer packaged goods holding company operating in the center-of-the-store, refrigerated, active nutrition and private label food categories. post's center-of-the-store portfolio includes diverse offerings to meet the taste and nutritional needs of all families, including such favorites as honey bunches of oats®, pebbles™, great grains®, post® shredded wheat, post® raisin bran, grape-nuts® and honeycomb®. post also offers premium natural and organic cereal, granola and snacks through the attune®, uncle sam®, erewhon®, golden temple™, peace cereal®, sweet home farm® and willamette valley granola company™ brands. post's refrigerated portfolio, through michael foods, includes value-added egg products, refrigerated potato products and cheese and other dairy case products and the papetti's®, all whites®, better'n eggs®, easy eggs®, abbotsford farms®, simply potatoes® and crystal farms® brands. post's active nutrition platform
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $539.29
Latest Price $103.76
Relative Value 81% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
New Ticker
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 7.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 5.0%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 7.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 0.938 0.893
2025 1.01 0.915
2026 1.09 0.937
2027 1.17 0.959
2028 1.25 0.982
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 37.6 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 28.0 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 4.69 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 32.7 billion.

There are presently 60.7 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 539.29.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 1,478,500,000
Current Cash 93,300,000
Current Liabilities 805,300,000
Current Debt 2,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 582,300,000
Change in NCWC -190,400,000
EBIT 640,800,000
Tax Provision 99,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 407,100,000
Capital Expenditure -303,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 399,658,119
Current Assets 2,223,400,000
Current Cash 681,300,000
Current Liabilities 823,800,000
Current Debt 54,400,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 772,700,000
Change in NCWC 434,000,000
EBIT 348,500,000
Tax Provision 85,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 380,200,000
Capital Expenditure -255,300,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 871,338,118
Current Assets 2,086,100,000
Current Cash 817,100,000
Current Liabilities 1,049,200,000
Current Debt 118,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 338,700,000
Change in NCWC 147,600,000
EBIT 611,800,000
Tax Provision 86,600,000
Depreciation and Amortization 420,200,000
Capital Expenditure -192,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 806,459,427
Current Assets 2,287,800,000
Current Cash 1,187,900,000
Current Liabilities 974,400,000
Current Debt 65,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 191,100,000
Change in NCWC -130,200,000
EBIT 669,600,000
Tax Provision 3,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 370,300,000
Capital Expenditure -234,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 602,989,230
Current Assets 2,126,300,000
Current Cash 1,050,700,000
Current Liabilities 802,900,000
Current Debt 48,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 321,300,000
Change in NCWC -146,000,000
EBIT 680,700,000
Tax Provision -3,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization 379,600,000
Capital Expenditure -273,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 640,400,000
Current Assets 2,200,300,000
Current Cash 989,700,000
Current Liabilities 792,100,000
Current Debt 48,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 467,300,000
Change in NCWC 41,800,000
EBIT 712,100,000
Tax Provision -204,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 398,400,000
Capital Expenditure -225,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 927,300,000
Current Assets 2,615,900,000
Current Cash 1,525,900,000
Current Liabilities 704,400,000
Current Debt 39,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 425,500,000
Change in NCWC 87,300,000
EBIT 546,800,000
Tax Provision 26,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 323,100,000
Capital Expenditure -190,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 574,979,032
Current Assets 2,076,900,000
Current Cash 1,143,600,000
Current Liabilities 634,000,000
Current Debt 38,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 338,200,000
Change in NCWC -15,900,000
EBIT 545,700,000
Tax Provision -26,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 302,800,000
Capital Expenditure -121,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 711,100,000
Current Assets 1,781,700,000
Current Cash 841,400,000
Current Liabilities 611,000,000
Current Debt 24,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 354,100,000
Change in NCWC -114,300,000
EBIT 273,500,000
Tax Provision -52,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 272,800,000
Capital Expenditure -107,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 324,100,000
Current Assets 1,219,000,000
Current Cash 268,400,000
Current Liabilities 519,900,000
Current Debt 37,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 468,400,000
Change in NCWC 341,300,000
EBIT 103,000,000
Tax Provision -83,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 155,800,000
Capital Expenditure -115,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 484,600,000
Current Assets 668,100,000
Current Cash 402,000,000
Current Liabilities 146,000,000
Current Debt 7,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 127,100,000
Change in NCWC 86,700,000
EBIT 114,500,000
Tax Provision 7,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 76,800,000
Capital Expenditure -32,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 208,744,843

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