|Relative Value||52% overvalued|
An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 24.7%.
The calculated WACC is 14.2%. This value is used as the default discount rate.
Assuming a growth rate of 24.7%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.
The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.
|Year||Future flow (million)||Present value (million)|
Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 356 million. This corresponds to a present value of 161 million.
The total present value of the projected cash flows is 92.5 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 253 million.
There are presently 54.1 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 4.68.
The following data was to determine the past cash flows.
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||56,617,000|
|Change in NCWC||23,440,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||10,005,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||12,756,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||33,177,000|
|Change in NCWC||31,654,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||7,759,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||29,950,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||1,523,000|
|Change in NCWC||-7,505,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||6,352,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||-15,563,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||9,028,000|
|Change in NCWC||-2,326,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||5,987,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||-7,034,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||11,354,000|
|Change in NCWC||616,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||6,716,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||7,071,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||10,738,000|
|Change in NCWC||-9,545,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||7,992,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||-6,511,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||20,283,000|
|Change in NCWC||2,062,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||7,974,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||176,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||18,221,000|
|Change in NCWC||2,282,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||9,345,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||-41,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||15,939,000|
|Change in NCWC||4,814,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||12,556,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||355,000|
|Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC)||11,125,000|
|Change in NCWC||7,534,000|
|Depreciation and Amortization||16,393,000|
|Unlevered Free Cash Flow||4,375,000|
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