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PSX

Phillips 66 – Petroleum Refineries
safety. honor. commitment. we are phillips 66, and we manufacture energy products you use every day. we refine and market petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and lubricants; gather and process natural gas and natural gas liquids (ngl) for powering businesses, heating homes, cooking and electricity; and manufacture petrochemicals, polymers and plastics found in cars, electronics, and other everyday goods. through financial strength and safe, reliable operations, we are delivering on a business strategy to enhance returns, grow the company, increase distributions to shareholders and build a highperforming team. we are phillips 66, and with our partners and suppliers, we create jobs. we have 14,000 colleagues in america and around the world. together we’re building a company founded on safety, honor and commitment. safety. we protect each other, our environment, and our communities. honor. we stand behind our word, and you can count on us to do the right
Analysis Results
Intrinsic Value $1,162.69
Latest Price $162.49
Relative Value 86% undervalued
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Cash Flow (Billions)
Analysis Parameters
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Analysis Details
Growth Rate Projection

An exponential growth model was fit to the past cash flow data, giving more weight to more recent years. This model determined a growth rate estimate of 20.7%.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The calculated WACC is 6.1%. This value is used as the default discount rate.

Value of Future Flows

Assuming a growth rate of 20.7%, the cash flows for the next 5 years are projected.

The present value of each year's flow is adjusted to present value using the discount rate.

Year Future flow (billion) Present value (billion)
2024 11.4 10.7
2025 13.7 12.2
2026 16.6 13.9
2027 20.0 15.8
2028 24.1 18.0
Terminal Value

Assuming a growth rate after the projection years of 2.0%, the terminal value of the company would be 607 billion. This corresponds to a present value of 427 billion.

Intrinsic Value Per Share

The total present value of the projected cash flows is 70.6 billion. Adding in the terminal value gives a total present value of 497 billion.

There are presently 428.0 million outstanding shares, so the intrinsic value per share is 1162.69.

Financial Statements

The following data was to determine the past cash flows.

Current Assets 19,941,000,000
Current Cash 3,323,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,856,000,000
Current Debt 1,482,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,244,000,000
Change in NCWC 1,815,000,000
EBIT 10,297,000,000
Tax Provision 2,230,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,977,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,418,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 9,246,001,584
Current Assets 21,922,000,000
Current Cash 6,133,000,000
Current Liabilities 15,889,000,000
Current Debt 529,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 429,000,000
Change in NCWC 191,000,000
EBIT 15,302,000,000
Tax Provision 3,248,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,629,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,194,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 11,532,898,148
Current Assets 14,697,000,000
Current Cash 3,147,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,801,000,000
Current Debt 1,489,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 238,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,993,000,000
EBIT 3,802,000,000
Tax Provision 146,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,605,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,860,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,234,981,609
Current Assets 13,276,000,000
Current Cash 2,514,000,000
Current Liabilities 9,518,000,000
Current Debt 987,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,231,000,000
Change in NCWC 549,000,000
EBIT -309,000,000
Tax Provision -1,250,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,395,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,920,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -1,285,000,000
Current Assets 14,395,000,000
Current Cash 1,614,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,646,000,000
Current Debt 547,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,682,000,000
Change in NCWC 360,000,000
EBIT 5,482,000,000
Tax Provision 801,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,341,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,873,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,258,999,042
Current Assets 13,209,000,000
Current Cash 3,019,000,000
Current Liabilities 8,935,000,000
Current Debt 67,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,322,000,000
Change in NCWC 117,000,000
EBIT 7,907,000,000
Tax Provision 1,572,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,356,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,639,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 5,071,449,429
Current Assets 14,390,000,000
Current Cash 3,119,000,000
Current Liabilities 10,107,000,000
Current Debt 41,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,205,000,000
Change in NCWC 149,000,000
EBIT 4,002,000,000
Tax Provision -1,693,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,318,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,832,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 3,637,000,000
Current Assets 12,680,000,000
Current Cash 2,711,000,000
Current Liabilities 9,463,000,000
Current Debt 550,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,056,000,000
Change in NCWC -639,000,000
EBIT 2,509,000,000
Tax Provision 547,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,168,000,000
Capital Expenditure -2,844,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow -432,391,145
Current Assets 12,256,000,000
Current Cash 3,074,000,000
Current Liabilities 7,531,000,000
Current Debt 44,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,695,000,000
Change in NCWC 458,000,000
EBIT 6,127,000,000
Tax Provision 1,764,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 1,078,000,000
Capital Expenditure -5,764,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 110,775,645
Current Assets 16,696,000,000
Current Cash 5,207,000,000
Current Liabilities 11,094,000,000
Current Debt 842,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 1,237,000,000
Change in NCWC 307,000,000
EBIT 5,893,000,000
Tax Provision 1,654,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 995,000,000
Capital Expenditure -3,773,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,725,390,426
Current Assets 19,237,000,000
Current Cash 5,400,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,931,000,000
Current Debt 24,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 930,000,000
Change in NCWC -1,089,000,000
EBIT 5,650,000,000
Tax Provision 1,844,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 947,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,779,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,843,621,787
Current Assets 17,962,000,000
Current Cash 3,474,000,000
Current Liabilities 12,482,000,000
Current Debt 13,000,000
Non-Cash Working Capital (NCWC) 2,019,000,000
Change in NCWC 643,000,000
EBIT 7,678,000,000
Tax Provision 2,500,000,000
Depreciation and Amortization 913,000,000
Capital Expenditure -1,721,000,000
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4,618,263,157

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