DCF Tool

PRTY

Party City Holdco Inc – All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers (except Tobacco Stores)
Party City Holdco Inc. is the leading party goods company by revenue in North America and, the company believes, the largest vertically integrated supplier of decorated party goods globally by revenue. The Company is a popular one-stop shopping destination for party supplies, balloons, and costumes. In addition to being a great retail brand, the Company is a global, world-class organization that combines state-of-the-art manufacturing and sourcing operations, and sophisticated wholesale operations complemented by a multi-channel retailing strategy and e-commerce retail operations. The Company is the leading player in its category, vertically integrated and unique in its breadth and depth. The Company designs, manufactures, sources and distributes party goods, including paper and plastic tableware, metallic and latex balloons, Halloween and other costumes, accessories, novelties, gifts and stationery throughout the world. The Company's retail operations include approximately 830 specialty retail party supply stores (including franchise stores) throughout North America operating under the names Party City and Halloween City, and e-commerce websites, principally through the domain name PartyCity.com.
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $11.47
Latest Price $1.58
Relative Value 86% undervalued
Thoughts on this result? Let us know.
Ad
Cash Flow (Millions)
Analysis Parameters
%
%
%
New Ticker
Ad
Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of -8.4%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 7.3%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of -8.4%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (million) Present value (million)
2022 106 98.7
2023 97.0 84.2
2024 88.8 71.8
2025 81.3 61.2
2026 74.5 52.2
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 1420 million. This corresponds to a present value of 928 million.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 368 million. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 1300 million.

There are presently 113.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 11.47.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 698,483,000
Current Cash 47,914,000
Current Liabilities 570,059,000
Current Debt 85,554,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 166,064,000
Change in NCWC 930,000
EBIT 96,550,000
Tax Provision 5,708,000
Depreciation and Amortization 65,610,000
Capital Expenditure -79,222,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 83,868,000
Current Assets 809,260,000
Current Cash 119,532,000
Current Liabilities 713,877,000
Current Debt 189,283,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 165,134,000
Change in NCWC -199,482,000
EBIT -199,310,000
Tax Provision -156,653,000
Depreciation and Amortization 76,506,000
Capital Expenditure -51,128,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -373,414,000
Current Assets 894,130,000
Current Cash 34,917,000
Current Liabilities 694,927,000
Current Debt 200,330,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 364,616,000
Change in NCWC -204,940,000
EBIT 124,631,000
Tax Provision -1,305,000
Depreciation and Amortization 81,116,000
Capital Expenditure -61,733,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -60,926,000
Current Assets 1,023,835,000
Current Cash 58,909,000
Current Liabilities 711,437,000
Current Debt 316,067,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 569,556,000
Change in NCWC 129,865,000
EBIT 281,275,000
Tax Provision 38,778,000
Depreciation and Amortization 78,575,000
Capital Expenditure -85,661,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 336,557,190
Current Assets 877,153,000
Current Cash 54,291,000
Current Liabilities 682,521,000
Current Debt 299,350,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 439,691,000
Change in NCWC -16,750,000
EBIT 286,644,000
Tax Provision -27,196,000
Depreciation and Amortization 85,168,000
Capital Expenditure -66,970,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 288,092,000
Current Assets 880,824,000
Current Cash 64,610,000
Current Liabilities 493,259,000
Current Debt 133,486,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 456,441,000
Change in NCWC -24,116,000
EBIT 270,480,000
Tax Provision 69,237,000
Depreciation and Amortization 83,630,000
Capital Expenditure -81,948,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 147,747,019
Current Assets 789,915,000
Current Cash 42,919,000
Current Liabilities 407,127,000
Current Debt 140,688,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 480,557,000
Change in NCWC 26,471,000
EBIT 269,871,000
Tax Provision 7,409,000
Depreciation and Amortization 80,515,000
Capital Expenditure -78,825,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 186,129,479
Current Assets 847,339,000
Current Cash 47,214,000
Current Liabilities 383,624,000
Current Debt 37,585,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 454,086,000
Change in NCWC 34,205,000
EBIT 240,886,000
Tax Provision 25,211,000
Depreciation and Amortization 82,890,000
Capital Expenditure -78,241,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 205,072,862

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investing advice. For more information on the advantages and limitations of DCF analysis see background. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. No warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. By using this site you agree that under no circumstances shall Valuation Tools LLC be held liable for any loss or damage caused by information obtained from this website including any articles, data, videos, its social media accounts, or any other materials.