DCF Tool

POST

Post Holdings Inc – Breakfast Cereal Manufacturing
Post Holdings, Inc., headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a consumer packaged goods holding company operating in the center-of-the-store, refrigerated, foodservice, food ingredient and convenient nutrition food categories. Through its Post Consumer Brands business, Post is a leader in the North American ready-to-eat cereal category offering a broad portfolio including recognized brands such as Honey Bunches of Oats®, Pebbles™, Great Grains® and Malt-O-Meal® bag cereal. Post also is a leader in the United Kingdom ready-to-eat cereal category with the iconic Weetabix® brand. As a leader in refrigerated foods, Post delivers innovative, value-added egg and refrigerated potato products to the foodservice channel and the retail refrigerated side dish category, offering side dish, egg, cheese and sausage products through the Bob Evans®, Simply Potatoes® and Crystal Farms® brands. Post’s publicly-traded subsidiary BellRing Brands, Inc. is a holding company operating in the global convenient nutrition category through its primary brands of Premier Protein®, Dymatize® and PowerBar®. Post participates in the private brand food category through its investment with third parties in 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., a leading, private brand centric, consumer products holding company.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $2,375.49
Latest Price $81.91
Relative Value 97% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 27.5%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 4.5%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 27.5%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2022 2.08 1.99
2023 2.65 2.43
2024 3.38 2.96
2025 4.31 3.61
2026 5.49 4.41
Terminal Value

Assuming the company was sold after the projection period at an exit multiple of 30, the terminal value of the company would be 165 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 127 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 15.4 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 142 billion.

There are presently 59.8 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 2375.49.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 4,172,200,000
Current Cash 1,634,200,000
Current Liabilities 2,098,400,000
Current Debt 237,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 677,400,000
Change in NCWC 486,300,000
EBIT 1,223,600,000
Tax Provision 173,200,000
Depreciation and Amortization 840,400,000
Capital Expenditure -385,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,804,018,854
Current Assets 2,287,800,000
Current Cash 1,187,900,000
Current Liabilities 974,400,000
Current Debt 65,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 191,100,000
Change in NCWC -130,200,000
EBIT 669,600,000
Tax Provision 3,500,000
Depreciation and Amortization 370,300,000
Capital Expenditure -234,600,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 602,989,230
Current Assets 2,126,300,000
Current Cash 1,050,700,000
Current Liabilities 802,900,000
Current Debt 48,600,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 321,300,000
Change in NCWC -146,000,000
EBIT 680,700,000
Tax Provision -3,900,000
Depreciation and Amortization 379,600,000
Capital Expenditure -273,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 640,400,000
Current Assets 2,200,300,000
Current Cash 989,700,000
Current Liabilities 792,100,000
Current Debt 48,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 467,300,000
Change in NCWC 41,800,000
EBIT 712,100,000
Tax Provision -204,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 398,400,000
Capital Expenditure -225,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 927,300,000
Current Assets 2,615,900,000
Current Cash 1,525,900,000
Current Liabilities 704,400,000
Current Debt 39,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 425,500,000
Change in NCWC 87,300,000
EBIT 546,800,000
Tax Provision 26,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 323,100,000
Capital Expenditure -190,400,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 574,979,032
Current Assets 2,076,900,000
Current Cash 1,143,600,000
Current Liabilities 634,000,000
Current Debt 38,900,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 338,200,000
Change in NCWC -15,900,000
EBIT 545,700,000
Tax Provision -26,800,000
Depreciation and Amortization 302,800,000
Capital Expenditure -121,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 711,100,000
Current Assets 1,781,700,000
Current Cash 841,400,000
Current Liabilities 611,000,000
Current Debt 24,800,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 354,100,000
Change in NCWC -114,300,000
EBIT 273,500,000
Tax Provision -52,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 272,800,000
Capital Expenditure -107,900,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 324,100,000
Current Assets 1,219,000,000
Current Cash 268,400,000
Current Liabilities 519,900,000
Current Debt 37,700,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 468,400,000
Change in NCWC 341,300,000
EBIT 103,000,000
Tax Provision -83,700,000
Depreciation and Amortization 155,800,000
Capital Expenditure -115,500,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 484,600,000
Current Assets 668,100,000
Current Cash 402,000,000
Current Liabilities 146,000,000
Current Debt 7,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 127,100,000
Change in NCWC 86,700,000
EBIT 114,500,000
Tax Provision 7,100,000
Depreciation and Amortization 76,800,000
Capital Expenditure -32,800,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 208,744,843

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